Thomas Tuchel has said that his England men’s football team will follow Gareth Southgate’s penalty shoot-out blueprint at the World Cup. “We are prepared. We have a process, the players have a process,” Tuchel said.
As part of an overhaul of the England team, Southgate decided on his penalty takers “well in advance based on the training, and he strove publicly to take full accountability to take any blame away from his players”, said the BBC.
With the knockout rounds of this summer’s tournament under way, the “spectre” of the penalty shoot-out “hovers over every match”, said CBC. Many in the game are now turning to studies into the psychology, mathematics and history of penalties to try to gain an edge.
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England’s ghosts
“Penalty kick studies” have helped the world’s top teams “win more shoot-outs”, said Science News Explores. The psychological pattern that “stands out” is that “as the stakes go up, the chances of scoring go down”. Players are more likely to score from a penalty during a game than in a shoot-out; penalty kicks tend to be less successful towards the end of tournaments; and during shoot-outs, players are most likely to score if a goal means victory – and least likely if failure means defeat.
The received wisdom is that England are poor at taking penalties. They are one of only four nations that have lost three penalty shoot-outs at World Cup finals – the others being Italy, France and the Netherlands. The Three Lions won their first World Cup shoot-out with a 4-3 victory over Colombia in 2018 with Southgate in charge.
A 2023 study that reviewed more than 1,700 penalty kicks found that players from England “scored as often as did the players from other nations”.
This finding was backed up by researchers at Bournemouth University who performed a penalty kick experiment with 130 players from English university and regional teams. Each player took five penalties after being divided into three groups. The researchers reminded one group about England’s poor shoot-out history. That group scored fewer goals than the group that didn’t hear that message and also fewer than the groups that were reminded of the past – but were also told that it proved nothing about English players.
Loving the maths
Mathematics can also come into play. After she scored the decisive spot-kick against Sweden at Euro 2025, the England defender Lucy Bronze explained her method. “I watched the goalkeeper, and every single penalty she dived quite early,” she told the BBC. “Statistically it’s risky for the keeper to stand still… So yeah, I love maths.”
According to recent analysis by Opta of the 292 penalties taken in shoot-outs at the World Cup since 1982, 14% were aimed low and to the left as the player looks at the goal, and just over 85% of those penalties were converted.
To guarantee scoring in a World Cup shoot-out, the findings suggest aiming anywhere in the top third of the goal. Of the 39 penalties hit high and on target, none has been saved. But this method requires more precision and nerve because it increases the risk of hitting the post or crossbar, or missing the goal completely. The least successful penalties are those that are aimed at medium height at the centre of the goal, the stats suggest.
Delving deeper still, a 2018 study by InStat of more than 100,000 penalty kicks around the world concluded that accuracy should be prioritised over power, and that the penalty taker’s run-up should be more than five steps and at a medium pace. When taking a penalty it’s also advantageous to look at the goalkeeper, not the ball.
A report published in the Journal of Sports Sciences also found the perfect order for a team’s penalty takers in a shoot-out: the five most successful penalty takers should go in reverse order.
Germany’s penalty record at major tournaments had become the “stuff of legend”, said The Guardian. They had won six consecutive shoot-outs in all competitions and their players had scored their last 15 World Cup shoot-out penalties before their shock defeat by Paraguay on Monday. Three Germans missing in one shoot-out proves that anything can happen in this dramatic sporting lottery.
