Will young people refuse to vote in the 2024 presidential election?

Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, many young people seem to have lost faith in the democratic process. Some plan to avoid voting entirely, unimpressed by both Democratic candidate Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump.

The voter turnout under age 30 has increased in recent presidential elections. The 2020 and 2018 elections each logged "unusually high turnout" among young voters, said estimates from the University of Florida's Michael McDonald cited by The Washington Post. Youth participation was record-breaking in 2020, even higher than in the 2008 election, which Barack Obama won after securing 66% of the under-30 vote. But a fall 2023 poll released by the Harvard Kennedy School indicated that young Americans are less likely to vote in 2024. "At this point in the 2020 election cycle, 57% of Americans between ages 18 and 29 were planning to vote; that number has since declined to 49%," said Teen Vogue. 

Though Gen Z voters generally prefer Biden over Trump, younger generations are also distancing themselves from the president. "Poll after poll" suggests a huge shift in the electorate, said Politico: "Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones." This is a reversal, as Democratic candidates typically win the youth vote while Republicans lead with seniors. The polls may be wrong — they did underestimate Trump in the last two elections. But "if these changes are real, it would have profound effects on the coalitions both campaigns are building," Politico added. Biden still leads Trump in voters ages 18 to 29, but that margin is much smaller than it was four years ago; and if Trump's young voters are fewer than Biden's, they are also more enthusiastic. 

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Why are young people so disgruntled? To begin with, many do not support Israel's war in Gaza. A letter signed by leaders of youth organization-focused groups in November 2023 warned that the Biden administration's position on Israel "risks millions of young voters staying home or voting third party," said NBC News. Since October, over 34,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces (about 72% of them women and children, according to Gaza's Government Media Office). Thousands of college students protested the war in the last week, outraged over the United States' continued support of Israel. Separately, Biden recently signed a law that would ban the popular social media app TikTok. If youth protests are swarmed with police and TikTok is gone, where can young people speak out? At the polls, it seems — or, quite possibly, not at them.

What did the commentators say?

"Young voters are stuck in a political Groundhog Day — and many are disillusioned by the lack of choice or younger candidates who reflect their views," said Erica Pandey at Axios. The problem is not just this year's presidential candidates, but fatigue on a grander scale. "Confidence in the nation's institutions has plummeted among younger Americans over the last two election cycles," said The Harvard Gazette. 

It's no surprise that backing for Biden has waned. "He was never young people's preferred candidate in the 2020 primaries; young Americans were reluctant to support him; and though 2020 saw a record number of young people turn out, they still tended to be voting against Trump, rather than for Biden, in the general election," said Christian Paz, a political reporter at Vox. In addition to their disapproval of funding Israel's war on Gaza, young people consider Biden not "progressive enough" on issues like inflation, health care and abortion access.

"The real threat to Biden is that younger voters, especially college-educated voters, won't turn out for him in the election," Jonathan Zimmerman, a professor of history of education at the University of Pennsylvania, said to The Guardian. "I wouldn't expect that the protesters on campuses today are going to vote for Trump … The danger is much simpler: that they simply won't vote." 

What next?

Polls show Biden and Trump neck and neck in several key swing states, so youth turnout could have a real impact. Young people seem to realize Biden's reelection depends on their support, but are waiting and hoping for his campaign to address their concerns more directly. Biden could call for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza — which young Americans support by a five-to-one ratio, said a recent Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll. Biden could also alter his campaign strategy to focus more forcefully on issues that are important to young generations, such as climate accomplishments.