Can Japan's new prime minister govern effectively?

If at first you don't succeed, try again. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's new prime minister, seems to have taken that lesson to heart: He ran for the office four times — and only succeeded on the fifth attempt.

Ishiba is a "popular gadfly" and populist who has often irritated his colleagues, said The Economist. His history of outspokenness may cause him to "struggle to govern." That's why his victory in the prime minister race was a "surprise win." The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed with few interruptions since 1955, but it has been damaged by recent scandals. Ishiba's backers may have hoped to "mollify an angry public." Despite all that, The Economist said, Ishiba's rise "does not herald a drastic change" in Japan's policies.

What Ishiba wants for Japan

The new prime minister is one of the "leading defense experts in the political world," Kosuke Takahashi said at The Diplomat. Ishiba served twice as Japan's defense minister and had a somewhat hawkish position on China, notably proposing a "NATO-style collective security arrangement in Asia." That's something most experts believe would be difficult to achieve, Takahashi said, and why Ishiba's administration "may face a difficult start in terms of diplomacy and security."

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The LDP "has broken with over a decade of orthodoxy" by selecting Ishiba, Gearoid Reidy said at Bloomberg Opinion. Japan's longest-serving postwar leaders have been men with "strong plans," but the new prime minister doesn't seem to fit that description. "Nailing down what Ishiba wants" for Japan is "like nailing jelly to a wall." He has given contradictory statements on issues ranging from nuclear power to monetary policy. Ishiba is "scandal-free" and "affable," Reidy said, but his rise to the top may mostly reflect a "desire for change in the ruling party."

Ishiba's prime ministership "has implications for global security," Charlie Campbell said at Time. Japan has joined the United States in "checking China's assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific." The country has beefed up its defense spending in recent years and attempted to smooth over the longstanding antagonism with South Korea. But Ishiba's call for Japan to take "more control and responsibility" for its own security — and his support for developing nuclear weapons — has raised some alarms in foreign capitals. All of that, Campbell said, "may put him on collision course with Beijing."

Instant effects

Japan's stock market "tumbled" after Ishiba's victory, said CNBC. He defeated Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi in the final round of LDP voting — and Takaichi was known to oppose raising interest rates by Japan's central bank. Her defeat means the bank "will not face any political hurdle for hiking rates further," said one analyst. A higher rate usually "strengthens the yen" which makes Japan's exports "less competitive," said CNBC.

Ishiba may not have much time to get comfortable in the new job. Three days after winning the LDP vote, he called for a snap election for Oct. 27, said the BBC. It's an important yes-or-no moment for the country and its leader. "It is important," Ishiba said, for the new administration to be "judged by the people as soon as possible."