Can Gordon Brown, given nine days and a package of ‘home rule’ promises, persuade enough Scottish Labour supporters to pull back from voting Yes to independence next Thursday and save the Kingdom?
The former Labour Prime Minister, who had pretty much vanished into the wilderness following his miserable defeat in the 2010 general election, is suddenly seen as the only man who can rescue the situation.
That’s because the key trend showing up in recent polls is that Scottish Labour supporters are increasingly moving over to the Yes camp.
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With party leader Ed Miliband and his sidekick Douglas Alexander clearly ineffectual, and with the former Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, head of the Better Together campaign, having been trounced by SNP leader Alex Salmond in the second TV debate, it seems the only senior Scottish Labour figure left with any credibility is Brown.
So while the current party leaders in London - David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg – hide under their duvets and pray for their own political careers as well as the future of Great Britain, Brown will tour Scotland until referendum day, explaining the home rule package on offer if Scots vote No to full independence.
Although the package is backed by the Tories and Lib Dems, there were no Better Together banners on show last night when Brown launched his 'save the Union' tour at a former miners’ welfare club before a largely Labour audience.
"The status quo is no longer an option", he said. "The choice is now between irreversible separation, or voting for a stronger Scottish parliament. We are talking about a big change in the constitution. It's like home rule in the UK. We would be moving quite close to something near to federalism in a country where 85 per cent of the population is from one nation. Change is in the air and change is coming."
Like Lazarus, Brown has risen again. He even looked relaxed. Gone were the dark clouds of depression that were said to have surrounded him after the 2010 general election defeat. Gone was the angry mood which led him to snap during the 2010 campaign about a loyal Labour voter who raised the issue of immigration as "that bigoted woman".
As the Daily Telegraph morning briefing put it: “Gordon's Alive”. While the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire tweeted: “National emergency so there’s been a coup. Gordon Brown is back as PM for 10 days. David who?”
It’s quite a transformation given that Brown has been mercilessly trashed as the Man with the Jonah Curse, who turns everything he touches to dust.
He was ridiculed as having the Midas Touch in Reverse after flogging off for £2 billion more than half of Britain's gold reserves in the period 1999-2002, only to see its value leap to an estimated £11bn by 2012, laying him open to the Tory charge that he had lost the British taxpayer £9bn.
Hours before he spoke yesterday, it seemed the old curse had dogged him again when just three companies - Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Stagecoach – saw more than £2bn in total wiped off the value of their shares amid fears that Scotland could be heading for a Yes vote.
Those fears were exacerbated by the weekend’s YouGov poll showing the Yes vote creeping ahead, largely because of Labour supporters being tempted by the Nationalists' argument.
Today that trend appears to have been confirmed in a new TNS poll. It shows a growing number of respondents saying they will definitely vote on 18 September and that of those certain to vote 41 per cent aim to say Yes and 41 per cent No. The remaining 18 per cent are determined to play their part but have yet to decide. As the Daily Mail reports, that means “the fate of the Union lies in the hands of 600,000 wavering voters”.
Can Gordon Brown single-handedly reverse the trend? It’s a tall order. But if can he pull it off and avoid a constitutional disaster for Britian he will surely change his place in history from brooding failure to heroic saviour.
For a balanced, in-depth discussion of the historical context of the current debate about Scottish independence, read The Week's ebook, Independence for Scotland?, available now from Amazon.
