Election 2015: Nick Robinson, one man who’d welcome a second election

Can Osborne's Budget really do it for Tories?

Posted at 10.15, Thurs 19 March 2015

Much is hanging on George Osborne's Budget. But history tells us that the Tories would be unwise to pin their hopes on it changing public opinion enough to give them the poll boost they need, Don Brind writes.

Research by Ian Jones at UK General Election shows only two Osborne Budgets have had a lasting effect on opinion polls. The 2010 Budget led to the Lib Dems' share of the vote sinking, while the 2012 Budget - the notorious 'omnishambles' - allowed Labour to open up a seven-point lead over the Tories.

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Read Don Brind's column in full

Blame Lynton Crosby for ‘simplistic’ Budget

Posted at 10.15, Thurs 19 March 2015

Yesterday’s Budget was the latest example of the Tories’ risk-averse strategy and leaves them without a vision, argues Tim Montgomerie in The Times. And he blames the “simplistic repetitive, dull, muscular, negative” approach of Lynton Crosby, the Tories’ chief election strategist.

The Australian’s mantra is: “Voters only need to know two things about the economy: it was broken five years ago by the other lot and it’s OK again now under us.”

George Osborne duly delivered that message in his Budget speech. But he offered “no solution to the housing crisis. No answer to Britain’s productivity weaknesses. No explanation of how the still historically large deficit will eventually be closed.”

Montgomerie is a Tory – he used to edit Conservative Home and he’s the co-author of the recently launched “compassionate Conservative” initiative, The Good Right. But he hopes Crosby is not allowed to continue his domination of the Conservative Party after 7 May and that “big Tory brains” are allowed once more to have their say.

“Crosby’s political recipe might be enough to beat Ed Miliband," says Montgomerie. "It’s not enough to build a Conservative party that deserves to win elections or to stop the decline of faith in our political system.”

Read Tim Montgomerie’s Times article in full

‘Two-faced’ Danny Alexander has his day

Posted at 10.15, Thursday 19 March 2015

Last night, Danny Alexander was boasting that the Budget was “a Lib Dem Budget” – one his party was happy to sign up to. This morning, The Mole writes, he’s been trying to disown it and put the knife into George Osborne.

Why? Because today’s the day the Lib Dems lay out how they would do things if Britain were to be run by a Lib Dem government. And it would be a lot “fairer” than the Tory way, Alexander will assure us.

Read The Mole’s column in full

A game-changing Budget? Don't bank on it

Posted at 16.55, Wed 18 March 2015

George Osborne gave savers a break, raised the tax threshold again, took a penny of a pint, introduced a highter levy on banks, announed a new 'help-to-buy' ISA and generally tried to answer those critics who say the Conservative Party is not on the side of most voters, The Mole writes.

But the view in Westminster following today's Budget speech was that not one of the measures felt big and bold enough to transform voters’ perceptions and give the Tories the boost in the polls they desperately need with only seven weeks to go before the general election.

Read The Mole's column in full

Budget summary: the highlights of Osborne's speech

Top Ten most loathed politcal cliches

Posted at 09.07, Wed 18 March 2015

As George Osborne prepares to get to his feet and make all sorts of promises to “hard-working families” about the Tories’ “long-term economic plan” – he should know that both phrases are a big turn-off for listeners beyond the Commons.

A poll conducted by polifiller.com has come up with this Top Ten list of most-loathed, patronising, self-aggrandising political clichés and double-speak:

1 ‘Hard-working families’

2 ‘Let me be clear’

3 ‘The economic mess’

4 ‘Long term economic plan’

5 ‘Failed economic plan’

6 ‘The Great British people’

7 ‘What we’ve said is’

8 ‘I don’t intend to give a running commentary’

9 ‘Up and down the country’

10 ‘I say this’

Falling just outside the Top Ten were ‘package of measures’ and ‘we’re all in this together’.

Lawson: how to scrap winter fuel payment

Posted at 09.00, Wed 18 March 2015

There is a way George Osborne could abandon the winter fuel allowance in today’s Budget without taking away from poor pensioners who genuinely need it, says the former Tory chancellor, Nigel Lawson, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.

Last year, he says, Osborne “rightly took the view that it was wrong to patronise the elderly by assuming that, if they were not forced to buy annuities, they would blow all their savings and become destitute.

“In a similar way, he could decide that the elderly are aware that they use more fuel in winter, and should not be patronised by being given a winter fuel payment, as if the onset of winter always takes them by surprise.

“This should be done by replacing the winter fuel payment with an equivalent increase in the basic pension – which is, of course, taxable; thus ending, in the simplest possible way, the nonsense of the rich receiving a tax-free Christmas present from the state, and making a modest improvement to the public finances at the same time.”

Will Osborne go for it? Lawson - “sadly” – doesn’t expect to see it happen. We’ll find out soon enough: the Chancellor begins his Budget speech at 12.30 pm.

Read Nigel Lawson’s Telegraph article in full

Budget predictions: see The Week’s summary

Marginal polling dashes Tory hopes

Posted at 09.00, Wed 18 March, 2015

New Ashcroft polling from eight Tory-held marginals which Labour has targeted for victory on 7 May has not delivered the good news David Cameron had been expecting, Don Brind writes.

Tory HQ had hoped that the national voting trend towards the Tories - who were five points behind Labour last autumn but are now running neck-and-neck - would feed through to the marginals and give them hope of holding on to crucial seats.

Instead, new Ashcroft surveys in the eight marginals shows the Tories likely to keep only one of them, Worcester. In another, Southampton Itchen, Labour have converted a tie last autumn into an eight-point lead.

Read Don Brind's column in full

PM agrees to one-off seven-way TV debate

Posted at 18.56, Tues 17 March 2015

David Cameron has agreed to take part in a single seven-way TV election debate on 2 April, following talks between Downing Street and the broadcasters designed to break the logjam, Nigel Horne reports.

According to The Guardian, the Tories believe the offer is close enough to Cameron’s final ultimatum – a single multi-party debate in the last week of March - to be acceptable.

But there’s a catch – as there always has been in this long-running saga. The Tories are claiming that Labour are trying to veto the plan, wanting to hold out for the original broadcasters’ offer – two multi-leader debates and a head-to-Ed between the two main party leaders.

Labour, according to The Times, say this allegation is “preposterous”: they didn’t even know about the offer put directly to Downing Street, so how could they veto it?

What happens next is unclear. No one is pretending it’s the perfect solution – the Guardian quotes an anonymous broadcaster saying: “It’s a bit crap, isn’t it?” – but at this late stage it may be the only solution. In which case, David Cameron has got his way.

Don't mention Dave, Tory MP urges locals

Posted at 10.18, Tues 17 March 2015

London commuters were regaled yesterday afternoon with the tale of a Tory MP who asked constituents to write letters of support - saying what a wonderful chap he was - but not to mention the Tories or David Cameron.

Gavin Barwell, MP for the marginal seat of Croydon Central, wrote to local people: “I’m not asking you to write a political letter — in fact, it’ll be much more effective if it doesn’t mention the Conservative Party or David Cameron.”

Just to be helpful, he sent “sample letters” which, according to the Evening Standard, all began “Dear neighbour” and went on to describe an incident where Barwell had helped them, ending with variations on the phrase: “I really can’t recommend Gavin strongly enough.”

Labour, needless to say, had a field day at his expense, the candidate in Croydon Central, Sarah Jones, saying: “It’s a sign of real desperation that Gavin Barwell is actively telling people not to call him a Tory.”

Barwell insisted: “The purpose is not to send political letters. The purpose of the letters is a personal endorsement of my work as MP.” He said he had put David Cameron at the forefront of his own campaign leaflets.

Read the Evening Standard report in full