Election 2015: Nick Robinson, one man who’d welcome a second election

Budget bounce? Observer jumps the gun

Posted at 10.30, Mon 23 March 2015

Yesterday’s Observer heralded a “Budget bounce” for David Cameron and George Osborne after the paper’s weekly Opinium poll showed the Conservatives moving three points clear of Labour, Don Brind writes.

Trouble is, none of the other polls published over the weekend support the theory. YouGov, Populus and Survation also conducted their fieldwork after the Budget, and each of them showed Labour ahead. Two of them even have the Tories slipping.

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Read Don Brind’s article in full

PM: it’ll be as bad as France under Miliband

Posted at 10.30, Mon 23 March 2015

Ed Miliband will make Britain “as bad as France” if he’s allowed to become prime minister, David Cameron argued in an article for the Sunday Times.

“How would Labour deal with our deficit?” the PM asked. “Just how much more would they borrow? What taxes would they increase? Where do they want to take our economy?”

Then he recalled how, three years ago, Miliband “dashed over to Paris” and said he wanted to “follow” President Hollande with whom he was “in agreement” about seeking a “new way”.

Cameron: “He wanted us to follow the same path as the new French government. But where has that path led? Unemployment over the Channel is almost twice what it is in the UK. Our economy is growing seven times faster than France’s.

“Imagine if Miliband had been free to pursue his French dream: the fallout would be felt in catastrophic job losses, falling living standards, eye-watering debt and fast-diminishing hope in our future.”

Read David Cameron’s article in full

Ed Miliband: I know Labour can win

Posted at 10.30, Mon 23 March 2015

George Osborne made a mistake in not mentioning NHS funding in his Budget last week – and he will pay for it, according to Ed Miliband, in an article for the Sunday Mirror.

“At the end of his speech, I looked over at those Conservative MPs who usually spend their time shouting at me and saw people who feared he had not done enough to help them hang on to their seats on May 7,” Miliband wrote. “They knew the Chancellor had ignored the crisis in the NHS. He had shown he doesn’t understand what’s gone wrong with living standards.”

Miliband continued: “For all the graphs and statistics they have piled up at Downing Street to convince everyone how well they’ve done, Mr Osborne and Mr Cameron don’t understand what goes on on streets where working people live.”

Yet this election is all about the NHS and living standards, he said. “It is an election that, more than ever after this week’s Budget, I know we can win.”

Read Ed Miliband’s article in full

Afzal Amin: two sides of the story

Posted at 22.15, Sun 22 March 2015

Afzal Amin, the Tory candidate in Dudley North, has been suspended by his party after apparently being caught hatching a “cynical plot” in which members of the extremist EDL would threaten to protest against the building of a ‘mega-mosque’ – and then cancel it, making Amin look like the hero for negotiating peace.

Amin has told the BBC he is not guilty of any deception – and that the Mail on Sunday got the wrong end of the stick. He was working with the EDL in a bid to bring the community together, he claims, using “conflict resolution” methods he learned in the Army.

On Tuesday, the Tories will decide whether he can remain as their candidate in this tight marginal seat.

Read The Week’s briefing in full

TV debates: Cameron gets his way

Posted at 20.45, Sun 22 March 2015

The televised party leader debates have been finalised – and the electorate should not hold its breath.

The PM will take part, along with Ed Miliband, in a Channel 4/Sky special this coming Thursday – but it is being carefully choreographed so that the two men do not come face-to-face.

Both leaders will also appear – with Nick Clegg – in a Question Time special on 30 April. Again, each will appear separately to answer questions from the audience.

Read The Week’s briefing in full

SNP lead over Labour just gets stronger

Posted at 10.12, Fri 20 March 2015

The SNP’s lead over Labour looks rock-solid with two new Scottish polls showing a 20 per cent gap between the parties, Don Brind writes. Both were conducted by Survation, one for the Daily Record and the other for Scotland’s biggest union, Unite

The Daily Record poll, with changes month on month, shows: SNP 47 (up 2); Lab 26 (down 1); Con 16 (up 1); Lib Dems 4 (down 1); Others 7 (u/c).

The Unite poll also gives the Nationalists a two-point jump: SNP 47 (up 2); Lab 28 (up 1); Con 15 (down 1); Lib Dems 4 (down 1); Others 6 (down 1).

Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation's chief executive, said: “How this plays out in terms of seats remains to be seen as a range of untested SNP candidates attempt to convert these strong national polling figures into Westminster seat gains."

Guestimates range from 40 to 50 seats – either figure being enough to ensure Labour will be denied the chance to form a majority government, whether or not they can beat the Tories to largest party.

The latest national voting intention poll, the first conducted since Wednesday’s Budget, puts the Tories back in the lead by two points. The YouGov poll shows: Con 35 (up 2), Lab 33 (down 1), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 13 (down 1), Greens 6 (u/c). Given the margin of error, that still counts as level-pegging. Poll-watchers will be looking to see whether it's the start of a Tory trend.

‘Pork-barrel' charge against Osborne

Posted at 10.00, Fri 20 March 2015

George Osborne indulged in some serious pork-barrel politics on Wednesday in order to help Tory and Lib Dem MPs save marginal seats, according to Labour. The extent of it is only now becoming clear, The Mole writes.

Among the questionable funds available to local causes was £250,000 for research into the menace of urban seagulls – helpful to the candidate defending the marginal seat of Bath - and £56,000 towards upgrading the theatre in the marginal seat of Pendle.

Read The Mole's column in full

Ukip: all news is good news?

Posted at 10.00, Fri 20 March 2015

Will the dropping of Janice Atkinson as Ukip’s election candidate in Folkestone and Hythe as a result of expenses allegations do the Faragists any harm? Perhaps not.

Researchers at Loughborough University, who have monitored the reporting of every general election since 1992, found that Ukip’s principal problem for many years was “neglect rather than negativity”.

Since their success in the European elections of 2014, they’ve received markedly more media coverage – and not all of it positive. “But the increased intensity and negativity in coverage of Ukip need not necessarily work to the party’s detriment,” say Loughborough academics Richard Deacon and Dominic Wring in an article for The Conversation.

IFS pours cold water on Budget

Posted at 10.00, Fri 20 March 2015

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has questioned George Osborne’s headline-grabbing claim in Wednesday’s Budget that Britons are better off now than they they were in 2010, Don Brind writes.

Johnson says Osborne’s promise relies on a forecast, and has not happened yet. “There is no actual increase in the data we have so far.”

And in contrast to the triumphalist tone of Osborne’s Budget speech, Johnson said the pick-up in living standards was the slowest in modern history. It was no cause for celebration.

Read Don Brind’s column in full

Osborne 'deserves to be next Tory PM'

Posted at 10.25, Thurs 19 March 2015

George Osborne’s Budget showed why his party “is the only one remotely fit to care for our money and to govern this country” and if there was any justice in the world he would be the next leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister when David Cameron steps down, says Max Hastings in the Daily Mail.

“He is far more fit for the job than either of the two front-runners, Boris Johnson and Theresa May.”

But, says Hastings, “he faces an intractable, probably insoluble problem: the public does not much like him, any more than it likes head teachers, matrons or any authority figure who does a tough, unpopular job well.”

Because Osborne is deemed an unlikely election winner, the Tories are more likely to make “a panic-stricken dash for Boris Johnson” when the time comes.

“This is a great pity," says Hastings. "The Chancellor is a highly intelligent, forceful and principled man, who has served Britain well since 2010.”

Read Max Hastings's Daily Mail article in full