The 'hard truths' of our climate failures

Why it's time to start thinking beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius

Earth.
(Image credit: Illustrated | Getty Images)

The world is perilously close to breaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold enshrined in the 2015 U.N. Paris Climate Agreement. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 66% chance Earth's temperature will rise by more than 1.5 degrees by 2027. The odds of exceeding threshold have "risen steadily since 2015," when they were near zero, the WMO report said. Just last year the group put the chances of doing so within the next five years at 50-50, Reuters reported.

The temperature is unlikely to stay above the 1.5 degrees threshold for very long, at least at first. The temporary jump is partially linked to the upcoming El Niño Southern Oscillation. But fossil fuels are the underlying driver of long-term global warming, and they're still heavily in use. A 2022 assessment from the Global Carbon Budget warned that the world had less than a decade to significantly reduce its level of greenhouse gas emissions, or it will blow through the "carbon budget" allotted to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius in the long run. Meeting that goal is becoming less and less likely, forcing global leaders to grapple with some hard truths.

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Devika Rao, The Week US

 Devika Rao has worked as a staff writer at The Week since 2022, covering science, the environment, climate and business. She previously worked as a policy associate for a nonprofit organization advocating for environmental action from a business perspective.