Is it safe for refugees to return to Syria?

The toppling of Bashar al-Assad's regime was celebrated by millions of Syrian refugees across Europe but now they face the prospect of an uncertain return to their homeland.

Hardly a day after Assad's fall, European countries, including the UK, Ireland, Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden and Italy "paused the asylum process" for Syrians, leaving many of them in limbo, said France24. Austria's Interior Ministry has even begun preparing a "return and deportation plan", said Politico. The political situation in Syria remains extremely volatile, however, and, for many refugees settled in Europe, it is "too soon" to consider going home.

'Impossible dream'

The quick decisions to suspend asylum-claim decisions were no doubt driven by domestic issues in Europe, including "inflation, housing shortages and strained services", that have "fuelled frustration at migrant and refugee populations", said Rob Picheta at CNN. Leaders are looking to "harden their stances on migration" in order to "quell surging support for populist and far-right forces".

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But European countries hoping for a rapid return of Syrians "are likely to be disappointed", said The Economist. The one million Syrians in Germany, for example, have an employment rate "higher than in most other EU countries". Many of them "have put down roots" and some are simply "too young to recall anywhere else" as home.

The elation Syrian refugees felt at the news of Assad's downfall has been punctured quickly, leaving them "unsettled" by the prospect of a forced return to their homeland. Although many want to realise the once "impossible dream" of returning to Syria, said Clothilde Goujard at Politico, they "harbour worries" about their country's future or "feel reluctant to leave the lives they've built over as much as a decade abroad".

'Major obstacles'

Any return of refugees will be "fraught with challenges", but "rushing the return of millions" will put "even more pressure" on the "extremely fragile" situation in which the country finds itself, said Will Todman at the US Center for Strategic & International Studies.

Not only does a "successful transition" to peaceful democracy remain uncertain, there are other "major obstacles" that stand in the way of refugees returning. Many will be reluctant to return because of a "lack of jobs and basic services", while others simply do not have "homes to go back to".

There are likewise significant questions over what will emerge from Syria's power vacuum, and if the new ruling faction will "respect the fundamental rights of Syrians", said Le Monde. It is "still too early to know" what will happen in Damascus, and it is in the "interest of all European countries" to ensure a stable government can form. This is the "only way" Syrian refugees can safely return home.