Why 1988 does and doesn't work as a comparison for the 2020 election

Michael Dukakis.
(Image credit: AP Photo)

President Trump can cite 1988 as proof that summer polling doesn't always hold up when presidential election ballots are tallied in November. That year, the Republican nominee, George H.W. Bush, who was serving as former President Ronald Regan's vice president, was trailing his Democratic opponent, then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, by as many as 17 points in a July Gallup poll. Ultimately, Bush went on to win handily.

But there are several reasons why following the Bush campaign's attack heavy strategy won't necessarily work for the Trump re-election campaign. Per The New York Times, Dukakis' record wasn't very well-known at the time, so the Bush camp took advantage of his support of prison furloughs and death penalty opposition, which became the focus of many attack ads.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up
Explore More
Tim O'Donnell

Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.