Why the forecast for nuclear war is clearing — a bit
Time for your weekly nuclear winter forecast: The likelihood of fallout has lessened somewhat, with chances of a full-scale nuclear war looking slim. While forecasting the end of the world is a tricky business (as witnessed by countless millenarian groups down through the ages), there's reason to believe Russia and the Western world are a little bit farther from Armageddon than they were a month ago.
In early March, Russian President Vladimir Putin's plan to take control of all Ukraine wasn't looking good, but the Kremlin wasn't willing to declare defeat. The world feared a frustrated Russia might decide to turn from its vaunted and vanquished heavily armored assaults to the shortcut of strategic nuclear weapons. Could a single "surgical" nuclear strike lead to a strategic global thermal nuclear war? We don't know, and it's probably better not to find out.
But as Russia's full-out assault on Kyiv and other cities in the center and west of Ukraine stalled, then retreated, there have been no signs Russia is planning to bring in strategic nukes. Instead, Russia is now looking toward the east of Ukraine, where it already controls some territory and is thought to have a miliary advantage in open terrain friendly to tanks. Smaller ambitions and better battlefield conditions point to a lesser chance of bringing out the nukes.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Meanwhile, in the West, two things are happening. One is the dying cry in the media and by experts for a NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine. There's no doubt the Ukrainians still want one, but for now, they've refocused on asking for weapons they can use themselves. And while there's talk that weapons rolling across the border will become ever more substantial, that's not the same thing as having NATO jets patrolling Ukrainian skies, looking for Russian targets.
The second development the NATO side is the reaction to Russian atrocities carried out on civilians in towns like Bucha. Despite press attention and perhaps the triggering of a few more sanctions, the West has shown it won't go to war over war crimes, or even "genocide." There will be many more such atrocities if Russia's past is any prologue, but the decision has clearly been made as to the Western response.
None of this is particularly cheering, and, as with any forecast, it's just a best guess based on the information available. But for now, chances of a world-ending war have declined. Everyone take a deep breath and let it out slowly.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jason Fields is a writer, editor, podcaster, and photographer who has worked at Reuters, The New York Times, The Associated Press, and The Washington Post. He hosts the Angry Planet podcast and is the author of the historical mystery "Death in Twilight."
-
Today's political cartoons - November 12, 2024
Cartoons Tuesday's cartoons - judgemental looks, Europe's bumpy ride, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Will Gary Lineker's departure be an own goal for the BBC?
Today's Big Question Former star striker turned highest-paid presenter will leave Match of the Day after 25 years, with BBC head of sport reportedly declining to offer him a contract
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The potential impact of Trump tariffs for the UK
UK goods exports to the US could be hit with tariffs of up to 20% seriously affecting the British economy
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Incendiary device plot: Russia's 'rehearsals' for attacks on transatlantic flights
The Explainer Security officials warn of widespread Moscow-backed 'sabotage campaign' in retaliation for continued Western support for Ukraine
By The Week UK Published
-
Where is the safest place in a nuclear attack?
In Depth From safest countries to the most secure parts of buildings, these are the spots that offer the most protection
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
What happens if Russia declares war on Nato?
Today's Big Question Fears are growing after Vladimir Putin's 'unusually specific warning' to Western governments
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Missile escalation: will long-range rockets make a difference to Ukraine?
Today's Big Question Kyiv is hoping for permission to use US missiles to strike deep into Russian territory
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Atesh: the Ukrainian partisans taking on Russia
Under The Radar Underground resistance fighters are risking their lives to defend their country
By Elizabeth Carr-Ellis, The Week UK Published
-
Iran and Israel: is all-out war inevitable?
Talking Points Tehran has vowed revenge for assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, but Gaza ceasefire could offer way out
By The Week UK Published
-
'Second only to a nuclear bomb' – the controversial arms Russia is using in Ukraine
The Explainer Thermobaric bombs 'capable of vaporising human bodies' have been used against Ukraine
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
The peaceful archipelago that may take up arms
Under The Radar Russia's invasion of Ukraine has left the Åland Islands 'peculiarly vulnerable'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published