Is this the end of cigarettes?

Cigarettes were once ubiquitous in American life. That's changed over the last 50 years as tobacco advertising disappeared from the airwaves and a massive health campaign discouraged Americans from smoking. Now cigarettes themselves might be all but regulated out of existence.

Nicotine levels in cigarettes would be "drastically lowered" under a new proposal from the Food and Drug Administration, said NBC News. The goal is to render cigarettes practically impotent, less able to lure new and occasional users into addiction. Nicotine is "what hooks you" on tobacco products, said Dr. Richard Besser of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Smoking still kills nearly a half-million Americans every year. The new rule would slash nicotine levels in cigarettes by 95%. "The cycle of exposure to these toxic chemicals can be broken," said the FDA's Brian King.

What did the commentators say?

The FDA "just kinda, sorta banned cigarettes," said Nicholas Florko at The Atlantic. Without the high nicotine levels that they currently contain, cigarettes are "just smoldering leaves wrapped in some fancy paper." While not technically a cigarette ban, the term is still apt: The FDA estimates that the rule would prompt 13 million people to quit smoking within a year after it takes effect. That could effectively be the "end of cigarettes," Florko said. And with it, a drop in cancer deaths. The proposed nicotine rule is "wonderful news for just about everyone except tobacco executives."

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The "de facto cigarette ban" would "expand the disastrous war on drugs," said Jacob Sullum at Reason. But the war on drugs has given no reason to think it would be successful to broaden it to "include products that are regularly consumed by nearly 30 million American adults." Not only would the nicotine limits effectively ban cigarettes currently on the market, they would also create a black market for smokers looking for their next fix. History demonstrates that "prohibition doesn't end the demand for these products," said Neill Franklin, former director of the Law Enforcement Action Partnership.

What next?

The FDA proposal came about during the last days of the Biden administration. But President Donald Trump has a history of taking on "Big Tobacco," said Dr. Brian Williams at The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. In 2019, the first Trump administration proposed raising the tobacco purchase age from 18 to 21. Reducing nicotine levels "would build on that important public health work." And it would fit the "Make America Healthy Again" agenda of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's nominee to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. The rule "will improve the health of smokers and those around them," said Williams.

The rule might be a blow to cigarettes, but it's not the end of nicotine use in America. The FDA in mid-January endorsed the health benefits of nicotine pouches like Zyn, said The Associated Press. The move doesn't mean that the smokeless products — which contain no tobacco, just nicotine and flavoring — are safe. They're just "less harmful than older alternatives."