Election 2015: Nick Robinson, one man who’d welcome a second election

Sturgeon challenges Ed to team up

Posted at 10.37, Sun 5 April 2015

As the row over whether Nicola Sturgeon really told a French diplomat that she would prefer David Cameron to win the election and that Ed Miliband “was not prime ministerial” refuses to subside, the SNP leader has offered to help make Miliband the next prime minister even if Labour wins fewer seats than the Tories on 7 May.

In an article for The Observer today, she challenges Miliband to lead Labour into an anti-austerity alliance with the SNP, whether Labour or the Tories emerge on 8 May as the larger party in a hung parliament.

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“If together our parties have the parliamentary numbers required after 7 May, and regardless of which is the biggest party, will he and Labour join with us in locking David Cameron out of Downing Street?” she asks.

Meanwhile, Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood has launched an investigation into how the damaging Foreign Office memo came to be leaked to the Tory-supporting Daily Telegraph – whether or not there is any truth in the allegation that Sturgeon expressed a preference for Cameron.

The SNP leader continues to deny she ever said such a thing: but Westminster sceptics believe that whether she said it or not, it is what she secretly wishes – because a pact with the Tories is more likely than one with Labour to deliver Home Rule for Scotland and even total independence.

Read Nicola Sturgeon's Observer article in full

Tories slip back from 37% rating

Posted at 10.30, Sun 5 April 2015

The Tories have fallen back slightly in the two main Sunday paper polls but still have a one-point lead over Labour - by 34 to 33 per cent - with YouGov in the Sunday Times.

The result will be a disappointment for Team Cameron because it represents a three-point dip since Friday’s YouGov poll for The Sun when for the first time in three years the Tories hit 37 per cent – an iconic figure because it was their national vote share in the 2010 election.

Latest YouGov figures: Con 34 (down 3), Lab 33 (down 2), Lib Dems 10 (up 3), Ukip 13 (up 1), Greens 4 (down 1).

In The Observer, Opinium shows the Conservatives dropping one point to tie with Labour. Con 33 (down 1), Lab 33 (u/c), Lib Dems 7 (down 1), Ukip 14 (up 1), GRN 7 (u/c).

But the most controversial poll of the day, Don Brind writes, is a private one commissioned from ComRes by Ukip and “hushed up” by the party – according the Mail on Sunday – because it shows Nigel Farage facing potential defeat in South Thanet.

Read Don Brind’s article in full

Ed achieves first positive approval rating

Posted at 09.34, Sat 4 April 2015

Ed Miliband has reached a personal landmark according to the latest Survation poll for the Daily Mirror: he finally has a plus sign after his name when it comes to the question of how well he is doing his job, Don Brind reports.

The Labour leader has jumped eight points from minus-four to plus-four in the wake of his recent performances on television – impressive, though not as impressive as Nicola Sturgeon who has jumped a massive 15 points.

Latest ratings: David Cameron +8, Ed Miliband +4, Nick Clegg -6, Nigel Farage +6, Natalie Bennett +3, Leanne Wood +12, Nicola Sturgeon +15.

The boost for Miliband will confirm David Cameron’s view that he was right to stymie a head-to-head with the Labour leader in favour of what the Twittersphere called the “mass debate”.

As for voting intentions, the weekly Survation poll has Labour ahead of the Tories by two points, as it was last week: Con 31 (unchanged), Lab 33 (u/c), Ukip 18 (up 1), Lib Dems 9 (u/c), SNP 5 (u/c), Greens 3 (down 1).

Sturgeon rejects Telegraph scoop

Posted at 09.30, Sat 4 April 2015

Nicola Sturgeon has categorically denied that she told the French ambassador to the UK during a private meeting in February that she would prefer David Cameron to win the general election and that Ed Miliband was “not PM material”.

The claim is made by the Daily Telegraph, based on a leaked civil service memo which purports to give an account of the meeting on 26 February.

But as Jack Bremer reports, the SNP leader says it is 100 per cent untrue and she has the backing of the French consul-general in Edinburgh who says there’s nothing in his notes to suggest Sturgeon ever said such a thing.

Read Jack Bremer’s report in full

Business chiefs' letter an own goal?

Posted at 11.54, Fri 3 April 2015

Has the carefully choreographed letter to the Daily Telegraph signed by 103 Big Business bosses urging the country not to vote Labour turned out to be an own goal for the Tories?

Three of the bosses have now distanced themselves from the letter saying their views, or those of their companies, were misrepresented as an endorsement for the Tories. They are Pascal Soriot, chief executive of AstraZeneca, Jim Mullen of Ladbrokes and the independent cross-bench peer Lord Bilimoria, co-founder of Cobra beer.

That’s embarrassing – but there’s a more fundamental problem raised by Spectator columnist Alex Massie. The letter reminds voters “that the Conservative party is the party of big business. And it does so at a time when big business is barely more trusted than Ed Miliband.”

Massie says there’s a widespread suspicion that things have gone wrong with capitalism. “Many people feel that the system is broken – it serves the interests of the few, not the many. Those at the top are fine; those below less fine. It’s not fair.”

It doesn’t actually matter very much whether these grumblings are based on fact or not. What matters is that they are widely believed to be true and it’s not helping the Tory cause.

Few people really mind, says Massie, that David Cameron and his “chums” went to Eton. But they do mind that “the party seems so tone-deaf so often. That it struggles to empathise with the ballyhooed ordinary hard-working families. That it is out of touch and, worse, unconcerned.”

Read Alex Massie’s article in full

Why Tories are bigging up the SNP

Posted at 10.30, Fri 3 April 2015

Who failed to catch David Cameron smiling when the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon attacked Ed Miliband during last night’s debate for supporting Tory cuts?

And why was Tory chief whip Michael Gove so keen to praise Sturgeon this morning as “the most impressive debutante”?

It’s all part of a Tory drive to get as many Scots as possible to vote SNP instead of Labour – and boost David Cameron’s chances of remaining Prime Minister, The Mole writes.

Read The Mole’s column in full

Poll breakthrough? Tories hit 37%

Posted at 10.30, Fri 3 April 2015

The latest YouGov poll puts the Conservatives two points ahead of Labour on 37 per cent – a highly significant figure because it’s the share of the vote the Tories won at the 2010 general election, Don Brind reports.

The post-TV debate polls give David Cameron and Ed Miliband a tie – but it was Nicola Sturgeon who was awarded the biggest score of the night.

Read Don Brind’s column in full

Meet the 'natural, funny' Ed Miliband

Posted at 11.54, Thurs 2 April 2015

Ed Miliband has been enjoying rare praise for his warm, matey performance in an interview with Geoff Lloyd at Absolute Radio.

Isabel Oakeshott, David Cameron’s biographer, tweeted: “I think this is a brilliant interview by Ed Miliband - natural, funny, human. Couple of LOLs. Well worth watching.”

The Labour leader allowed a joke against himself by repeating his line from his recent encounter with Jeremy Paxman: "Hell, yes”. He confessed to be being a Geek who as a boy got to level 20 on the computer game Manic Minor. He admitted to blubbing when he saw Pride, the movie about gays supporting the Welsh miners called. And he told how he was known as ‘Ted’ at university.

Guardian columnist Owen Jones tweeted: “Ha. This interview with Ed Miliband kind of makes you want to be his mate. Helped by the legendary Geoff Lloyd.”

Now the question is whether Miliband can came come across as a genuine, warm guy when there are six other party leaders in the room. That’s a big ask.

Watch the Absolute Radio interview here

Nick Clegg still risks losing his seat

Posted at 11.30, Thurs 2 April 2015

Labour’s plan to decapitate the Lib Dems, putting paid to any hopes of a second coalition with the Tories, look set to bear fruit, Don Brind writes.

New constituency polling by Lord Ashcroft puts the Labour candidate in Sheffield Hallam two points clear of Nick Clegg, which means there’s been a swing from the Lib Dems to Labour of 20 per cent since Clegg won the seat comfortably in 2010.

Labour believe that without Clegg, most surviving Lib Dem MPs would not want to enter another coalition with the Conservatives should the numbers add up on 8 May.

Read Don Brind’s column in full

More bosses sign up against Ed

Posted at 11.30, Thurs 2 April 2015

David Cameron goes into tonight’s seven-way TV debate with ammunition for two lines of attack against Labour leader Ed Miliband, The Mole writes.

The Daily Telegraph has found 17 more business leaders to join the 103 signatories to a letter arguingthat Miliband poses a threat to Britain's economic recovery.

And Ed Balls has opened a can of worms by refusing to rule out lowering the threshold at which tax is paid at 40p in the pound.

Read The Mole’s column in full

SNP 'really want the Tories to win'

Posted at 11.30, Thurs 2 April 2015

SNP leader Nicolas Sturgeon has been accused by Labour List blogger Sunny Hundal of "trash talking" Ed Miliband because she truly wants the Conservatives to win the election, not Labour, Jack Bremer writes.

“Who goes into serious negotiations by slagging off their potential partner as ‘weak and dishonest’?” asks Hundal. “The SNP aren’t serious about working with Labour – this is a charade so they can later walk away from any deal and blame Miliband for not offering everything.”

Read Jack Bremer's article in full

103 business chiefs warn against Ed

Posted at 11.20, Wed 1 April 2015

Ed Miliband was dealt a "blow" today as 103 business leaders warned that a Labour government would "threaten jobs and deter investment" in the UK. In a letter published in the Daily Telegraph, the senior business figures praised Chancellor George Osborne's decision to cut corporation tax and warned that a "change in course" would "put the recovery at risk".

It comes as Miliband is set to announce plans to effectively outlaw most zero-hour contracts, a policy that is predicted to "alarm" some employers. Labour says workers on zero-hour contracts should be entitled to convert their contracts into a regular job after just three months, rather than 12 months as the party has previously suggested.

Read The Week report in full

'Kidnap Obama' - Ukip man's last hurrah

Posted at 08.15, Wed 1 April 2015

The Ukip candidate for the north London seat of Hendon has been replaced after suggesting on Facebook that Israel should “kidnap” President Obama, The Guardian reports.

Jeremy Zeid was responding to the declassifying of US government documents about Israel’s secret nuclear programme.

“Once Obama is out of office the Israelis should move to extradite the bastard or ‘do an Eichmann’ on him and lock him up for leaking state secrets,” Zeid wrote.

(Adolf Eichmann was the Nazi war criminal captured in Argentina by Mossad agents and brought back to Israel to face trial. He was executed on 31 May 1962.)

“He was right to resign,” said a Ukip spokesman. “We are looking forward, not back.”

Meanwhile, Ukip leader Nigel Farage claims that if Britain leaves Europe annual net immigration will fall from 300,000 to just 30,000, the Daily Telegraph reports.

This will make communities feel happier, Farage says. “I sense over the last decade or more we are not at ease.”

Read The Guardian report in full

Read the Daily Telegraph report in full

Has Miliband got Cameron rattled?

Posted at 08.20, Wed 1 April 2015

David Cameron’s personal attacks on Ed Miliband show that the Prime Minister is rattled by the Labour leader, argues Marcus Roberts of the Fabian Society in an article for The Guardian.

And the Prime Minister’s constant references to the Labour leader could backfire. If Miliband were truly the weak creature he depicts, “Cameron wouldn’t need to resort to the scale and frequency of exaggerated attacks.”

Supporting the theory that Cameron has cause for concern is new polling data revealed in The Times by YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare.

He says that the response to four “tracker questions” shows Miliband is doing much better than he was seven weeks ago. For example, the question “Has he or has he not made it clear what he stands for?” got a minus 23 response in February. That has now moved to minus 9.

“Would he or would he not be up to the job of Prime Minister?” got a minus 36 response in February. Now it gets minus 10.

Miliband still trails Cameron on these questions, says Shakespeare, but without question the numbers represent “a big and meaningful shift”.

Read Marcus Roberts’s Guardian article in full

Labour pull ahead – just - in YouGov poll

Posted at 08.20, Wed 1 April 2015

Today’s YouGov poll for The Sun gives Labour a one-point lead over the Tories: Con 35 (u/c), Lab 36 (up 1), Lib Dems 7 (down 1), Ukip 12 (u/c), Greens 5 (u/c).

This puts it bang in line with current averages, Don Brind reports.

Labour’s poll average for March was 33.5 per cent, unchanged from February. The Tories’ 33.4 per cent showed a 1.1 per cent rise on the previous month.

Ukip on 14.1 per cent were 0.5 points down on February and a whole point down on January.