Humans are near peak life expectancy, study finds

What happened

Human life expectancy has just about peaked, according to a study published Monday in the journal Nature Aging, and barring a transformative breakthrough in medical science, people will top out at a maximum average age of around 87 — 90 for women, 84 for men.

Who said what

"We're basically suggesting that as long as we live now is about as long as we're going to live," said the lead study author S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago, to The New York Times. "We're squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies."

Life expectancy — an estimate of the average time a baby born in a given year might expect to live — is "one of the world's most important health measures," though an imperfect one, The Associated Press said. It "cannot account for deadly pandemics, miracle cures or other unforeseen developments that might kill or save millions of people."

Some scientists predicted that life expectancy would continue to rise "dramatically" as it had during the 20th century, "spurred on by innovations like water sanitation and antibiotics," the Times said. But Olshansky's study found that even if nobody died before 50, average peak life expectancy would barely rise, because our organs eventually fail.

What next?

Olshansky's "valuable addition to the mortality literature" persuasively showed that "we are reaching a plateau," University of Texas researcher Mark Hayward said to the AP. But some future breakthrough could still change that. Olshansky said the only way to radically increase our longevity would be to slow the aging process, a prospect he is "optimistic" about.

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