Why the NCAA title game won't necessarily be a defensive slog


March — well, April — madness is almost over. But first no. 3 Texas Tech will face off against no. 1 Virginia with the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament title on the line. The game tips off at 9:20 p.m. EST on CBS.
Defense is expected to dominate. The matchup is providing bettors with the lowest over/under — how many total points will be scored in the game — line in the past 20 years, per ESPN. One Las Vegas sports book set the line at 117.5. And statistics would seem to agree. Each program's head coach, Tony Bennett of Virginia and Chris Beard of Texas Tech, are known for implementing suffocating defenses. Texas Tech, in fact, was statistically the best defensive team in the country this season, per KemPom. And Virginia wasn't too far behind, finishing fifth.
That doesn't mean that fans should expect displays of sloppy offense, however. The game will most likely be low-scoring, but both offenses are efficient and well-constructed and led by players like Virginia's DeAndre Hunter, Kyle Guy, and Ty Jerome and Texas Tech's Jarrett Culver — who is a projected NBA lottery pick — and sharp-shooting Davide Moretti.
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Virginia actually has the third most efficient offense in the country, the seventh-best three point shooting percentage for a team, and the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio. Basically, the Cavaliers score on a high percentage of the their offensive possessions and don't turn the ball over.
Texas Tech is not as highly-rated offensively as Virginia, but they're a not-too-shabby 28th in offensive efficiency and have managed to shoot nearly 37 percent from beyond the three point arc. Most importantly, the Red Raiders have improved on the offensive end over the course of the season.
So, don't expect fireworks on Monday night. But that doesn't mean the game will be ugly.
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Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
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