Russia's shadow war in Europe

Putin's aim is to sow chaos, spread fear and division, and to disrupt military production

(Image credit: Contributor / Getty Images)

published 8 December 2024

After Ukraine fired British-made Storm Shadow missiles at military targets inside Russia last month, President Putin asserted his "right" to attack the UK and its Western allies in response. But the truth, said Simon Tisdall in The Observer, is that "Britain and its allies have been under constant Russian attack" for years. Using "sabotage, arson, deniable cyberattacks", disinformation and influence operations, Putin has menaced the West for its support of Ukraine. His "shadow war" on Nato members may be becoming more intensive and more dangerous, but it is long established. Putin's aim is to sow chaos, spread fear and division, and to disrupt military production.

Russia's "grey zone" warfare continues every day, said Edward Lucas in The Times. Last month, unidentified drones "buzzed" four US air force bases in Britain; another shadowed HMS Queen Elizabeth while it approached Hamburg. In the Baltic Sea – fast becoming a geopolitical hotspot – two vital data cables were severed last month, apparently by a Chinese-flagged merchant vessel with a Russian crew member. Closer to home, British intelligence suspects that Russia was behind recent bomb scares in London, said Guy Kelly in The Daily Telegraph. The same goes for an explosion at a weapons factory in Wales in April, and a spate of arson attacks across Europe. A young man from Croydon recently pleaded guilty to attacking a Ukrainian-linked business in east London in March in return for Russian money. "Little by little, day by day, Russia is testing the West's patience. The question now is whether we're going to do anything about it."

In recent days, UK officials have been sounding the alarm. The Labour minister Pat McFadden warned that Russia could "turn the lights off for millions of people" with a cyberattack. However, Russia's campaign seems carefully calibrated not to trigger a collective response from Nato, said Mark Galeotti in The Spectator. Rather, the Kremlin is slowly ratcheting up the pressure to see what it can get away with. The thing to remember is that Putin genuinely believes an "implacably Russophobic" West wants to dismember Russia, and is using Ukraine as a weapon in that fight. And it is certainly suffering as a result of the war and Western sanctions. As one hawkish Russian put it: "You try to crash our economy and then whine if you get hacked?" So what should we do? An official from one of the Baltic states told me: "We know the Russians. They will keep up the pressure so long as they think it's working." In other words: "keep calm and carry on".