Former President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign is underway, but he's not the only person battling for the Republican nomination: Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley has entered the race, as have entrepreneur and "anti-woke" activist Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson. His main opponent, though, is undoubtedly Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who recently announced his long-rumored presidential campaign. There's also the historic indictment against the former president concerning a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, as well as his ongoing legal troubles with E. Jean Carroll, who he was found guilty of defaming. Given all of this, how likely is Trump to win the 2024 GOP nomination?
Is Trump the 2024 Republican front-runner?
DeSantis appears to be Trump's main competition. The governor, who was re-elected during the 2022 midterms in a landslide, looks primed to become one of the new faces of the GOP, and is the candidate who appears most likely to go head-to-head with Trump. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush released a video endorsing DeSantis before his candidacy was even announced.
DeSantis, however, is likely going to have a tough time against Trump, as the former president continues to surge despite possible criminal charges and continued lawsuits. In a Harvard/Harris poll released May 19, which polled voters in a hypothetical Republican primary of nine candidates, 58% threw their support behind Trump, while just 16% chose DeSantis. This poll represents a three-point gain for Trump and a four-point drop for DeSantis in just a month. DeSantis does not fare any better in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, with 65% choosing Trump to DeSantis' 35%. Other recent polls, including one from Florida Atlantic University released in mid-May, have similarly shown overwhelming GOP support for Trump, even in the state DeSantis governs.
But could Trump's momentum be rendered moot now that he has been indicted for the Stormy Daniels case, and found liable in E. Jean Carroll's defamation trial? There's nothing in the Constitution that prohibits an indicted person, or even a convicted felon, from running for president. But would people vote for someone like that? A CNN poll from early April, also with a four-point margin of error, found that 60% of Americans approved of Trump's indictment, and a recent YouGov/Economist poll found that among 1,500 citizens polled, 54% did not want him to run for president again.
However, while Democrats are united at 94% in their support of the indictment, 79% of Republicans — the ones who would actually vote in the GOP primaries — were against Trump's charges, per CNN. And just four in 10 Americans polled say he acted illegally. So it seems that even though Trump was indicted, his supporters are rallying around him, and the charges may do little to dampen his support in the primaries, according to The Conversation. But a general election could tell a different story.
Who else is running?
Nikki Haley officially announced her candidacy on Feb. 14. "The socialist left sees an opportunity to rewrite history," says Haley in a campaign video. "China and Russia are on the march. They all think we can be bullied, kicked around. You should know this about me: I don't put up with bullies. And when you kick back, it hurts them more if you're wearing heels." The former U.N. ambassador called for a "new generation of leadership," ostensibly playing into the seemingly post-Trump rhetoric recently used by rumored presidential hopeful Mike Pence. Haley once told The Associated Press she wouldn't run if Trump also intended to do so.
Another announced GOP candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, is a dark horse contender who says he's running for president to eliminate the country's "national identity crisis." In his campaign announcement, Ramaswamy said: "We've celebrated our 'diversity' so much that we forgot all the ways we're really the same as Americans." The tech guru has also written books decrying woke-ism and has pushed popular GOP platforms such as strengthening the border and eliminating affirmative action. Given the high-profile nature of the other candidates, though, The Associated Press said Ramaswamy's push for the White House is a "longshot bid."
Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, is also running. A consistent critic of Trump, Hutchinson told ABC News that the former president should drop out of the race given the indictment, saying, "I do believe if we're looking at the presidency and the future of our country, then we don't need that distraction." He acknowledges that he himself might have trouble breaking through in today's political climate, telling Jonathan Karl that it will take "a lot of hard work and good messaging" to stand out and that the American people "want leaders that appeal to the best of America and not simply appeal to our worst instincts."
Tim Scott, meanwhile, entered the race trying to paint himself as a moderate Republican, saying he was a supporter of "traditional conservative values." GOP pollster Frank Luntz told The Guardian that Scott was "the exact opposite of Donald Trump, and that's why he is so intriguing. He is as nice and kind-hearted as Trump is tough and critical."
But do any of these candidates have a chance against the two front-runners? Almost certainly not, according to most polling. A Morning Consult poll from May 23 surveyed 3,526 potential GOP primary voters. With a 2% margin of error, the results had Haley and Ramaswamy polling at 4%, Scott polling at 2%, and Hutchinson not garnering any percentage. Pence, who has not even announced he is running, polled higher than all of them with 6%.
Who thinks Trump won't be the nominee?
Democrats performed significantly better than expected in the midterms, and much of the blame for this was placed on Trump, who saw almost all of his endorsed candidates lose by large margins. Many in the GOP were quick to brand the former president a loser, and some, such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, urged others in the party to leave Trump behind, especially in the wake of his indictment.
Another prominent Republican and often outspoken critic of Trump, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, told CNN that the ex-president is to blame for Republicans' midterm losses. "It's basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race, and it's like, three strikes, you're out," says Hogan.
However, as Trump's numbers continue to rise, some in the party are trying to reevaluate the GOP's 2024 ambitions, The Hill reported. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she was "certainly looking" for a new face of the party, saying if the race was between Trump or DeSantis, "Republicans are doomed." Other senators have also thrown their support behind other candidates, with South Dakota's John Thune, the number two Republican in the Senate, endorsing Scott.
Who thinks Trump will be the nominee?
Quite a few Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, the chair of the House Republican Conference, is one of the highest-ranking GOP members to publicly support Trump's 2024 bid.
Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, a physician who was previously Trump's medical adviser, tweeted, "President Trump is the Greatest President I've ever seen. I'm on his side 100%! President Trump Has My Complete And Total Endorsement!!!" This sentiment is echoed by Kari Lake, who lost her 2022 campaign to become governor of Arizona. Lake, tweeted that Trump has her "complete and total endorsement."
Another person backing Trump is Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R). She has been a staunch supporter of Trump throughout her time in Congress, and reports suggest she may be vying to be his vice presidential pick in 2024.
Updated May 25, 2023: This article has been updated throughout.
