Is the pro-Assad insurgency a threat to the new Syria?

Syria's interim leader has vowed to hunt down those responsible for violent clashes between government forces and supporters of deposed former leader Bashar al-Assad, which, he said, risk tipping the country back into civil war.

Ahmed al-Sharaa's rebel forces toppled Assad in December. Responding now to what he called a "critical moment", al-Sharaa accused Assad loyalists and their as yet unnamed "foreign backers" of trying to foment unrest in Syria – "to divide it and destroy its unity and stability", said Reuters.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that more than 1,000 people have been killed since last Thursday, the vast majority of whom were civilians.

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What did the commentators say?

"Relative calm followed Assad's ousting, but violence has spiralled recently as forces linked to the new Islamist rulers began a crackdown on a growing insurgency from the Alawite sect," said Reuters

Syria's coastal areas, where fighting has erupted in recent days, are the "heartland" of Assad's Alawite minority and a "stronghold" of the former president's supporters, said the BBC. The Alawite sect is an offshoot of Shia Islam that makes up just 10% of Syria's total population. Its members, however, "held prominent roles in the Assad government but, with the arrival of Sunni Muslim-led rebels, lost the power and privilege they once had".

They now claim to be "under attack and discrimination". The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that dozens of Alawite civilians were "killed execution-style" by security forces on Friday, according to Reuters. The killings "will add to the pressure on Sharaa, whose forces do not control the whole of Syria", said the BBC.

"There does not yet appear to be a single unifying force responsible for orchestrating the attacks on Syria's western coast," said The New York Times – but that could be changing. Last week's clashes were the "first time that pro-Assad loyalist activity demonstrated clear coordination and prior planning", said Charles Lister, from the Middle East Institute.

The recent violence has "reignited tensions across Syria" and represents "the biggest domestic military challenge yet to the former rebel group trying to hold the country together with stretched manpower", said The Wall Street Journal.

Syria remains deeply fragmented, with different factions backed by conflicting international powers in charge of separate regions. "Former Assad regime members will very likely form the most effective insurgent cells," said the Institute for the Study of War think tank, "given their pre-established networks."

What next?

Since the fall of Assad, Sharaa has consistently preached a message of reconciliation. But with security forces thinly stretched, his government "now faces the dilemma of cracking down on pro-Assad forces hard enough to prevent the emergence of a full-blown insurgency without alienating Alawites", said The Wall Street Journal.

The new government's international backers, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have condemned attacks by Assad loyalists, but for Sharaa "the challenge goes beyond the task of trying to keep the country safe", said the BBC. Amid ongoing "Western suspicions over his intentions", Sharaa is trying to lift the "crippling sanctions imposed on Syria" under the Assad regime – "a vital move to revive the economy of a country where nine in every 10 people are in poverty".