Why Trump still has a chance


With fewer than 100 days until November's general election, the polls aren't looking good for President Trump. Still, The Atlantic's Peter Nicholas noted there's a chance the economy could bounce back by the fall; the presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, could fail to inspire a strong turnout; or polling could simply be off the mark. Real Clear Politics election analyst Sean Trende, similarly argues that, while he considers a Trump victory unlikely, the president isn't too "far off where he needs to be" to get back in the race.
Ultimately, Trende thinks Trump probably has to make up about six points to catch Biden. Candidates have overcome worse odds than that in modern history, including George H.W. Bush, who trailed his Democratic opponent Michael Dukakis by 17 points in July. Trende and others don't think the '88 election is a great comparison for a variety of reasons, including the idea that Biden's lead has been defined more by its stability.
But either way, Trump has a smaller amount of ground to cover, and Trende points to his approval rating as an indicator that it's at least possible he can. In Trende's view, Trump seems to have bottomed out at 42 percent, which suggests he can't win. But there's also a chance the current spikes in coronavirus cases will begin their descent, potentially allowing Trump to gain an extra bump to get back to 45 percent approval, which Trende has pegged as the target number for a competitive election. Tim O'Donnell
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
Abrego released from jail, faces Uganda deportation
Speed Read The wrongly deported Kilmar Abrego García is expected to be detained at an ICE check-in and deported to Uganda
-
Trump arms National Guard in DC, threatens other cities
speed read His next targets are Chicago, New York and Baltimore
-
Judge: Trump's US attorney in NJ serving unlawfully
Speed Read The appointment of Trump's former personal defense lawyer, Alina Habba, as acting US attorney in New Jersey was ruled 'unlawful'
-
Third judge rejects DOJ's Epstein records request
Speed Read Judge Richard Berman was the third and final federal judge to reject DOJ petitions to unseal Epstein-related grand jury material
-
Texas OKs gerrymander sought by Trump
Speed Read The House approved a new congressional map aimed at flipping Democratic-held seats to Republican control
-
Israel starts Gaza assault, approves West Bank plan
Speed Read Israel forces pushed into the outskirts of Gaza City and Netanyahu's government gave approval for a settlement to cut the occupied Palestinian territory in two
-
Court says labor board's structure unconstitutional
Speed Read The ruling has broad implications for labor rights enforcement in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi
-
Feds seek harsh charges in DC arrests, except for rifles
Speed Read The DOJ said 465 arrests had been made in D.C. since Trump federalized law enforcement there two weeks ago