The new coronavirus may be mutating to a less deadly form


Life will not return to normal anytime soon, even if states lift COVID-19 lockdowns in an attempt to revive hard-hit economies. Face masks will be de rigueur, people may be "trapped indoors for months," and crowded public events are out, science reporter Donald McNeil Jr. writes at The New York Times, citing more than 20 health and science experts. Until there's a vaccine, "if Americans pour back out in force, all will appear quiet for perhaps three weeks. Then the emergency rooms will get busy again."
Among the many things we don't yet understand about this new coronavirus is how deadly it is or how many people have been infected. "Fatality rates depend heavily on how overwhelmed hospitals get and what percentage of cases are tested," and those numbers keep getting revised in hard-hit areas, McNeil reports. People who die of the disease at home or in overwhelmed hospitals are not counted, but people with few or no symptoms are never tested, so "if you don't know how many people are infected, you don't know how deadly a virus is."
The changing fatality rate is one reason the models keep fluctuating, McNeil says, but "there may be good news buried in this inconsistency: The virus may also be mutating to cause fewer symptoms. In the movies, viruses become more deadly. In reality, they usually become less so, because asymptomatic strains reach more hosts. Even the 1918 Spanish flu virus eventually faded into the seasonal H1N1 flu."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
While we don't know the fatality rate or level of contagion, the "refrigerated trucks parked outside hospitals tell us all we need to know: It is far worse than a bad flu season," McNeil writes. How the pandemic ends depends on the virus' lethality, medical advances, and how individuals behave, he adds. "If we scrupulously protect ourselves and our loved ones, more of us will live. If we underestimate the virus, it will find us."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Today's political cartoons - March 29, 2025
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - my way or Norway, running orders, and more
By The Week US Published
-
5 tactically sound cartoons about the leaked Signal chat
Cartoons Artists take on the clown signal, baby steps, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Roast lamb shoulder with ginger and fresh turmeric recipe
The Week Recommends Succulent and tender and falls off the bone with ease
By The Week UK Published
-
Measles outbreak spreads, as does RFK Jr.'s influence
Speed Read The outbreak centered in Texas has grown to at least three states and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is promoting unproven treatments
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Five years on: How Covid changed everything
Feature We seem to have collectively forgotten Covid’s horrors, but they have completely reshaped politics
By The Week US Published
-
RFK Jr. offers alternative remedies as measles spreads
Speed Read Health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes unsupported claims about containing the spread as vaccine skepticism grows
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Texas outbreak brings 1st US measles death since 2015
Speed read The outbreak is concentrated in a 'close-knit, undervaccinated' Mennonite community in rural Gaines County
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Mystery illness spreading in Congo rapidly kills dozens
Speed Read The World Health Organization said 53 people have died in an outbreak that originated in a village where three children ate a bat carcass
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Ozempic can curb alcohol cravings, study finds
Speed read Weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may also be helpful in limiting alcohol consumption
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
New form of H5N1 bird flu found in US dairy cows
Speed Read This new form of bird flu is different from the version that spread through herds in the last year
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Microplastics accumulating in human brains, study finds
Speed Read The amount of tiny plastic particles found in human brains increased dramatically from 2016 to 2024
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published