What will it take to free the hostages in Gaza?

The release of four captives held in Gaza by Hamas has raised hopes that others may follow, but intelligence experts warn that negotiations remain immensely delicate. 

When Hamas gunmen crossed Israel's border on 7 October, the Palestinian militant group is thought to have captured more than 200 people, including Israeli soldiers and civilians, who range in age from under a year old to over 85.

Officials from the US, Turkey, Egypt and France have been working to try to free the hostages, but Qatar is reportedly a major contributor. 

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Four hostages – two Israeli-Americans and two Israelis – have been freed so far and Qatar is playing "an outsized role", said The New York Times (NYT). The tiny Gulf state has been instrumental in negotiations because it is an "American ally with open lines to Hamas" which has a "long history of brokering deals with groups that the United States considers terrorists".

According to the paper, when Hamas released two more captives, Judith and Natalie Raanan, an American-Israeli mother and daughter, last Friday night, "one of the first things American officials did was thank the Qataris".

Amid the relief following news of the captives' release, the families of the remaining hostages "desperately hope this is just the beginning", the NYT said.

What did the papers say?

Following the release of four hostages, the "hope" now is that negotiators will be able to "reach a deal for a bigger group of hostages released at once", said CNN.

Israel is pressing for a "comprehensive plan for such a release", said the broadcaster, citing sources, but "determining how to release a larger round of hostages – if it were ultimately agreed upon – has been an extraordinarily complex undertaking."

Israel has been holding off making a ground incursion into Gaza to allow for those complex negotiations to take place. But the delay has been largely due to pressure on the Israeli government from anguished families, said The Economist.

Although it was "originally inclined to rush into Gaza" without thinking of the hostages' safety, the government "has since announced that their rescue is a 'top priority'", the newspaper said.

In a bid to shore up the safety of the hostages until any release plans are hammered out, the Israeli military has begun dropping leaflets in Gaza asking for information on captives' whereabouts and offering rewards and protection for informants' homes, Sky News reported.

"If your will is to live in peace and to have a better future for your children, do the humanitarian deed immediately and share verified and valuable information about hostages being held in your area," the leaflet said.

What next?

Most aspects of the current crisis feel intractable, but there is hope that an "extraordinary plan" being brokered by Qatar could lead to the release of all of Hamas's hostages, said Jewish News.

The plan would be for all remaining hostages in the Gaza Strip, as well as the bodies of Israeli soldiers held by Hamas since 2014, to be returned in exchange for "greater aid into the Strip and free passage out of Gaza for Hamas leaders and their families", the newspaper said.

Short of such a complete plan, a separate negotiation between representatives of Hamas, Qatar, Egypt and Israel has emerged, which aims to secure the release of 50 captives. But this has so far "stumbled over the militant group's demand that Israel allow fuel deliveries into Gaza", said The Wall Street Journal.

Israel is reluctant to do such a deal, the newspaper said, because of concerns the fuel "could end up in Hamas's hands" and potentially be used to power rockets fired into Israeli territory.

As the days pass without any immediate sign of resolution, the "anguish of the hostages' families" is feeding a "wider fury" in many Israelis over what they see as the government's "slow and inept" response to the crisis, said The Economist.

The plight of the hostages is primarily a humanitarian issue, but "the issue is also deeply political", the paper said. Since the attack, the movement that opposes Benjamin Netanyahu's government has suspended all demonstrations against it. "But the respite may not last."