The rumour mill is working overtime in the Labour Party conference hall – and the gossip is not about Ed Miliband’s keynote speech but about whether David Cameron will recall Parliament this Friday to ask MPs to authorise RAF air strikes on the Islamic State.
The pressure is building after the US extended its air strikes overnight from Iraq to Syria and MPs will have to discuss not just bombing IS targets in Iraq but in Syria too. Which means, of course, attacking the enemies of our older enemy, President Assad.
Downing Street has been taking soundings and appears satisfied that unlike last year when Cameron was defeated on military action against Syria by a combination of Tory rebels, Lib Dems and Labour opposition, there is now support for action against IS, at least in Iraq.
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Nick Robinson, the BBC’s political editor, said Cameron would only recall Parliament if he was confident Labour would support the air strikes: there was “no way” Cameron would go to Parliament if he knew he would lose the vote.
However, the Mole reckons that, with wider popular support this time for military action following three beheadings of western hostages and with Manchester taxi driver Alan Henning under a death threat, Miliband will not want to be isolated by opposing military action against IS.
Chuka Umunna, the shadow business secretary, hinted on Radio 4’s Today programme that Labour would back air strikes. “IS are an evil organisation. What we have seen… beheadings… is inexcusable. But the Prime Minister hasn’t asked us yet.”
Umunna said Labour would apply three tests to supporting action: is it legal in international law; what is the plan of action; and what happens afterwards?
Sources in Cyprus tell The Mole there has been a build-up of activity in recent days at RAF Akrotiri. UK Tornado jets have been flying regularly from the airfield for surveillance missions over Iraq during weeks, but at the weekend they were seen flying in close formation, practising low-level bombing runs.
Friday looks like the obvious day for a recall of Parliament because it would not disrupt the Conservative Party conference beginning on Sunday in Birmingham, and it would give the PM time to get back from New York where is due to hold historic talks at the UN in the next 24 hours with the Iranian leader, Hassan Rouhani.
It is the first time a British prime minister and an Iranian leader have met face-to-face since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Cameron hopes to persuade Rouhani to join the regional coalition in taking on IS. The coalition already includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Qatar, all of whom were named as “partners” in the overnight bombing raids against IS in Syria.
The timing for Cameron is perfect on the domestic front: prime ministers like nothing better than to bestride the world stage, acting prime ministerial, when the Leader of the Opposition has a key speech to make. And if Cameron does call for an emergency session in the Commons on Friday, he gets the added bonus of disrupting Ukip’s party conference at Doncaster, thus belittling Farage and Co at the same time.
Ukip’s economic spokesman and general flag-waver Patrick O’Flynn tweeted: “Just fancy that - Cam may recall Parly on 1st day of UKIP conference to announce that he has finally worked out which side to bomb in Syria.”
There is one consolation for Miliband if he is forced to take second billing to events in New York. At least it will avoid more attention being paid to the disarray at the top of the Labour Party over how it should respond to Cameron’s plans for ‘Home Rule for England’.
Miliband has waffled, wobbled and obfuscated because it could mean stripping 41 Labour MPs with Scottish seats of the right to vote on laws that only affect England. The Daily Telegraph calculates that the two Eds – Miliband and Balls – between them dodged the “English” question 20 times in broadcast interviews conducted over Sunday and Monday.
They won’t be able to dodge the issue forever.
