One obstacle to President Donald Trump’s attempt to end the war with Iran: Any path forward is bound to generate a lot of dissatisfaction among his GOP supporters and advisers, no matter what decision he makes.
Trump “seems conflicted,” Daniel R. DePetris said at the Los Angeles Times. Hawks like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) are continuing to “press for more aggressive U.S. military action.” But Trump’s in-house political strategists want a quick end to the unpopular war to “minimize political repercussions against the Republican Party” in November’s midterm elections. Trump clearly wants the deal that he keeps promising to the U.S. public, but accomplishing that may put him at odds with Republicans who “would consider anything short of Iran’s total surrender a failure.”
‘A bad option and a worse one’
The president is “fed up with the current situation” but he is also “afraid of escalation,” The Atlantic Council’s Danny Citrinowicz said in an interview with The New Yorker. Escalation probably will not work “because the Iranians are not going to capitulate.” The other option to end the war, then, is a deal that provides both money and sanctions relief to the Islamic regime in exchange for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s choices are “between a bad option and a worse one.”
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“Will Trump bail out Iran’s regime?” The Wall Street Journal said in an editorial. Inflation pressures at home are likely behind the president’s desire to “reopen the Strait even on Iran’s terms.” But a “bad deal would leave him worse off politically” even if domestic prices recede. Iran’s regime was beset by domestic crises that the war has exacerbated. A “half victory” by Iran now “would hurt America’s standing — and Mr. Trump’s.”
The issue is not Trump “terminating the conflict too soon,” Jacob Heilbrunn said at The Spectator. It is “that he began it in the first place.” The war is undermining both his presidency and U.S. military power and the idea that escalation would result in Iran’s surrender “defies credulity.” The ugly truth illustrated by the Hormuz closure is that Trump “does not hold the cards.”
‘Leaving core issues unsolved’
Trump is looking to get a ceasefire deal now and “deal with the toughest problems later,” said The New York Times. This was the approach he took in Gaza, where he brokered a truce last year. That effort ended the fighting, but left issues of Hamas’ future and the rebuilding of Gaza to be figured out at a later date. So far that has not happened. Such an approach can be a way for Trump to “claim victory while leaving the core issues unsolved.”
“Doubling down” on the war remains a possibility, Ravi Agrawal said at Foreign Policy. But that would come with “uncertain benefits” and “much more potential pain.” We may soon find out one way or another, as the U.S. on Monday conducted strikes on Iranian positions, a sign the temporary truce is faltering.
