Trump vs. China: another tariff U-turn?

America and China have agreed to slash their reciprocal tariffs on imports, in what some see as a trade U-turn from Donald Trump, and others laud as Washington strong-arming Beijing to the negotiating table.

After a weekend of talks in Geneva, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 90-day "pause" that will see US tariffs on Chinese goods fall from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods fall from 125% to 10%. Both sides, he said, had shown "great respect" in the negotiations.

What did the commentators say?

Like most of Trump's moves, today's agreement "can be interpreted in more ways than one" said Michael Simmons in The Spectator. It could be that the "damaging economic effects of his tariffs" have forced him into a U-turn. Or perhaps this was his plan all along: "push everyone to the brink, manufacture a crisis, then return to the table. The art of the deal."

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It's anyone's guess "which of the two it really is" but there's no denying how "grim" the economic forecasts for the US were, with "inflation projected to double to 4%" and many predicting a recession in the second half of the year.

"The US now clearly wants an exit ramp" from tariffs, said John Authers at Bloomberg. "As there is virtual unanimity in financial markets that tariffs are a really bad idea, that is cause for celebration."

Despite Trump's "Liberation Day" bravado, "all it took" for the tables to turn was for "China to slap controls on exports of rare earths", said Barry Eichengreen in El Pais. The US may have been "in a better position than China to win the trade war" but America's reliance on Chinese imports has proven "not an advantage but a liability". Those rare-earth materials "go into batteries, electronics" and components for US smartphones, motor vehicles and military hardware.

That said, China, too, had a reason to come to the table. They talked tough in public but "behind closed doors" officials in Beijing "have grown increasingly alarmed about tariffs' impact on the economy, and the risk of isolation as China's trading partners have started negotiating deals with Washington", said Reuters, citing three officials "familiar with Beijing's thinking".

What next?

Today's announcement attenuates many of the more apocalyptic economic forecasts for the US but the president's tariff strategy has "backfired spectacularly", said Imran Khalid at The Hill. It's tempting to view Trump's tariff gambits as "erratic improvisations"; actually, they are "symptomatic of a deeper malaise: an administration where the performance of toughness consistently eclipses the pursuit of results".

And Washington's "wanton behaviour" in other areas – "cutting aid, coercing long-time allies, ignoring international rules and undermining multinational institutions" – offers China an "unprecedented opportunity" to "shift the balance of power in its favour", said Eduardo Porter in The Washington Post. "Whether Beijing plays its hand well is another matter."