RFK Jr.'s Trump endorsement: GOP windfall or minor jolt?
Some believe RFK Jr. abandoning his presidential bid could be game-changing — others aren't so sure


Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his bid for the White House on Aug. 23 and endorsed Republican candidate Donald Trump. The son of political icon Robert F. Kennedy will not take the presidential oath of office this coming January, but will his endorsement of Trump have a major impact on the trajectory of the election?
Previous polls showed that Kennedy's existence in the race would likely siphon more votes away from Trump than President Joe Biden. But with Biden now replaced at the top of the Democratic ticket by Vice President Kamala Harris — and with Harris gaining momentum in the polls against Trump — the Kennedy element in the race for the White House could be a whole new one. Or, as some have posited, it may not make much of a difference.
RFK Jr.'s decision 'could still alter' the presidential race
Kennedy's decision to suspend his campaign "presents another twist to a race already unlike any other," and it "could still alter a tight presidential race," said Steve Contorno, Alayna Treene and Aaron Pellish at CNN. Following Kennedy's endorsement of Trump, there is "hope within the former president's operation that Kennedy's exit could prove decisive if certain battlegrounds are decided by thousands of ballots, just as they were in 2020."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Despite Kennedy's numerous controversies, Trump's advisers "now see an opening to court some of Kennedy's voters, particularly those Americans who sit at the overlap between supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' past presidential campaigns and the GOP's anti-establishment right wing," said Contorno, Treene and Pellish. There is also a presumption that "conservative-leaning mothers — a demographic the Republican nominee has struggled to win over — could also be swayed" to Trump due to Kennedy's endorsement.
Kennedy "had previously garnered support from both Republicans and Democrats at about an equal amount," Diana Glebova, Josh Christenson and Steven Nelson said at the New York Post. His true impact on the race will "ultimately be determined by how many of his supporters decide to vote for Trump — and how forceful his endorsement will be — instead of sitting out the election or voting for Harris." The fact that Kennedy left the race at this late stage "could also lead to his name remaining on state ballots, so voters could still choose him."
RFK Jr.'s endorsement won't have 'much effect at all'
Kennedy endorsing Trump won't have "much effect at all" on the presidential race, said former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), per The Hill. If a voter is "with Robert Kennedy, you're wanting change, and if you're wanting change, I don't know if you're gonna go with Donald Trump." This sentiment was echoed by Jen O'Malley Dillon, the manager of the Harris-Walz campaign. When voters "look at RFK and what's happened over the last several months, the more the American people hear from him, the more we see that they don't like him that much," Dillon said to Politico during the Democratic National Convention.
Beyond this, Kennedy's "power to drag the Democratic nominee's polling down seems to have diminished substantially" due to the entrance of Harris into the race, said Nicole Narea at Vox. When Biden was the Democratic nominee, Kennedy "provided an alternative for a while." But "when Harris stepped up, that undermined his appeal — at least among Democrats." There were "wavering Democratic voters who just thought Biden was too old, or they didn't like him, and Harris is just a more appealing candidate for those kinds of people," Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said to Vox.
Kennedy "probably wouldn't hurt the incumbents, even if he had stayed in the race, because he was heading down into the low single digits, way below the threshold needed to turn that key," American University professor Allan Lichtman said to NewsNation. The "idea that he could somehow turn" votes over to Trump is "absolute nonsense." But while pundits have mixed opinions, it is "difficult to measure the exact effect of his exit at this stage," Brendan Rascius said at the Miami Herald.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Justin Klawans has worked as a staff writer at The Week since 2022. He began his career covering local news before joining Newsweek as a breaking news reporter, where he wrote about politics, national and global affairs, business, crime, sports, film, television and other news. Justin has also freelanced for outlets including Collider and United Press International.
-
Sodium batteries could make electric flight viable
Under the Radar Low-cost fuel cell has higher energy density and produces chemical by-product that could absorb CO2 from the atmosphere
-
Flying into danger
Feature America's air traffic control system is in crisis. Can it be fixed?
-
Pocket change: The demise of the penny
Feature The penny is being phased out as the Treasury plans to halt production by 2026
-
A running list of all the celebrities Trump has pardoned
IN DEPTH Reality stars, rappers and disgraced politicians have received some of the high-profile pardons doled out by the president
-
'The pattern is similar across America'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
White House tackles fake citations in MAHA report
speed read A federal government public health report spearheaded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was rife with false citations
-
Judge blocks push to bar Harvard foreign students
speed read Judge Allison Burroughs sided with Harvard against the Trump administration's attempt to block the admittance of international students
-
Trump's trade war whipsawed by court rulings
Speed Read A series of court rulings over Trump's tariffs renders the future of US trade policy uncertain
-
What's next for Elon Musk?
Today's Big Question The world's richest man has become 'disillusioned' with politics – but returning to his tech empire presents its own challenges
-
Trump's super-charged pardon push raises eyebrows and concerns
IN THE SPOTLIGHT Never shy about using his pardon ability for political leverage, Trump's spate of amnesty announcements suggests the White House is taking things to a new level
-
Elon Musk departs Trump administration
speed read The former DOGE head says he is ending his government work to spend more time on his companies