Why the forecast for nuclear war is clearing — a bit

A protester.
(Image credit: Illustrated | iStock)

Time for your weekly nuclear winter forecast: The likelihood of fallout has lessened somewhat, with chances of a full-scale nuclear war looking slim. While forecasting the end of the world is a tricky business (as witnessed by countless millenarian groups down through the ages), there's reason to believe Russia and the Western world are a little bit farther from Armageddon than they were a month ago.

In early March, Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to take control of all Ukraine wasn't looking good, but the Kremlin wasn't willing to declare defeat. The world feared a frustrated Russia might decide to turn from its vaunted and vanquished heavily armored assaults to the shortcut of strategic nuclear weapons. Could a single "surgical" nuclear strike lead to a strategic global thermal nuclear war? We don't know, and it's probably better not to find out.

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Jason Fields

Jason Fields is a writer, editor, podcaster, and photographer who has worked at Reuters, The New York Times, The Associated Press, and The Washington Post. He hosts the Angry Planet podcast and is the author of the historical mystery "Death in Twilight."