What will Trump mean for the Middle East?

Israel is said to be "rushing to advance" a ceasefire deal in Lebanon in order to deliver an "early foreign policy win" for President-elect Donald Trump. "There is an understanding that Israel would gift something to Trump", an Israeli official told The Washington Post, after an Israeli minister met Donald Trump and Jared Kushner at Mar-a-Lago.

During his first presidency, Trump recognised "Jerusalem as the capital of Israel" and "Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights", wrote Middle East expert Amin Saikal on The Conversation. Trump "castigated Iran" and oversaw the signing of the Abraham Accords, which led to several Arab states normalising relations with Israel. But the Gaza and Lebanon wars, and skirmishing between Israel and Iran, have "changed the regional texture". With Arab populations "boiling over with frustration", the "transactional" Trump may struggle to strengthen America's "lucrative economic and trade ties" with Arab regimes.

'Penchant for unpredictability'

How Trump might "rearrange the chessboard" of the region is "still unclear", said Aaron Boxerman in The New York Times. The president-elect has "expressed broad support" for Israel's "right to defend itself", but he has also called on Benjamin Netanyahu to "finish up" the campaign. "I'm going to stop wars," Trump said in his victory speech. But the "isolationist forces" in the Republican party and his own "penchant for unpredictability" raise "a mountain of questions", said Tia Goldenberg for PBS News.

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The Israeli government must "brace itself" for a future in which the new Trump administration could be "warm and supportive" but also "tight and tough" when that suits the US agenda, said a leader in The Jerusalem Post. "Ultimately", the Trump White House will "act in accordance with American interests, not Israel's".

Some feel an early hint of Trump's intentions was shown by his choice of Mike Huckabee as his nominee for US ambassador to Israel. Huckabee has been a "consistent supporter" of many Israelis' "ambitions to expand into territories that would form part of any future Palestinian state", wrote Joe Inwood for BBC News. The "right wing of Israeli politics" sees the Huckabee selection as "highly favourable" to their "longstanding aims". By contrast, Mustafa Barghouti, a West Bank-based Palestinian politician, said Huckabee has made statements "absolutely contradictory to international law", and that his appointment would be "really bad news for the cause of peace in this region".

'Nothing fundamental will change'

While some commentators weigh up whether Trump's second presidency will be better or worse for the Middle East, others believe it will make little difference to life on the ground. "Many observers" have predicted that Trump's new administration will be "far worse for Palestine and the Middle East" because of his "pro-Israel rhetoric" and "threats to bomb Iran", wrote Muhannad Ayyash for Al Jazeera. Yet a "closer look" at US foreign policy over the past eight years shows that "nothing fundamental will change for the Palestinian people and the region as a whole".

The Palestinian people have "spent generations" waiting for a US president "who would care enough to hold Israel accountable" and "to see our humanity", wrote Mohammed R. Mhawish for MSNBC. Yet each president "brushes off our reality". So, Trump's "brazen support" for Israel "isn't a deviation" but a "natural progression" of the way in which US presidents have "continually prioritised" geopolitical alliances over "Palestinian lives".