Election 2015: Nick Robinson, one man who’d welcome a second election

Will immigration figures help Ukip?

Posted at 11.06, Thurs 26 Feb 2015

Will today’s immigration figures, which clearly play into the hands of Ukip, be enough to give Nigel Farage and his party the boost they need after a succession of polls has shown support falling?

The media excitement which surrounded Ukip’s success in two by-elections last autumn has dissipated to the point where Times columnist Tim Montgomerie is arguing that unless Farage wins South Thanet on 7 May, Ukip could quickly fall part. And the Election Forecast website suggests the Tories have a 95 per cent chance of stopping the Ukip leader taking the Kent seat.

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Ukip’s “leading lights” are hopelessly divided on many issues, says Montgomerie. For example, Patrick O’Flynn, the party’s economics spokesman, has advocated a tax on luxury goods and has welcomed George Osborne’s high rates of stamp duty on large properties. Farage, however, has described such measures as “hate taxes” – and as party leader, his opinion tends to hold sway.

Paul Nuttall, Ukip’s economics spokesman, wants sex education for under-11s scrapped. Farage says he favours sex education for under-11s as part of a “rounded education”. Etcetera, etcetera.

So long as Farage remains leader, this misfit coalition “will probably be kept together”, says Montgomerie. But if Ukip wins between six and a dozen seats and Farage loses in Thanet, the party's "centre of gravity" will move to Westminster and he will be bound to hand over the leadership. At which point Ukip "is unlikely to last much longer”.

Ed Balls, sex symbol (for men and women)

Posted at 10.50, Thurs 26 Feb 2015

Ed Balls a sex symbol? Possibly. The shadow chancellor was apparently left blushing on his 48th birthday yesterday when LBC Radio host Iain Dale surprised him with a package of men and women rating his sexual attractiveness.

Balls “raised his eyebrows” and gave the thumbs-up after a male interviewee said: “Yikes! He could rock my world, sure”, the Daily Mirror reports.

One woman said: “He’s quite attractive I suppose, yes.” Sadly another spoiled the atmosphere by saying she would only spend the night with Balls if she was “desperate”.

Dale was reacting to the news that Mumsnet followers have been rating politicians as potential lovers. Barack Obama came top, with Nick Clegg second and Gordon Brown – “mysterious and moody” - third.

Read the Daily Mirror report in full

MPs keep right to two jobs – for now

Posted at 10.50, Thurs 26 Feb 2015

Labour’s call for a ban on MPs holding paid directorships or consultancies was defeated in the House of Commons yesterday - but Ed Miliband looks unlikely to drop the idea as an election campaign issue.

In the wake of the “cash for access” allegations against Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Jack Straw, Labour have the public on side. A poll this week showed two-thirds favouring a ban on MPs holding two jobs, and only one-third against.

Miliband exploited the issue at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday – and, according to The Spectator’s James Forsyth, came out with a “points victory”.

David Cameron tried to bury it by arguing that the Labour proposal would not deal with paid union officials becoming Labour MPs. “Miliband then, nimbly, said that he’d be happy to amend it to make it clear that this was banned too,” writes Forsyth, “at which point Cameron was pinned back on the ropes.”

Nevertheless, the Labour motion was defeated later in the day by 287 to 219. But Miliband says the party will honour its commitment and amend its own standing orders to ensure the ban applies to its candidates and MPs. And if Labour win the election, they will seek again to introduce a rule limiting MPs' outside earnings to 10 or 15 per cent on top of their £67,500 parliamentary salaries.

Tory alarm at losing London seats

Posted at 10.50, Thurs 26 Feb 2015

“Alarm bells are ringing” at Tory HQ after new YouGov polling showed Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives in London and set to take four Tory-held seats on 7 May, Don Brind writes.

It’s part of a broader ‘English problem’ for the Conservatives. They beat Labour by more than 11 per cent at the 2010 election but that advantage has slipped to the point where they could lose 40 seats to Labour across England.

Read Don Brind’s column in full

Cracknell, Dan Snow 'eye Kensington'

Posted at 10.04, Wed 25 Feb 2015

Olympic rower James Cracknell and the equally square-jawed TV historian Dan Snow head a string of celebrity names said to be eager to stand for the Tories in the plum seat of Kensington following Sir Malcolm Rifkind’s decision to stand down.

Footballers Frank Lampard and Sol Campbell and cricketer Andrew Strauss are also mentioned in overnight reports, as is Jeremy Paxman, who lives in the borough. But Cracknell and Snow seem the most likely contenders – unless the Kensington Conservatives give it to Tory councillor Greg Smith, the current favourite with Ladbrokes.

Cracknell is keen to find a seat, says the Daily Mail: he recently failed to get selected for Bexhill and Battle and for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which went to Boris Johnson. But according to The Sun, Dan Snow – a great-great-grandson of Lloyd George – is the man the Tory leadership wants: he is said to have been contacted by No 10 within hours of Rifkind’s resignation.

What persuaded Rifkind to step down?

Posted at 10.00, Wed 25 Feb 2015

Sir Malcolm Rifkind made his decision to stand down as chairman of the Intelligence Committee and as Tory MP for Kensington (see above) after realising fellow Tories saw him as an embarrassment, The Times reports today.

Having been caught in a sting operation volunteering to open doors for a (bogus) Chinese company in return for a minimum daily fee of £5,000, he was told by Michael Gove, the Tory chief whip, that there would be a party inquiry into whether he had brought the party into disrepute as well as whether he had broken any parliamentary rules.

“He realised that party figures were holding him to a far lower standard than rule-breaking: they were asking whether he had caused them embarrassment.”

Times columnist Philip Webster adds that a lack of support among Tory MPs was also a big factor in Rifkind’s decision to quit. “I was told that at one gathering on Monday night of Tory MPs not one voice spoke up in favour of him staying on.”

Green ‘car crash’ or media stitch-up?

Posted at 10.00, Wed 25 Feb 2015

Green party leader Natalie Bennett’s “excruciating” interview – her own word – with LBC’s Nick Ferrari yesterday may not prove as serious for her supporters as non-Greens might think, The Mole writes.

Philip Cowley of Nottingham University says research shows that what matters to Green voters are values rather than detailed policy and they don’t tend to trust the media anyway which they see as part of the political establishment.

“So, looking at yesterday’s incident through Green eyes," says The Mole, "it was not a car-crash interview - it was a stitch-up by the media."

Read The Mole’s column in full

EU popularity up, Ukip support down

Posted at 10.00, Wed 25 Feb 2015

Voters who favour Britain staying IN Europe outnumber those who want OUT by the biggest margin since YouGov began polling on the subject in 2010, writes poll-watcher Don Brind. The finding comes as yet another poll shows support for Ukip flagging.

As for the main parties’ current fortunes, a new monthly Survation poll gives Labour a six-point lead over the Tories while the latest daily YouGov poll has the Conservatives two points ahead. It’s another day of “poller opposites”.

Read Don Brind’s column in full