Sudan ‘on the brink’ of chaos as army and civilian divisions deepen

Demonstrators are marching on the streets of Sudan’s capital to demand the dissolution of the northeast African nation’s fledgling civilian government and a return to military rule.

The protests in Khartoum come as “Sudanese politics reels from divisions among the factions steering the rocky transition from two decades of dictatorship under president Omar al-Bashir”, who was ousted by the Sudanese Armed Forces in April 2019, said The Guardian.

“With so many groups wanting a voice in the country’s future, the search for consensus is again proving dangerously elusive,” said the BBC’s Africa analyst Magdi Abdelhadi. And the latest demonstrations, which began on Saturday, risk plunging a country already “on the brink” into further “polarisation”.

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Delicate democracy

The protests have been spearheaded “by a splinter faction of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), a civilian alliance which spearheaded the anti-Bashir protests and became a key plank of the transition”, said The Guardian.

Demonstrators have “set up tents outside the presidential palace” and are demanding the dismissal of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, the paper continued. The former UN economist’s reforms have “hit the pockets of many Sudanese”, triggering widespread public anger.

But government supporters have claimed that the “the protest was orchestrated by sympathisers of the Bashir regime, which was dominated by Islamists and the military”.

Hamdok has responded to the protests by forming a “crisis cell” aimed at “lowering tensions” during the “difficult transition” into a post-Bashir future, Africa News reported.

The “cell is composed of two senior army officers and four representatives of the demonstrators”, said the site. “Two of the four representatives of the protesters are pro-civilian”, while the other two are “from a seditious faction of this bloc that now wants to hand over power to the military”.

Yet even as the government was planning the “crisis cell”, police were “tear-gassing pro-military protesters gathered outside its headquarters”.

“If there is such a thing as ‘too much democracy’”, said the BBC’s Abdelhadi, “it might help us understand the political drama that has unfolded” since the toppling of Bashir.

Following his dethroning, a “loose coalition of groups” united under the banner of the FFC in order to represent the protesters under the slogan “Yasgut Bass”.

The phrase is “the Sudanese version” of the Arab Spring slogan “the people want the downfall of the regime”, Abdelhadi added. But “crucially, the word ‘bass’, Arabic for ‘only’, underlined the limits of their consensus – they only wanted to bring down the regime led by Bashir”, with “little consensus on how to move forward after that”.

Transition in crisis

Sudan is at a “crossroads as the two ruling partners lock horns for political gains” following the coup d’état that removed Bashir - an alleged war criminal - from power, said The Independent’s consultant editor Ahmed Aboudouh.

Many civilians remain “wary of a power grab by their military partner in government”, he added, with tensions heightened by efforts by both sides to “mobilise the masses to take over the street”.

In an article for The New Arab, journalist and researcher Jonathan Fenton-Harvey argued that “recent events show the risks of Sudan reverting to authoritarianism”, as well as “the consequences of allowing impunity for military figures responsible for past war crimes”.

The splintering of the FCC “highlights sharp divisions within the government and civil society”, while “the military is clearly keen to exploit grievances from the country’s worsening economic situation”.

Despite the promises of democracy, “there is growing opposition towards Sudan’s interim government as it has struggled to meet many people’s expectations”, he added.

And “elements of the military are looking for an opportunity to exploit the situation and gain power, as they have sought to do so since the transitional agreement was brokered”.

Protestors camped outside the presidential palace this week chanted “one army, one people” and “the army will bring us bread”, according to The Guardian. Demonstrator Enaam Mohamed, a housewife, told the paper: “We are marching in a peaceful protest and we want a military government.”

“Infighting between the ruling elite has exacerbated an already dire economic situation in Sudan,” said The Independent’s Aboudouh. Government critics “insist it adopts the wrong policies, and its incompetence caused shortages of fuel, bread, and essential medicines”, he continued.

These economic issues have been compounded by leaders of the Beja council, “a mishmash of tribes and local factions”, seizing control of “the country’s biggest port on the Red Sea and blocking the road leading to it”. The group is demanding “the end of the deprecation of the severely under-developed region” and is backing “the military’s calls for the cabinet reshuffle”.

The blockade has “​​disrupted about $126m worth of trade”, Bloomberg reported.

As the stand-off continues, the US is pressuring Sudan to complete its transition, warning “that failure to make progress” in the shift “to civilian rule could put at risk political and economic support from Washington”, Reuters said.

But the executive director of the World Peace Foundation, Alex de Waal, recently argued that it would be naive to think Sudan would achieve national unity so quickly following 60 years of political and ethnic division.

According to the BBC, “​​t​he best one could hope for now, he suggested, was that the Sudanese agreed to disagree in words not action –and continued talks to avoid violence”.