RFK Jr.'s Trump endorsement: GOP windfall or minor jolt?

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his bid for the White House on Aug. 23 and endorsed Republican candidate Donald Trump. The son of political icon Robert F. Kennedy will not take the presidential oath of office this coming January, but will his endorsement of Trump have a major impact on the trajectory of the election?

Previous polls showed that Kennedy's existence in the race would likely siphon more votes away from Trump than President Joe Biden. But with Biden now replaced at the top of the Democratic ticket by Vice President Kamala Harris — and with Harris gaining momentum in the polls against Trump — the Kennedy element in the race for the White House could be a whole new one. Or, as some have posited, it may not make much of a difference.

RFK Jr.'s decision 'could still alter' the presidential race

Kennedy's decision to suspend his campaign "presents another twist to a race already unlike any other," and it "could still alter a tight presidential race," said Steve Contorno, Alayna Treene and Aaron Pellish at CNN. Following Kennedy's endorsement of Trump, there is "hope within the former president's operation that Kennedy's exit could prove decisive if certain battlegrounds are decided by thousands of ballots, just as they were in 2020."

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Despite Kennedy's numerous controversies, Trump's advisers "now see an opening to court some of Kennedy's voters, particularly those Americans who sit at the overlap between supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' past presidential campaigns and the GOP's anti-establishment right wing," said Contorno, Treene and Pellish. There is also a presumption that "conservative-leaning mothers — a demographic the Republican nominee has struggled to win over — could also be swayed" to Trump due to Kennedy's endorsement.

Kennedy "had previously garnered support from both Republicans and Democrats at about an equal amount," Diana Glebova, Josh Christenson and Steven Nelson said at the New York Post. His true impact on the race will "ultimately be determined by how many of his supporters decide to vote for Trump — and how forceful his endorsement will be — instead of sitting out the election or voting for Harris." The fact that Kennedy left the race at this late stage "could also lead to his name remaining on state ballots, so voters could still choose him."

RFK Jr.'s endorsement won't have 'much effect at all'

Kennedy endorsing Trump won't have "much effect at all" on the presidential race, said former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), per The Hill. If a voter is "with Robert Kennedy, you're wanting change, and if you're wanting change, I don't know if you're gonna go with Donald Trump." This sentiment was echoed by Jen O'Malley Dillon, the manager of the Harris-Walz campaign. When voters "look at RFK and what's happened over the last several months, the more the American people hear from him, the more we see that they don't like him that much," Dillon said to Politico during the Democratic National Convention.

Beyond this, Kennedy's "power to drag the Democratic nominee's polling down seems to have diminished substantially" due to the entrance of Harris into the race, said Nicole Narea at Vox. When Biden was the Democratic nominee, Kennedy "provided an alternative for a while." But "when Harris stepped up, that undermined his appeal — at least among Democrats." There were "wavering Democratic voters who just thought Biden was too old, or they didn't like him, and Harris is just a more appealing candidate for those kinds of people," Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said to Vox.

Kennedy "probably wouldn't hurt the incumbents, even if he had stayed in the race, because he was heading down into the low single digits, way below the threshold needed to turn that key," American University professor Allan Lichtman said to NewsNation. The "idea that he could somehow turn" votes over to Trump is "absolute nonsense." But while pundits have mixed opinions, it is "difficult to measure the exact effect of his exit at this stage," Brendan Rascius said at the Miami Herald.