With poll after poll predicting a Labour landslide, inequality rising and trust in politics at a record low, commentators believe that long-term decline in voter turnout may peak at the general election.
With just a month to go, 20% of people have already decided not to vote, according to a survey of 1,645 voting-age Britons by Techne for Independent Media. Apathy is "particularly high among young voters", said The Independent. They believe their problems "have not been addressed by the major parties".
Only four in 10 of young people eligible to vote are planning to do so, according to a survey of 3,000 14- to 24-year-olds by the Duke of Edinburgh's Award (DofE) , published this week. Half (50%) said they disagreed or strongly disagreed with the statement, "I trust politicians to make decisions in my interest".
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A record 45% told the British Social Attitudes survey that politicians can "almost never" be trusted to put country over party, up from 12% since the survey's inception, and an 11-point jump since 2019 alone.
"It's hard to find a reason why the next election would buck the trend of long-term decline in democratic trust and turnout," said Dr Parth Patel, senior research fellow at The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). "If anything, you could see how this election might accelerate it," he told Big Issue.
Only about half of those eligible to vote in Britain did so in the last election. "If democracy is collective self-rule, what about the other half?"
But can you blame them, asks pollster Robert Hayward (also a Tory peer). It is "clear that a lot of voters look politically homeless", he told The Independent. Many Conservative voters are "angry" after 14 years of Tory rule. Labour's Keir Starmer has "failed to seal the deal and convince people he is a prime minister in waiting".
The Conservatives have "shifted further right on policies such as migration to avoid losing voters over to the populist Reform", said The Huffington Post's Kate Nicholson. Labour has "jumped towards the centre to shake off the more left-wing policies of the Jeremy Corbyn era", and has lost voters over the Israel-Hamas war. There's also an "extra barrier": the new requirement for photographic voter ID.
But low voter intent "doesn't mean today's youth are politically disengaged", said Joyce Yang in The Guardian. "Quite the opposite."
People under 25 are the most likely to engage in political activity, according to the British Election Study. They care about the climate crisis and the war in Gaza. They "believe in democracy and social justice". But the average age of a UK MP is about 55 – "and they don't usually try to understand what the younger generation needs", said Yang.
Another "huge factor" is poverty, said Big Issue. The most deprived areas had the lowest turnout in last year's local elections, "with turnout decreasing the poorer the ward was".
In the last two general elections, there were gaps in turnout between the top third and bottom third of earners, as well as between renters and homeowners. These gaps "were negligible in the 1960s".
And this year's election is "set to be the most unequal in 60 years". The UK's income inequality has increased since the end of the pandemic, and will be exacerbated by the cost of living crisis and Brexit. "Destitution has increased by 148% since 2019."
Apathy "may not be the correct way to think of low turnout among those in poverty", said Big Issue – "instead, it's a symptom of disgust at the system".
What next?
One big factor that could drive low turnout is the idea of a "foregone conclusion", politics professor Paul Webb of the University of Sussex told Big Issue – particularly given the long-term polling that points to a Labour majority.
"A lower turnout is generally thought to help the Conservatives more than Labour," he said – but in this case, "I doubt it will save them."
But until young people "turn out in high enough numbers, politicians won't listen to us", said Yang in The Guardian. "Ultimately, democracy doesn't work properly if the participation is disproportionate."
Whoever wins will need "a style and manner of governing that persuades people that the government has their interests at heart after all", Professor Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, told The Times.
"The next government will not simply face the challenge of reviving Britain's stuttering economy and its struggling public services; it will also need to address the concerns of a public that is as doubtful as it has ever been about the trustworthiness and efficacy of the country's system of government."
