Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't acting irrationally in his invasion of Ukraine, but he made several flawed assumptions beforehand based on bad information and wishful thinking, Andrei Kozyrev, foreign minister of Russia from 1991 to 1996, argued on Twitter Sunday.
On Ukraine, Putin has long believed the country is not really a country at all and, "at best, should be a satellite state," Kozyrev writes. His hopes for indirect control of Ukraine were dashed in 2014's Maidan uprising, so force was his only other option, and "he also started to believe his own propagandists that Ukraine is run by a Nazi-Bandera junta."
So, "if you believe all three of the above to be true and your goal is to restore the glory of the Russian Empire (whatever that means), then it is perfectly rational to invade Ukraine," Kozyrev argues. "He miscalculated on all three, but that doesn't make him insane. Simply wrong and immoral." Read his entire thread to see how Kozyrev arrives at concluding Putin won't use nukes.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
Child trust funds explained as over £1.5 million remains unclaimedThe Explainer HMRC data shows hundreds of thousands of young people have yet to claim money they are entitled to
-
How historically accurate is House of Guinness?In the Spotlight The glossy Netflix show about the family behind the world-famous stout mixes fact with fiction
-
The week’s best photosIn Pictures A perching raven, a fearless climber, and more
-
How should Nato respond to Putin’s incursions?Today’s big question Russia has breached Nato airspace regularly this month, and nations are primed to respond
-
Russia’s war games and the threat to NatoIn depth Incursion into Poland and Zapad 2025 exercises seen as a test for Europe
-
The mission to demine UkraineThe Explainer An estimated quarter of the nation – an area the size of England – is contaminated with landmines and unexploded shells from the war
-
Ottawa Treaty: why are Russia's neighbours leaving anti-landmine agreement?Today's Big Question Ukraine to follow Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as Nato looks to build a new ‘Iron Curtain' of millions of landmines
-
How drone warfare worksThe Explainer From Ukraine to Iran, it has become clear that unmanned aircraft are rapidly revolutionising modern warfare
-
How far would Russia go for Iran?Today's Big Question US air strikes represent an 'embarrassment, provocation and opportunity' all rolled into one for Vladimir Putin
-
Are the UK and Russia already at war?Today's Big Question Moscow has long been on a 'menacing' war footing with London, says leading UK defence adviser
-
Is UK's new defence plan transformational or too little, too late?Today's Big Question Labour's 10-year strategy 'an exercise in tightly bounded ambition' already 'overshadowed by a row over money'
