The new coronavirus may be mutating to a less deadly form
Life will not return to normal anytime soon, even if states lift COVID-19 lockdowns in an attempt to revive hard-hit economies. Face masks will be de rigueur, people may be "trapped indoors for months," and crowded public events are out, science reporter Donald McNeil Jr. writes at The New York Times, citing more than 20 health and science experts. Until there's a vaccine, "if Americans pour back out in force, all will appear quiet for perhaps three weeks. Then the emergency rooms will get busy again."
Among the many things we don't yet understand about this new coronavirus is how deadly it is or how many people have been infected. "Fatality rates depend heavily on how overwhelmed hospitals get and what percentage of cases are tested," and those numbers keep getting revised in hard-hit areas, McNeil reports. People who die of the disease at home or in overwhelmed hospitals are not counted, but people with few or no symptoms are never tested, so "if you don't know how many people are infected, you don't know how deadly a virus is."
The changing fatality rate is one reason the models keep fluctuating, McNeil says, but "there may be good news buried in this inconsistency: The virus may also be mutating to cause fewer symptoms. In the movies, viruses become more deadly. In reality, they usually become less so, because asymptomatic strains reach more hosts. Even the 1918 Spanish flu virus eventually faded into the seasonal H1N1 flu."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
While we don't know the fatality rate or level of contagion, the "refrigerated trucks parked outside hospitals tell us all we need to know: It is far worse than a bad flu season," McNeil writes. How the pandemic ends depends on the virus' lethality, medical advances, and how individuals behave, he adds. "If we scrupulously protect ourselves and our loved ones, more of us will live. If we underestimate the virus, it will find us."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Saint Paul de Vence: a paradise for art lovers
The Week Recommends The hilltop gem in the French Riviera where 20th century modernism flourished
By Alexandra Zagalsky Published
-
'People in general want workers to earn a decent living'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
What might a Trump victory mean for the global economy?
Today's Big Question A second term in office for the 'America First' administration would send shockwaves far beyond the United States' shores
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
ACA opens 2025 enrollment, enters 2024 race
Speed Read Mike Johnson promises big changes to the Affordable Care Act if Trump wins the election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
McDonald's sued over E. coli linked to burger
Speed Read The outbreak has sickened at least 49 people in 10 states and left one dead
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Long Covid: study shows damage to brain's 'control centre'
The Explainer Research could help scientists understand long-term effects of Covid-19 as well as conditions such as MS and dementia
By The Week UK Published
-
FDA OKs new Covid vaccine, available soon
Speed read The CDC recommends the new booster to combat the widely-circulating KP.2 strain
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Mpox: how dangerous is new health emergency?
Today's Big Question Spread of potentially deadly sub-variant more like early days of HIV than Covid, say scientists
By The Week UK Published
-
What is POTS and why is it more common now?
The explainer The condition affecting young women
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Brexit, Matt Hancock and black swans: five takeaways from Covid inquiry report
The Explainer UK was 'unprepared' for pandemic and government 'failed' citizens with flawed response, says damning report
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Should masks be here to stay?
Talking Points New York Governor Kathy Hochul proposed a mask ban. Here's why she wants one — and why it may not make sense.
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US Published