What does the Ukraine invasion mean for Vladimir Putin’s legacy?
War in Europe would mark a ‘massive escalation’ – but Russian president may not be concerned about short-term fallout

After two decades at the helm of Russian politics, Vladimir Putin will be considering his legacy as a leader.
During his long reign in the Kremlin, the Russian president “has evolved from an afterthought of Washington leaders to the world’s most watched and pleaded-with man”, said The Washington Post. “Having complained for years about being ignored”, he has “reconstituted Russian military might to force the globe to reckon with his interests” – transforming Moscow into a power broker with international influence.
Now, “ageing, isolated” but more powerful than ever, Putin “is on the brink of waging a possibly catastrophic war” that could come to define his rule.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
‘Legacy business’
This “man with the very long table who seats world leaders and ministers at an almost comical distance” cuts a “lone figure”, The Washington Post continued.
As he approaches his 70th birthday, in October, Putin has had ample time to “consider his legacy as the longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph Stalin”. And the “escape of Kyiv, for centuries the centre of East Slavic statehood, into the hands of the West” remains one of his “most striking and unendurable failures”, according to the paper.
His annexation of Crimea in 2014 “stamped his legacy” as a “gatherer of Russian lands”, wrote Russia experts Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. The occupation, which triggered Western sanctions and international condemnation, made Putin “the first ruler since Stalin to expand the country’s territory” and challenged “claims by foreign and some Russian observers that Russia is a declining power”.
If Putin is now willing to “shrug off” threats of Western sanctions once again in order to bring Kyiv back into Moscow’s immediate orbit, “it may be because he has literally heard it all before”, said Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist at the Financial Times (FT).
Russia weathered the previous raft of sanctions “and by 2018 was staging a successful World Cup, which ended with Putin hosting the presidents of two EU countries, France and Croatia, in the VIP box”.
A full-scale invasion of Ukraine would mark a “massive escalation” in his willingness to “accept confrontation with the West”, Rachman continued.
But Putin may not be thinking about the short-term cost. “He may now be in the legacy business.”
‘Frightening new reality’
Putin has long expressed “a deep desire to ‘reunify’ the Russkiy Mir”, said the FT’s Rachman. The term describes the historic Russian world, “which, as he sees it, is now divided”.
So an invasion of Ukraine “could be seen as the completion of a historic task”. Putin may have concluded “that massive bloodshed is justified” to drag Kyiv from the West’s circle of influence back into Russkiy Mir, Rachman warned.
The Russian president is aware that major military intervention from Nato allies is unlikely, according to Kurt Volker, the former US ambassador to Nato.
“Nato has been extraordinarily clear that we will defend the territory of Nato allies,” Volker told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “But that pointedly excludes Ukraine and Georgia and Moldova. He is quite confident that he can get away with this and will go down in Russian history as someone who accumulated the lands and rebuilt a greater Russia.”
His apparent willingness to go to war is “not just a frightening new reality for Ukraine and, indeed, Nato”, said The Economist. “It also terrifies many in Russia’s elite.”
Business owners, diplomats, economists and government officials in Moscow reportedly told the paper that “they could barely fathom the ruinous consequences a war would bring to Russia – consequences which would go far beyond specific sanctions”.
Having once believed that “such dire consequences made a war of choice unthinkable for a calculating man like Putin”, Russian civil society is now being forced to “concede that it has edged into the realm of the thinkable”.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
How will Wall Street react to the Trump-Powell showdown?
Today's Big Question 'Market turmoil' seems likely
By Joel Mathis, The Week US
-
Google ruled a monopoly over ad tech dominance
Speed Read Attorney General Pam Bondi hailed the ruling as a 'landmark victory in the ongoing fight to stop Google from monopolizing the digital public square'
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
El Salvador's CECOT prison becomes Washington's go-to destination
IN THE SPOTLIGHT Republicans and Democrats alike are clamoring for access to the Trump administration's extrajudicial deportation camp — for very different reasons
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Russian strike kills dozens in Ukraine
Speed Read The Sumy ballistic missile strike was Russia's deadliest attack on civilians this year
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Inside the Israel-Turkey geopolitical dance across Syria
THE EXPLAINER As Syria struggles in the wake of the Assad regime's collapse, its neighbors are carefully coordinating to avoid potential military confrontations
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
How will the Myanmar earthquake affect the nation's military junta?
Today's Big Question More than 2,700 people have reportedly died from the earthquake
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
What does the Le Pen verdict mean for the future of French politics?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION Convicted of embezzlement and slapped with a five year ban on running for public office, where does arch-conservative Marine Le Pen go from here — and will the movement she leads follow?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weapons
The Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
By Abby Wilson
-
The fight for control of Ukraine's nuclear reactors
The Explainer How serious is Donald Trump about US ownership of Kyiv's nuclear power plants?
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray
In the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
By Justin Klawans, The Week US
-
Romania's election chaos risks international fallout
IN THE SPOTLIGHT By barring far-right candidate Calin Georgescu from the country's upcoming electoral re-do, Romania places itself in the center of a broader struggle over European ultra-nationalism
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US