Nigel Farage’s willingness to “support” a Tory minority government in the event of a hung parliament – revealed last night by the Telegraph - is an offer the Prime Minister can easily refuse.
First, the Ukip leader is demanding in return an EU in/out referendum this year rather than waiting until 2017. This would be flat-out impossible to organise.
As Nick Watt of The Guardian explained on the Sunday Politics, a referendum demands legislation, which demands time – and the Lords will be delighted to be as awkward as possible. There’s also the little matter of Cameron trying to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s membership: that will be difficult enough without putting a six-month time limit on it.
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Second, the numbers don’t add up – and unless the Tories produce the most spectacular Budget this week and really shift the opinion polls in their favour, then the numbers never will add up.
Farage is suggesting that Ukip and the eight-strong Democratic Unionist Party might both team up in a loose pact – rather than a formal coalition - with the Tories.
Let’s put aside the fact that only last week DUP leader Nigel Dodds said his party would not get into bed with any coalition partner who didn’t promise to scrap the bedroom tax - thus making a deal with the Tories pretty unlikely – and look at the numbers.
Because of our first-past-the-post system, Ukip will do well to have six MPs on 8 May, even if they achieve something like 14 per cent of the national vote: some polling predicts fewer seats than that.
But for the sake of argument, let’s be generous and assume the DUP keep all their eight seats and that the Ukip-DUP axis can muster 15.
How much use would 15 MPs be to Cameron in his quest for another term in Number 10? The formal or tacit support of 326 MPs is needed for a Commons majority. In the 2010 election, the Tories won 307 seats – despite taking a 37 per cent share of the national vote against Labour’s 30 per cent.
But on the basis of current polling, the Tories are nowhere near repeating that feat. The New Statesman predicts the Conservatives will be down to 281 seats, on the basis of Labour enjoying an average one-point lead over the Tories.
Other pollsters who calculate their averages differently come up with less optimistic figures for the Tories. UK Polling Report has the Conservatives on just 266 seats while Electoral Calculus thinks they will be lucky to have 256.
Add the 15 seats that Ukip and the DUP might provide to any of these predicted Tory numbers and Cameron is nowhere close to that all-important 326 threshold.
The fact is that Farage’s role in Cameron’s future is much more likely to be dream-wrecker than king-maker. It’s Tory voters switching to Ukip who are Cameron’s biggest headache.
And Mike Smithson of Political Betting reckons Farage’s offer of a possible voting pact with the Tories makes that headache worse. It could put off potential Labour-to-Ukip switchers in Labour-held seats. “Labour will be able to frame Ukip as being a vote for the Tories,” says Smithson.
The Tories’ need for a game-changer is emphasised by the latest opinion polls. Two of them have Labour in the lead and the third has a tie.
Opinium in The Observer shows: Con 33 (down 1), Lab 35 (up 1), Lib Dems 7 (down 1), Ukip 14 (u/c), GRN 7 (u/c).
ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent has: Con 33 (up 1), Lab 35 (up 1), Lib Dems 7 (u/c), Ukip 16 (u/c), Greens 4 (u/c).
The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times shows the Conservatives and Labour equal on 34 per cent.
So it’s all eyes on Chancellor George Osborne and his Budget this Wednesday. Tories should not get their hopes too high: his elaborately choreographed Autumn Statement before Christmas caused barely a flicker in the polls.
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