Next major pandemic will hit ‘by 2080 at the latest’

Researchers predict that younger generation will face another disease outbreak on similar scale to Covid-19

Shot of London during the height of the Covid pandemic
(Image credit: Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images)

A global pandemic comparable to the ongoing Covid-19 crisis is likely to occur by 2080 - and possibly far sooner, a newly published analysis suggests.

And the rate at which such outbreaks appear “is speeding up, meaning that the probability of living through one is growing”.

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“When a 100-year flood occurs today, one may erroneously presume that one can afford to wait another 100 years before experiencing another such event,” said study co-author professor Gabriel Katul, a professor of hydrology and micrometeorology at Duke University in North Carolina.

“This impression is false. One can get another 100-year flood the next year.”

Indeed, "in the last 50 years, we’ve seen increasing levels of new pathogens spreading through humans”, said ScienceAlert. "Sars-CoV-2 is the most obvious example, but even in the last few decades we’ve had swine flu, bird flu, Ebola, and many, many more.”

The new study suggests that the risk of outbreaks has been increased by “population growth, changes in food systems, environmental degradation and more frequent contact between humans and disease-harbouring animals”, The Telegraph added.

The team of US and Italian researchers write that “together with recent estimates of increasing rates of disease emergence from animal reservoirs associated with environmental change, this finding suggests a high probability of observing pandemics similar to Covid-19 (probability of experiencing it in one's lifetime currently about 38%), which may double in coming decades”.

Their research findings - published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal - also indicate that a pandemic capable of eliminating all human life is likely to occur within the next 12,000 years.

But on the bright side, “if we play our cards right, our response and resources for Covid-19 can prepare us” for the next outbreak, according to ScienceAlert.

“The most important takeaway is that large pandemics like Covid-19 and the Spanish flu are relatively likely,” said study co-author Dr William Pan, associate professor of global environmental health at Duke.

“This points to the importance of early response to disease outbreaks and building capacity for pandemic surveillance at the local and global scales, as well as for setting a research agenda for understanding why large outbreaks are becoming more common.

“Understanding that pandemics aren’t so rare should raise the priority of efforts to prevent and control them in the future.”

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Kate Samuelson is The Week's former newsletter editor. She was also a regular guest on award-winning podcast The Week Unwrapped. Kate's career as a journalist began on the MailOnline graduate training scheme, which involved stints as a reporter at the South West News Service's office in Cambridge and the Liverpool Echo. She moved from MailOnline to Time magazine's satellite office in London, where she covered current affairs and culture for both the print mag and website. Before joining The Week, Kate worked at ActionAid UK, where she led the planning and delivery of all content gathering trips, from Bangladesh to Brazil. She is passionate about women's rights and using her skills as a journalist to highlight underrepresented communities. Alongside her staff roles, Kate has written for various magazines and newspapers including Stylist, Metro.co.uk, The Guardian and the i news site. She is also the founder and editor of Cheapskate London, an award-winning weekly newsletter that curates the best free events with the aim of making the capital more accessible.