Why the forecast for nuclear war is clearing — a bit


Time for your weekly nuclear winter forecast: The likelihood of fallout has lessened somewhat, with chances of a full-scale nuclear war looking slim. While forecasting the end of the world is a tricky business (as witnessed by countless millenarian groups down through the ages), there's reason to believe Russia and the Western world are a little bit farther from Armageddon than they were a month ago.
In early March, Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to take control of all Ukraine wasn't looking good, but the Kremlin wasn't willing to declare defeat. The world feared a frustrated Russia might decide to turn from its vaunted and vanquished heavily armored assaults to the shortcut of strategic nuclear weapons. Could a single "surgical" nuclear strike lead to a strategic global thermal nuclear war? We don't know, and it's probably better not to find out.
But as Russia's full-out assault on Kyiv and other cities in the center and west of Ukraine stalled, then retreated, there have been no signs Russia is planning to bring in strategic nukes. Instead, Russia is now looking toward the east of Ukraine, where it already controls some territory and is thought to have a miliary advantage in open terrain friendly to tanks. Smaller ambitions and better battlefield conditions point to a lesser chance of bringing out the nukes.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Meanwhile, in the West, two things are happening. One is the dying cry in the media and by experts for a NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine. There's no doubt the Ukrainians still want one, but for now, they've refocused on asking for weapons they can use themselves. And while there's talk that weapons rolling across the border will become ever more substantial, that's not the same thing as having NATO jets patrolling Ukrainian skies, looking for Russian targets.
The second development the NATO side is the reaction to Russian atrocities carried out on civilians in towns like Bucha. Despite press attention and perhaps the triggering of a few more sanctions, the West has shown it won't go to war over war crimes, or even "genocide." There will be many more such atrocities if Russia's past is any prologue, but the decision has clearly been made as to the Western response.
None of this is particularly cheering, and, as with any forecast, it's just a best guess based on the information available. But for now, chances of a world-ending war have declined. Everyone take a deep breath and let it out slowly.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jason Fields is a writer, editor, podcaster, and photographer who has worked at Reuters, The New York Times, The Associated Press, and The Washington Post. He hosts the Angry Planet podcast and is the author of the historical mystery "Death in Twilight."
-
July 5 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Saturday’s political cartoons include an extrajudicial detainment camp, 'alligator Alcatraz', and tax cuts for billionaires.
-
5 explosively funny cartoons about the 4th of July
Cartoons Artists take on liberty and justice for all, a terrifying firework, and more
-
Jeff in Venice: a "triumph of tackiness"?
In the Spotlight Locals protest as Bezos uses the city as a 'private amusement park' for his wedding celebrations
-
Ottawa Treaty: why are Russia's neighbours leaving anti-landmine agreement?
Today's Big Question Ukraine to follow Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as Nato looks to build a new ‘Iron Curtain' of millions of landmines
-
How drone warfare works
The Explainer From Ukraine to Iran, it has become clear that unmanned aircraft are rapidly revolutionising modern warfare
-
How far would Russia go for Iran?
Today's Big Question US air strikes represent an 'embarrassment, provocation and opportunity' all rolled into one for Vladimir Putin
-
Are the UK and Russia already at war?
Today's Big Question Moscow has long been on a 'menacing' war footing with London, says leading UK defence adviser
-
Is UK's new defence plan transformational or too little, too late?
Today's Big Question Labour's 10-year strategy 'an exercise in tightly bounded ambition' already 'overshadowed by a row over money'
-
How will the MoD's new cyber command unit work?
Today's Big Question Defence secretary outlines plans to combat 'intensifying' threat of cyberattacks from hostile states such as Russia
-
What are the different types of nuclear weapons?
The Explainer Speculation mounts that post-war taboo on nuclear weapons could soon be shattered by use of 'battlefield' missiles
-
The secret lives of Russian saboteurs
Under The Radar Moscow is recruiting criminal agents to sow chaos and fear among its enemies