Election 2015: Nick Robinson, one man who’d welcome a second election

Harriet Who? Labour 'defection' falls flat

Posted at 09.35, Wed 18 Feb 2015

Ever since the Tory MPs Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless deserted their party to join Ukip, Nigel Farage has been promising us a high-profile Labour defector. Yesterday, he did his best to produce one – and the news fell as flat as a Shrove Tuesday pancake.

The great defector was Harriet Yeo, said by the Daily Telegraph to be “one of Labour’s most senior figures” because of her short tenure in 2012-13 as chairman of the party’s National Executive Committee.

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She had resigned, the paper reported, and would be supporting Ukip because she was “so disillusioned” with Ed Miliband's failure to offer a referendum on Britain's continued membership of the EU.

The Daily Mail went further and described her as a "key aide". The only trouble was that no Labour Party stalwart could think who she was. Harriet Who? was the first response.

Labour List later reported that there was more to Yeo’s departure than the press had apparently realised. She had been removed as Labour leader of Ashford Council last week, “after being accused of non-attendance at council meetings and a failure to undertake council casework”.

As a result, she was de-selected on Monday night as a candidate for the 2015 local elections. Her decision to quit came the next day.

UK growth on best form since 2007

Posted at 11.15, Wed 18 Feb 2015

The UK economy grew last year by 2.6 per cent - the strongest annual rate of economic growth since before the crash - according to latest stats from the Office for National Statistics. And the percentage of those out of work is down to 5.7, writes The Mole.

Coming hot on the heels of figures showing inflation down to 0.3 per cent and wages up by 2.1 per cent, will David Cameron and George Osborne finally get the bounce in the polls they've been hoping for?

Read The Mole's column in full

Telegraph refutes Oborne criticism

Posted at 10.30, Wed 18 Feb 2015

The Daily Telegraph has hit back at its former chief political commentator, Peter Oborne, saying it utterly refutes his allegation that the paper has suppressed news coverage of HSBC affairs for fear of losing advertising revenue.

But fellow journalists are backing Oborne, with Professor Jay Rosen at New York University calling his valedictory article published by Open Democracy yesterday "one of the most important things a journalist has written about journalism lately".

Read the first reaction to Oborne's departure

Popularity contest: Ed vs Dave

Posted at 09.30, Wed 18 Feb 2015

David Cameron's decline in popularity - something that affects any incumbent prime minister - is actually more of a problem for the Tories than Ed Miliband's low rating is for Labour, says LSE researcher Jack Blumenau.

Having studied the link between leaders' ratings and election results down the years, Blumenau has found that it's the change in the ratings that's important - not the actual numbers.

As Don Brind writes, Miliband didn't have a hard act to follow in taking over from the equally unpopular Gordon Brown. Which means his lack of popularity is not such a big deal for Labour - because nothing much has changed.

Read Don Brind's column in full

Peter Oborne quits Daily Telegraph

Posted at 19.43, Tues 17 Feb 2015

One of Britain’s most respected political journalists, Peter Oborne, has walked out of his job as chief political commentator for the Daily Telegraph, claiming the paper’s coverage of the HSBC affair has been “a fraud on its readers”.

Oborne is not the first political writer to leave the Telegraph in recent months – but he is the first to explain himself. He has done so in an article posted today on the Open Democracy website where he claims that the Telegraph's management has suppressed news coverage of HSBC for fear of losing advertising revenue. Whether you support his decision to quit or not, it is well worth a read.

Among his peers, Oborne is considered first and foremost a Spectator writer and only last week he wrote a typically defiant article for the mag in which he argued – against received thinking at the Spectator and indeed the Telegraph – that Ed Miliband was a “more interesting, significant and distinctive figure” than he is given credit for.

Yet for showing courage and principle, Oborne argued, Miliband had been trashed and ridiculed. “Consider this,” he concluded, “if Ed Miliband does become prime minister, he will have done so without owing anything to anybody.”

Read Peter Oborne’ resignation article in full

Tories 'get nasty' with YouTube campaign

Posted at 10.05, Tues 17 Feb 2015

The Tory party is spending £100,000 a month waging a “dirty and dangerous guerilla campaign” against Labour online, says The Times columnist Rachel Sylvester.

Conservative HQ is financing 30-second US-style ‘attack ads’ which are run as ‘pre-rolls’ on YouTube. Such ads are banned on TV but not on social media or video-sharing websites – and the Conservatives are exploiting the loophole “ruthlessly”, says Sylvester.

One video - ‘Ed’s rules for being a leader’ - runs through a list of the Labour leader’s supposed shortcomings before concluding: ‘Ed Miliband — he’s just not up to it’. Another depicts a gormless-looking Miliband playing Scrabble and struggling to spell the word ‘deficit’.

“It is hard to imagine the Tories using character assassination so overtly in a national party election broadcast because they would fear a backlash against what would be seen as ‘nasty’ politics,” says Sylvester.

Read Rachel Sylvester’s article in full

Unholy row as bishops offer voting advice

Posted at 10.00, Tues 17 Feb 2015

Conservative MPs are furious about a letter being sent out to parishes today by Church of England bishops in which they offer advice on what good Christians should take into account before casting their votes on 7 May.

The Church is insisting that the letter is not party political, writes The Mole, yet it raises questions about the coalition’s policies on unemployment, poverty, Europe and the replacement of the Trident nuclear missile.

The suggestion appears to be that a God-fearing Christian might consider voting SNP before electing a Tory government. But have the bishops got their facts right?

Read The Mole's column in full

Osborne: how to avoid inheritance tax

Posted at 10.00, Tues 17 Feb 2015

An embarrassing clip has emerged of George Osborne advising someone who called into a TV show how they might avoid inheritance tax. It happened in May 2003 when the young backbencher was starring as the “parliamentary doctor” on the BBC’s Daily Politics.

Osborne told the caller – Bill - that there some “clever financial products” available that would allow him to leave property to his children and avoid inheritance tax – and ensure the state then paid for his care. "I probably shouldn't be advocating this on television," he said.

The video was unearthed by the Huffington Post, which reports that Osborne went on to become shadow chancellor and in 1997 “did his best to help people like Bill by promising to triple the inheritance tax threshold from £300,000 to £1m if the Tories won the next election”.

See the Daily Politics clip here

The special pain of losing your job as an MP

Posted at 10.00, Tues 17 Feb 2015

Spare a thought for those MPs who will lose their seats on 7 May. The experience can be devastating, says Jane Roberts, a former Labour leader of Camden council who has researched the subject for the Open University.

Roberts interviewed 30 MPs who lost their jobs at the 2010 election and found that many put on a “bravura act” that masked “an array of turbulent emotions: shock, hurt, devastation, guilt, betrayal, a sense of failure, contagion and sometimes shame”.

Electoral defeat is a remarkably sudden death, says Roberts in an article for The Conversation. The shock of losing is particularly strong because an MP has to keep going through months of intense campaigning and must never countenance the possibility of not winning. “You can’t think you are going to lose,” said one former MP, “otherwise you do…”

Read The Conversation article in full

Tories up - and down - in new opinion polls

Posted at 10.00, Tues 17 Feb 2015

Conservatives are celebrating a new ICM poll for The Guardian released yesterday which gave David Cameron’s party a sensational six per cent jump in support - despite last week's difficulties over party donors and tax avoidance.

If the Tories could take that figure and improve on it in the coming weeks, they might confound porevious poll results and win the election, writes Don Brind.

However – and it’s a big HOWEVER – this wasn’t the only poll released yesterday. A new Ashcroft National Poll shows Conservative support falling four points, allowing Labour to gain the lead for the first time this year in an Ashcroft poll.

Where do these two opposite polls leave us?

Read Don Brind's column in full

Tax avoidance passes Dog & Duck test

Posted at 12.12, Mon 16 Feb 2015

Tax avoidance – subject of last week’s biggest political row – passed the Dog and Duck test: it has been talked about not just by journalists and politicians, but by voters – in the pub, on the bus, round the water cooler.

As a result of achieving what the spin-doctors call “cut-through”, it could give Labour a boost in the polls. Although questions have been asked of both main parties about potentially “dodgy donors”, the Tories have undoubtedly been hit harder by the accusations.

Evidence that the subject is of popular interest comes from a tracker poll, run by YouGov and Cambridge University’s Polis project, which asks people what political stories running in the media they’ve heard about recently, and what they think of them.

Most media stories register in low single figures, but according to YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare, writing for The Times, “the tax avoidance story rose steeply and in the last two days of the week it come crashing through at 17 per cent, by far the highest we have recorded in recent months”.

Compare that with ‘paternity leave’ which was mentioned by four per cent and, simply, ‘the general election’, mentioned by seven per cent.

Will tax avoidance give Labour, already ahead in Sunday's polls, a further boost? Watch this space.

All MPs should see a shrink, says Campbell

Posted at 10.18, Mon 16 Feb 2015

All politicians should see a psychiatrist, says Tony Blair’s former spinmeister Alastair Campbell, to help them deal with the stress. Indeed, when Blair and Gordon Brown’s relationship was in the pits, he urged them to get “couple’s counseling”. Shame they didn’t listen.

The revelation is included in Campbell’s new book, Winners and How They Succeed, serialised in The Sunday Times, in which he argues that to become effective leaders politicians should emulate top people in sport and business, and employ psychologists – as opposed to psychiatrists - to help them improve their performance.

Campbell himself hired Andy McCann, a mental skills coach to the Wales rugby team, to help him prepare for his appearance at the Chilcot Inquiry. “That was nerve-racking,” he said. Will he have McCann standing by when the Chilcot Report drops? Campbell is one of 30 people who have been sent letters warning them that they have been heavily criticised in the report.

Read an extract from Campbell’s book here

Dear Ed - Hugs and kisses from Mandy

Posted at 10.10, Mon 16 Feb 2015

Lord (Peter) Mandelson has embraced Ed Miliband's new "middle out" policy for business in a late Valentine's card - well, an article in The Guardian - writes The Mole.

Mandelson is making amends for the very public criticism he and other Blairites have levelled in recent weeks at Team Miliband - and his intervention will be warmly welcomed.

It comes just a week after Tony Blair himself said he would do "whatever the party asks" to help Miliband win the election. Was a phone call to Mandy Ed Miliband's first request?

Read The Mole's column in full

Ed Miliband channels Lleyton Hewitt

Posted at 10.10, Mon 16 Feb 12015

Ed Miliband is beginning to look like the LLeyton Hewitt of politics. Say again? Lleyton Hewitt, the punchy Australian who made his mark by turning powerful ground-strokes against him into winning returns.

“Fourteen years ago, Hewitt was the best counter-puncher around,” writes Henry G Manson for PoliticalBetting.com. “He didn’t have a big serve, or big forehand or backhand. Despite this, for several years he took the booming ground-shots and serves of opponents and steered them back with interest.”

Manson believes that Miliband’s response last week to the “orchestrated attack” of Boot boss Stefano Pessina and other big businesses close to the Tory party is “the most significant political event of the election campaign” so far. It’s almost as though he’s come on court with a new coach.

Read Henry G Manson’s article in full

Punters vs pollsters: who's got it right?

Posted at 10.10, Mon 16 Feb 2015

Why are punters backing the Tories to win the election when virtually all the latest polls show Labour ahead, asks Don Brind.

What's interesting is that they did exactly the same last time, piling money on a Tory majority when all the polls suggested it wouldn't happen.

Of course, it could be the pollsters who've got it wrong. But their predictions at this stage in the 2010 pre-election cycle were spot on: who's to say they won't be right again?

Read Don Brind's column in full