The first stage of the ceasefire in Gaza, comprising hostage-prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas, expires on Saturday. But talks on the second phase, which were due to start earlier this month, have yet to begin. Now both sides are accusing the other of deliberately breaking the fragile truce.
On Sunday, Israel postponed the release of 620 Palestinian prisoners, due to be freed in exchange for six Israelis the day before. It blamed the indefinite delay on Hamas' hostage release ceremonies, in which armed militants paraded captives, some visibly emaciated, in front of crowds and displayed coffins of deceased Israelis under a caricature of the Israeli prime minister. This is "cynical exploitation of our hostages for propaganda purposes", Benjamin Netanyahu's office said in a statement. Israel is ready to "resume intense fighting at any moment".
Hamas called the delay a "blatant violation", saying it would not engage in further talks until the prisoners were released. "Netanyahu is clearly sending strong messages that he is intentionally sabotaging the deal," a Hamas official told Al Jazeera. He is "preparing the atmosphere for returning back to the war".
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This is "the latest big bump in the road", said the BBC. It comes after Hamas handed over deceased Israeli hostage Shiri Bibas on Thursday – but the body turned out to be someone else's. That sparked widespread "anger and shock in Israel"; Netanyahu denounced what he called the "cruel and malicious violation" of the agreement. Her body was returned on Friday, but the past few days show "how fragile the ceasefire process remains".
The prisoner-hostage exchanges "suited both Israel and Hamas", said The New York Times. Every hostage "brought relief" to Israel, while Hamas' "prestige was bolstered among Palestinians" with every released prisoner. These swaps are set to end on Thursday, with the release of four more Israelis (most likely deceased) for several hundred Palestinians. "Unless new exchanges are arranged, both Hamas and Israel will have fewer reasons to keep the truce going."
Certainly, Netanyahu is "under heavy pressure from hard-line coalition partners" to resume fighting, said ABC News. But he also faces "heavy public pressure" to get the remaining hostages back.
But both sides still "appear intent on maintaining the ceasefire", said AFP. Hamas "really wants to implement Phase One", said Palestinian affairs expert Michael Milshtein of Tel Aviv University, because on Saturday Israeli forces are "meant to start leaving the Philadelphi Corridor": a strategic buffer zone along Gaza's border with Egypt.
Meanwhile, Israel's tougher stance could be a "calculated negotiating tactic" ahead of talks for Phase Two.
"I don't think the ceasefire will collapse," said Sanam Vakil, of the Chatham House think tank. While there are still hostages in Gaza, it's "not in Netanyahu's interest". What we are seeing is "political hardball".
What next?
Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, will return to the region tomorrow, aiming for an extension of Phase One.
"Urgent high-stakes negotiations" for Phase Two are set to begin next week, said The Telegraph, which if successful would "effectively mean the end of the war". But experts warn that talks are "unlikely to go smoothly". Hamas has offered to release all 61 remaining hostages in "one fell swoop" – half of whom are believed to be dead – in return for a permanent ceasefire and a withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
But Israel is still demanding the complete disarmament of Hamas, which the group has rejected. Israel has "already begun amassing troops on Gaza's border in case fighting resumes".
This plan has yet to be approved by the cabinet, but officials told The New York Times they believed only Trump could dissuade Netanyahu from renewed war.
"I think the key to this is the Americans, they will determine what takes place next," Alan Mendoza, from the UK-based Henry Jackson Society, told AFP. If the president wants to see Phase Two, "then it will happen".
