The 'one big reason to think' COVID-19 cases could start to decline soon

Could the United States' latest COVID-19 surge have reached its peak?
That question was posed Wednesday by The New York Times' David Leonhardt and Ashley Wu, who in the Times morning newsletter pointed to a "regular — if mysterious — cycle" that COVID-19 cases have frequently followed since the start of the pandemic: surging for about two months and then beginning to decline. According to the Times, the number of daily new cases rose less in the last week than any week since June. And the two-month cycle that has occurred in numerous countries in the past is "one big reason to think that" this trend may continue "and that caseloads may even soon decline," the Times writes.
As far as why COVID-19 surges seem to run out of gas after two months, experts aren't sure. "We still are really in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, why they do what they do," University of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm said. The Times also points out that it's not a sure thing that this two-month cycle will repeat in the U.S. with the Delta variant, as there have been exceptions to the trend, including in Brazil.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, previously predicted that "you're going to see the Delta wave course through probably between late September through October," but that "hopefully we'll be on the other side of it or coming on the other side of it sometime in November." Read more at The New York Times.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Brendan worked as a culture writer at The Week from 2018 to 2023, covering the entertainment industry, including film reviews, television recaps, awards season, the box office, major movie franchises and Hollywood gossip. He has written about film and television for outlets including Bloody Disgusting, Showbiz Cheat Sheet, Heavy and The Celebrity Cafe.
-
What's next for Elon Musk?
Today's Big Question The world's richest man has become 'disillusioned' with politics – but returning to his tech empire presents its own challenges
-
Quiz of The Week: 24 – 30 May
Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
-
The Week Unwrapped: Will Europe beat China and India to the North Pole?
Podcast Plus, is the man who designed the iPhone going to kill his own creation? And what's going on at the equalities watchdog?
-
RFK Jr. scraps Covid shots for pregnant women, kids
Speed Read The Health Secretary announced a policy change without informing CDC officials
-
New FDA chiefs limit Covid-19 shots to elderly, sick
speed read The FDA set stricter approval standards for booster shots
-
US overdose deaths plunged 27% last year
speed read Drug overdose still 'remains the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-44,' said the CDC
-
Trump seeks to cut drug prices via executive order
speed read The president's order tells pharmaceutical companies to lower prescription drug prices, but it will likely be thrown out by the courts
-
RFK Jr. visits Texas as 2nd child dies from measles
Speed Read An outbreak of the vaccine-preventable disease continues to grow following a decade of no recorded US measles deaths
-
Shingles vaccine cuts dementia risk, study finds
Speed Read Getting vaccinated appears to significantly reduce the chances of developing Alzheimer's and other forms of dementia
-
Measles outbreak spreads, as does RFK Jr.'s influence
Speed Read The outbreak centered in Texas has grown to at least three states and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is promoting unproven treatments
-
RFK Jr. offers alternative remedies as measles spreads
Speed Read Health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. makes unsupported claims about containing the spread as vaccine skepticism grows