Putin and Prigozhin offer rival explanations for Wagner's brief rebellion

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin broke their silence Monday for the first time since Prigozhin called off his mutinous march on Moscow late Saturday. Prigozhin, who is rumored to be in Minsk, Belarus, released an 11-minute audio statement on social media Monday afternoon, justifying Wagner's brief revolt. Putin gave an angry, unscheduled televised speech late Monday night, accusing "the organizers of the rebellion" of treason and "blackmail" but extending an olive branch to Wagner soldiers.

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Prigozhin said Wagner's council of commanders, already angry about the Russian military's plan to subsume the mercenary army, decided to take action only after Moscow ordered an airstrike on a Wagner base, killing about 33 soldiers. One Wagner convoy captured Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters for Russia's southern military district, while another rolled to within 125 miles of Moscow. In 24 hours, he said, "we gave a master class on what should have happened on Feb. 24, 2022," when Russia invaded Ukraine.

On the march, Wagner "blocked and neutralized all military units and airfields that were on our way," and "civilians welcomed us with Russian flags and Wagner Group flags," Prigozhin said. "Some are disappointed that we stopped," but "our goal wasn't to overthrow the current regime and the legally elected authorities, as many have said. We turned around to avoid spilling the blood of Russian soldiers."

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Putin claimed he and Russia's leaders had everything under control, the Russian people were unified against the mutiny, and "the armed rebellion would have been crushed in any event." He did not mention Prigozhin by name, but clearly called him a traitor who led "loyal" Wagner "patriots" astray. Putin said Wagner soldiers and commanders can "continue your service by signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense, or to return to your loved ones. Those who want to go to Belarus may do so. This promise will be kept."

Putin probably wants to retain Pregozhin's well-trained mercenaries for his Ukraine war, but signing contracts with Russia's Ministry of Defense "is likely to be unpalatable to most Wagner fighters, who are intensely loyal to Prigozhin," The Washington Post noted. The Belarusian government is reportedly building a base for up to 8,000 Wagner fighters, and "some Wagner Group forces may follow Prigozhin to Belarus," the Institute for the Study of War said. But "Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap" to flush out Prigozhin-loyal "traitors" for future retribution.

For now, though, nobody appears to be facing any serious consequences. Russia's Federal Security Services (FSB) announced Tuesday it dropped its armed mutiny investigation into Prigozhin and his Wagner muntineers. Formally, Putin "is still the Russian president, but he lost his face in front of the whole country," Russian political analyst Konstantin Gaaze told The Wall Street Journal. "The court of Russian public opinion is culturally determined to succumb to the alpha leader. Putin is the alpha leader no more."