2 main reasons Trump's unsubstantiated 'fraud' claims don't make much sense

President Trump and his allies are claiming, in court, on Twitter, and in public — even from the White House — that Democrats are "stealing" the election as urban and mail-in votes get counted in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan, slowly building an Electoral College tally that points to a Joe Biden win. Trump and his team have not provided evidence for these claims, and they don't even really make sense.

This "blue shift" after a "red mirage" was widely predicted months ago, when it became clear Democrats were more likely to mail in their ballots during the COVID-19 pandemic while Trump urged his supporters to vote in person. There was no mirage-and-shift in states like Florida because election officials are allowed to process mail-in votes before Election Day, but in the Upper Midwest, GOP-controlled state legislatures refused to let the count start until Nov. 3.

The first logical problem with Trump's unsubstantiated vote fraud allegations is that Tuesday was actually a really good night for other Republicans. Partly because Trump turned out his base, they won back some House seats and did not, probably, lose the Senate. Republicans also did really well in state legislative races — and all of these were on the same ballot as Trump versus Biden.

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The other problem is that elections are run by state and local governments, not any nationwide entity, making coordinated fraud very implausible, as University of Texas law professor Steve Vladeck notes. Also, state elections in places like Georgia and Arizona are run by Republicans.

Separately, Trump's legal and PR strategy Thursday centered on alleging that his campaigns observers are being blocked from watching the ballot counting. That, also, is demonstrably not true.