Floridians started sheltering in place 2 weeks before DeSantis acted, data show

Many epidemiologists and their models predicted a wave of COVID-19 cases in Florida after some troubling early case numbers and Gov. Ron DeSantis' (R) continued refusal to act to shut down the state. So far, the Sunshine State has avoided those dire scenarios. "Why didn't Florida see an explosion of cases?" the Tampa Bay Times asks. An analysis of cellphone tracking data "indicates that while Florida's politicians debated beach closings and stay-at-home orders, residents took matters into their own hands."

DeSantis ordered stay-at-home orders on April 1, effective two days later. But Floridians had already started curbing their activity two weeks earlier, in a five day period that included the World Health Organization declaring COVID-19 a global pandemic, President Trump declaring a national emergency, the NBA suspending its season, Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson announcing they had contracted the new coronavirus, and the closure of Florida schools and Walt Disney World.

"People in the worst-hit counties were overwhelmingly staying home weeks before DeSantis' order went out — and even before the much-earlier orders issued by local governments," the Times reports. Public health experts had not expected this. "Whether it's because their schools closed or they were watching the news, they seemed to have started to act before they were explicitly told, 'Don't go out,'" Thomas Hladish, a University of Florida research scientist and disease modeler, told the Times. "That early action is almost certainly the biggest factor in why things weren't worse here."

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"I think the true heroes here are really the people of Florida," added Ali Mokdad, professor of health metric science at the University of Washington. "They knew it was dangerous, they reduced their mobility, and they're staying home way above what you and I expected." Floridians have started moving now, though, the data show, and the COVID-19 wave could still be building. Read more about the data and Florida's apparent luck at the Tampa Bay Times.