Scientists predict above-average U.S. wildfire activity for 2020 after sharp drop in 2019

Last year brought the U.S. its lowest amount of wildfire destruction since 2004, but it's likely an anomaly in a period of increasing wildfire threats, according to a new analysis.

Despite climate change contributing to a longer fire season and drier vegetation, 2019 saw just 2.2 million acres burned in the U.S., compared to an average of 8.9 million from 2017 and 2018, E&E News reports.

The decrease trended nationwide, including in California — a welcome lull after 2018's Camp Fire was the deadliest in the country since 1918. Alaska was an exception, reports E&E News, though most wildfires there are in remote areas and do not threaten communities.

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Latest Videos From

The sharp decrease was likely due to heavier rainfall, but it doesn't change the long-term patterns.

"We're already assessing 2020," Jessica Gardetto of the National Interagency Fire Center told E&E News. "So far weather patterns are lining up to culminate in above-average fire activity this year."

Research scientist Brandon Collins of the Center for Fire Research and Outreach at the University of California, Berkeley told E&E News that wildfires will see up years and down years. "Sometimes I think it's just luck," he said.