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Can Nigel reverse the Farage slump?
Reform UK leader stands at a crossroads, and his choices will determine the party’s future – and his own
“Not so long ago he was ‘Britain’s next prime minister’,” said Sean O’Grady in The Independent. Today, Nigel Farage seems a rather deflated figure. For the first time in 15 months, some polls are putting his Reform UK party in second place to Labour. Last week, Reform came a distant second in the Greater Manchester mayoral election.
Farage’s own popularity has slumped to 32% – the lowest net rating of any major party leader. And he is currently trapped in an “end-of-the-pier show in Clacton” of his own making, as he prepares for next week’s by-election against Count Binface, Baron Von Thunderclap and other novelty candidates.
Operation Distraction
Meanwhile, questions continue to be asked about Reform’s finances and Farage’s acceptance last year of a £5 million gift from Christopher Harborne, which intensified last week when it emerged that he had, by then, discussed returning as Reform’s leader.
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Desperate to change the subject, Farage announced “Operation Fortress” this week – a plan to use the Navy to force migrant boats back to France. It is a ludicrous idea, said The Independent. Paris has already warned that such pushbacks would violate French sovereignty and breach international law. That Farage came up with it shows how much trouble he and his party are in.
Let’s not get carried away, said Josh Glancy in The Sunday Times. “Reform is in a rut”, but Farage is still attracting “adoring crowds” in Clacton, and many polls are still putting Reform on 24%, neck-and-neck with Labour. Concern about migration remains a highly potent issue with voters. And when Andy Burnham’s honeymoon ends, as it surely will, Farage is likely to bounce back.
Under siege
Farage tends to perform best when his back is against the wall, said Tim Ross on Politico. His core support has only “solidified as a result of his recent difficulties”: his approval ratings have risen 13 points among Reform voters since May. They believe “the Establishment” is “intent on punishing the people’s champion” and is out to get Farage. They are standing by their man.
But Farage can’t rely on the diehards to get him to No. 10, said David Frost in The Daily Telegraph. There are not enough of them. He has achieved extraordinary things as leader, but Reform is now sitting on a plateau beneath the summit. There are “two possible routes up off it”. He could double down on immigration and the culture wars, which would shore up the base, but there is a ceiling on the number of voters who favour that tear-it-all-down approach. Or he could turn Reform into a broad-spectrum party, calling for deregulation, public-sector reform and tax cuts, to attract residual Tory votes.
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But is Farage the man to lead that party, asked Dan Hodges in The Mail on Sunday. He is so divisive, some voters will do anything to keep Reform candidates out, and his brand is becoming more toxic. Reform needs to decide if it is a serious party or a “monument to one man’s folly”.
