Election 2015: Nick Robinson, one man who’d welcome a second election

It's downhill from here for Ed, history tells us

Posted at 13.53, Tues 27 Jan 2015

Labour and the Tories are neck-and-neck at the 100-day mark – but Ed Miliband has reason to be very afraid, says the Daily Telegraph’s political commentator James Kirkup. That’s because history shows that in every election bar one since 1992, Labour ends up with an election result far worse than its poll rating 100 days out.

Kirkup bases his report on figures from Ipsos-MORI. The most spectacular example is 1992 when Labour, led by Neil Kinnock, lost to John Major having led in the polls for almost all the last 100 days of the campaign.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Even in 1997 – Tony Blair’s historic first victory – Labour’s election day lead of 13 points was nothing compared with the 25-point margin they enjoyed 100 days earlier according to the pollsters.

Why does it happen? Kirkup doesn’t know. It could be that the Tories are better at campaigning, he suggests, it could be that voters start to worry more about economic stability - and less about issues like the NHS - as polling day approaches, or it could be those “shy Tories” we keep hearing about. Whatever the reason, it happens.

Read James Kirkup’s article in full

15 Labour MPs 'go Greek' on austerity

Posted at 09.45, Tues 27 Jan 2015

Encouraged by the victory of the anti-austerity party Syriza in Greece, 15 left-wing Labour MPs issued a statement yesterday calling for Ed Miliband’s party to change direction and find an alternative to continued austerity and drastic public spending cuts.

As LabourList reports, they also want the railways renationalised and a return to collective bargaining and employment rights in the workplace.

“Jobs and growth are vitally needed rather than prolonged austerity as the best means both to cut the deficit fastest and to give hope to our people,” Michael Meacher, who co-ordinated the statement, told LabourList.

“An enhanced role for the trade unions is strongly needed both to promote economic partnership in our workplaces and to reverse the extreme inequality now so badly disfiguring our society.”

The Financial Times commentator Janan Ganesh believes this is just a taste of what is to come if Miliband wins the election.

“No recent Labour administration has cut spending by as much and for as long as he intends,” Ganesh writes. “Now imagine the dissent during five years of fiscal tightening. With each departmental cut and public-sector pay freeze, anger that currently broils at the wilder edges of the extra-parliamentary left will creep into the party proper.”

Read Janan Ganesh’s FT column in full

Read Meacher’s statement in full

TV debates: Cameron relents (with caveats)

Posted at 09.45, Tues 27 Jan 2015

David Cameron has finally relented, it seems, and will now take part in the televised leader debates as long as the Ulster Unionists can be included, writes The Mole. Asked on Radio 4’s Today programme whether he wanted the TV debates to go ahead, he responded: “Yes - I want that to happen.”

The PM has been dragging his heels to avoid boosting Nigel Farage with a free platform. But with seven or even eight leaders taking part, the Ukip leader will find it hard to makes such an impact. As The Guardian’s Nick Watt said on Sunday, the debates show every sign of being a “democratic bore-athon”.

As well as demanding that the Democratic Ulster Unionists be found a podium, Cameron said he wanted the debates to take place before the “short campaign” – the last four weeks before 7 May – begins. That’s because he believes "they take the life out of the campaign".

Read The Mole's column in full

Polls show Miliband likeliest PM

Posted at 09.45, Tues 27 Jan 2015

The Sun newspaper says it’s not sure who it will back in the 7 May election – but its ‘Sunifesto’ published today makes it very clear it will be the Tories, writes Don Brind.

The latest opinion polls show Cameron could use their help. With 100 days to go, five new polls put the Tories and Labour virtually neck-and-neck, making it unlikely the Conservatives will end up the largest party, let alone win a Commons majority, and Ed Miliband currently still more likely to be able to form the next government.

The Tories have a one-point lead with three polling companies - Survation for the Daily Mirror, ComRes for the Independent and YouGov for The Sun. Populus puts Labour ahead by one and Ashcroft shows a tie. Because of the vagaries of the electoral system, the Tories need to be at least nine points ahead to win a majority.

Read Don Brind’s column in full

Dave to help Alexis catch tax-dodgers

Posted at 09.45, Tues 27 Jan 2015

David Cameron and Alexis Tsipras have little in common, but there is one thing the British PM is prepared to help his new Greek counterpart with – and that’s hunting down Greek tax-dodgers, PoliticsHome is reporting.

Asked on the Today programme about the phone call he made to the victorious leader of the anti-austerity party Syriza, Cameron said: “I wanted to congratulate him on his election success and say we look forward to working together and hear a bit about his plans.

“While we are obviously not ideological soulmates, there was actually one offer I made where Britain has led the world in transparency about tax and companies paying their taxes properly and making sure wealthy individuals pay their taxes properly. That is something we can work with the new Greek government on. I think the offer was well-received.”

Read the PoliticsHome report in full

Ed Miliband looks good in London

Posted at 09.45, Tues 27 Jan 2015

Voters across the country may be unsure about Ed Miliband – but in the capital he’s looking good. A new YouGov poll for the Evening Standard puts Labour on 42 per cent in London – ten points ahead of the Conservatives on 32 per cent, prompting Labour’s campaign chief Sadiq Khan to say: “London holds the keys to Downing Street.”

For the Tories’ coalition partners, it’s even worse news: the Lib Dems have been pushed into fifth place on seven per cent: they’re behind Ukip on 10 per cent and the Greens on eight per cent.

Two high-profile Lib Demmers could lose their seats: Home Office minister Lynne Featherstone in Hornsey and Wood Green and party veteran Lib Dem Simon Hughes whose chances in Bermondsey and Old Southwark are too close to call, says the Standard.

Tories at risk in the capital include Nick de Bois in Enfield North, Mary Macleod in Brentford and Isleworth, and Gavin Barwell in Croydon Central.

Read the Evening Standard report in full

Is Miliband the Ted Heath de nos jours?

Posted at 11.45, Mon 26 Jan 2015

Ed Miliband’s advisors like to paint him as a man confident of winning this election, whatever his popularity ratings might say. But might they be wiser to promote him as the underdog – in short, as the Ted Heath of our generation?

“The British are supposed to love an underdog,” The Observer columnist Andrew Rawnsley wrote yesterday. “So there’s a potential campaign narrative available to the Labour leader as the plucky challenger battling against some formidable odds…

“The rise of the minor parties suggests that underdoggery is in fashion. And the way the economy has left people feeling beaten up means there are a lot of voters out there who might have instinctive sympathy with underdogs.”

Rawnsley recalls the general election of 18 June 1970. Labour’s Harold Wilson had been prime minister for six years. “A lot of people found the prime minister tricksy and questioned whether he really believed in anything, but he looked assured and presidential in the role. Not so unlike David Cameron then.”

Wilson’s challenger was the “widely mocked” Tory leader Ted Heath. “He had a poor public image. A lot of his party secretly – and not so secretly – reckoned that they were led by a loser. Some similarities with Ed Miliband then.”

And yet Heath, the underdog, won on the night. Oh, and by the way, the Liberals lost half their seats.

Read Andrew Rawnsley’s column in full

Bashir defection: Tory revenge turns sour

Posted at 11.45, Mon 26 Jan 2014

The defection of Ukip MEP Amjad Bashir to the Tories at the weekend was supposed to be a “delicious” moment of revenge for David Cameron following the desertion to the Faragistes last year of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless.

But Nigel Farage sought to cut short the celebrations by alleging that Bashir had actually been suspended by Ukip in the light of various allegations of impropriety and he was surprised the Conservatives were prepared to welcome him into their fold.

Tory party chairman Grant Shapps dismissed Farage’s claims as nonsense, designed only to hide the party’s embarrassment. While George Osborne, when asked this morning whether the Tories knew enough about their new recruit, answered: “I am certainly not aware of something I should be worried about.”

Will it stop there?

Read The Week’s report in full

Let Greece be a lesson, says Osborne

Posted at 09.30, Mon 26 Jan 2015

Voting Labour on 7 May is tantamount to backing the Greek anti-austerity party Syriza, victorious in yesterday's general election, George Osborne suggested on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras is promising “a panacea, false hope” he said – and so, he implied, is Ed Miliband, writes The Mole.

The Chancellor was talking ahead of a speech by David Cameron in which, despite accusations of “fiscal irresponsibility” from both Labour and the Lib Dems, he will reportedly commit the Tories to further tax cuts if they are re-elected. He is due to say he is "passionate" about tax cuts because "it's your money" and "a reward for years of sacrifice" under the Tories' austerity measures.

Read The Mole’s column in full

Women MPs – a record-breaking election

Posted at 09.30, Mon 26 Jan 2015

Whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband come out on top on 8 May, women will make a major breakthrough, writes Don Brind. An increase in the number of women MPs is “guaranteed” according to the political analyst Lewis Baston, who predicts a jump from the current 148 to at least 160 – meaning that one in four MPs will be a woman.

Who do we have to thank for this? First, the Conservatives are picking women to fight safe seats. Baston’s report for the political consultants Westbourne Communications shows that in 22 safe seats where the Tory MP is standing down only one was occupied by a woman, whereas nine of the new candidates are female.

Second, Labour already have all-women shortlists which mean that Ed Miliband is able to make half his top team women. Baston suggests that a large majority for Labour in May could mean as many as 200 of the 650 MPs in parliament are female.

Baston says the new intake on both sides have similar career paths. “The stereotypical Labour candidate is a 30-something woman who was the first of her family to go to university and has been director of a charity or a solicitor specialising in employment law. The stereotypical Tory has made their way in small business or the professions, often with a background in law or the City.”

How long before Greens are found out?

Posted at 09.30, Mon 26 Jan 2015

Can the Green Party hope to keep up its strong showing in the polls for much longer – or will they soon be found out, asks Nigel Horne. On the Sunday Politics yesterday, party leader Natalie Bennett's performance under questioning from Andrew Neil was described as "a car crash interview".

Asked about the decriminalising of al-Qaeda membership, about the party’s estimates of what a new wealth tax might bring in, about ordering arms manufacturers to make windmills instead of weapons, Bennett could only say: “I would urge viewers to look at our website.”

Recent polls show that up to 10 per cent of the electorate are considering voting Green on 7 May – and yet a new YouGov survey shows only one in four of them know what the party’s policies are. What will happen when the other three out of four discover the truth?

Read Nigel Horne’s column in full

Is Dan Jarvis the man to replace Miliband?

Posted at 12.26, Fri 23 Jan 2015

If Ed Miliband fails to take Labour to victory on 7 May, the party has the perfect candidate to replace him as party leader: not Andy Burnham (the union favourite), not Yvette Cooper (the Brownites’ choice) and not Chuka Umunna (the Blairites’ candidate).

No, the best man for the job, says the Daily Telegraph commentator James Kirkup, would be Dan Jarvis, Labour MP for Barnsley Central.

Jarvis, 42, is the antithesis of the career politician – and that, says Kirkup, is surely what Labour members will want after the Ed Miliband experiment. Jarvis came to Westminster in March 2011 after a heavy-duty 15 years in the Parachute Regiment including tours of Kosovo and Afghanistan. In short, he’s that rare thing – an Army officer who supports Labour.

In recent days, he’s used his powers of endurance to go on a “doorstep marathon” across England, campaigning for Labour in marginal “target” seats.

But the best reason for choosing him as leader is not that he can yomp the socks off fellow Labour pols – but that he would throw a spanner in the works of the Tory attack machine.

“Tories who speak of Mr Miliband with open contempt are notably respectful of Mr Jarvis,” says Kirkup. How on earth would Tory HQ deal with a Labour leader who served his country in two wars and who is now raising two children alone after losing his wife to cancer?

Read James Kirkup’s article in full

Ed should be more radical, says Hain

Posted at 09.54, Fri 23 Jan 2015

This makes a change: a former Labour Cabinet minister in the Blair government has told Ed Miliband he should be more radical in order to counter the threat of the Greens, who have been surging in the opinion polls in recent days.

Hain, known to an older audience as a formidable fighter against apartheid in South Africa before he moved to Britain and entered politics, has a list of ideas he feels Miliband should embrace, The Guardan reports.

He suggests a tax rate of 62 per cent on higher earners, a tax on financial transactions, an increased rate of Vat on luxury goods and – not a bad idea? - a “stamp duty” on football transfers.

In short, says Hain, Miliband should forget all about the recent attacks on his programme by Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson and go a lot further to break with New Labour.

Read The Guardian report in full

TV debate: has PM’s bluff been called?

Posted at 09.45, Fri 23 Jan 2015

In an effort to force David Cameron to join the televised leader debates before the general election, broadcasters have bowed to his demand that the Green leader, Natalie Bennett, be invited, writes The Mole.

But in seeking to call the Prime Minister’s bluff, have they shot themselves in the foot by lining up a TV debate with seven participants which is likely to make poor television and have voters turning off in their droves?

The Conservatives have yet to announce whether Cameron will now agree to take part. Will he find another excuse to get out of confronting Ukip leader Nigel Farage on live television and risk throwing away the “incumbent advantage” he enjoys through being Prime Minister?

Read The Mole’s column in full

Polls: Tories ‘way off election target’

Posted at 09.45, Fri 23 Jan 2015

Today’s YouGov poll shows the Tories on 31 per cent, two points behind Labour on 33 per cent. Why are they not doing better, given all the encouraging growth and unemployment figures and the personal attacks on Labour’s Ed Miliband?

Research of the polling averages over the past year shows the Tories have actually dropped by 0.5 per cent - from 32.3 per cent in January 2014 to 31.8 per cent now, writes Don Brind. Which means they are way off their target of winning a majority on 7 May.

Peter Kellner of YouGov believes the Tories will gain in the run-in to the election because incumbent government parties just do. But they’re leaving it awfully late – and, anyway, other pollsters are not so positive about the incumbency effect.

Read Don Brind’s column in full

PMQs a waste of time, says Miliband

Posted at 09.45, Fri 23 Jan 2015

Ed Miliband said yesterday that his countless exchanges with David Cameron at Prime Minister’s Questions had not added to the “sum of human knowledge” and that he wishes he could have the time back he’s wasted on Wednesday lunchtimes.

"Watching me and David Cameron shout at each other once a week on Prime Minister's Questions isn't very enlightening for anybody, let's be frank about it. It probably massively puts people off politics if they're watching it because they think: 'It's two blokes shouting at each other, what's that got to do with my life?'"

The Daily Telegraph, travelling with Miliband on a day trip to Northern Ireland during which he made the comments, called it “a bizarre throwaway comment” that is “likely to raise eyebrows”.

Why "bizarre"? The Telegraph is among those papers who report daily on the frustrations of voters fed up with the current political system: isn’t this exactly what they want to hear from our political leaders? An admission that old habits need to change?

Kim Kardashian enters the picture

Posted at 09.30, Thurs 22 Jan 2015

Given his rival Ed Miliband’s troubles with a bacon sandwich, David Cameron was bold when he agreed to answer popular culture questions yesterday during a visit to the urban music radio station, Capital Xtra.

He admitted to not understanding why everyone is interested in Kim Kardashian (who does?) and he probably got it right when he said he’d prefer to order lunch for a London summit meeting of fellow national leaders from Nandos rather that Gordon Ramsay.

The big test came when he was asked to choose between Jay-Z, Australian female rapper Iggy Azalea or Tinie Tempah for a new campaign song

As the Daily Telegraph reports, the PM responded: “The track I would like to have, but this really makes me sound so old, is Let’s Stick Together by Bryan Ferry because I think that’s the message for the election.” Hmmm – that sounded horribly prepared.

Read the Daily Telegraph report in full

Labour retake lead in YouGov poll

Posted at 09.30, Thurs 22 Jan 2015

Labour have retaken a one-point lead over the Conservatives, according to today’s YouGov poll for The Sun, jumping four points from yesterday, writes Don Brind. The latest YouGov figures show Labour on 34 (up four), Tories 33 (up one), Lib Dems six (down two), UKIP 14 (down one) and Greens eight (down two).

The changes are unremarkable save for the difference in reporting by The Sun. Yesterday, with YouGov putting Labour on 30 and the Greens on eight, the paper gave it the full tabloid treatment, reporting: “On another day of misery for Ed Miliband, support for his ailing party slumped to just 30 per cent in a YouGov poll.”

Today Labour’s recovery gets not a mention – just a tweet from a reader asking: “What, no big hysterical headline?”

But there’s discouraging news for Ed Miliband’s team from Scotland where hopes that the Nationalist surge might be subsiding have been dashed by the latest Ipsos-MORI poll for STV. It shows the SNP with a 28%per cent lead which could give them 55 of the 59 seats north of the border, leaving Labour with only four.

The Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times which showed a dip in the SNP's lead over Labour to 10 points now looks like a blip.

SNP-Labour coalition a step closer

Posted at 09.30, Thurs 22 Jan 2015

The possibility of the next government being run by Labour and the SNP in coalition came a step closer after Nicola Sturgeon announced that Scottish Nationalist MPs – and there could be as many as 55 of them after the election – will routinely vote on English-only matters at Westminster, writes The Mole.

Her move is designed to reinforce the SNP message that the party is willing to work with a minority Labour government, and to blunt Labour claims that a vote for the SNP in Scotland will only serve to return David Cameron to No 10.

Read The Mole’s column in full

Lib Dem peer Oakeshott pays to stop Clegg

Posted at 09.30, Thurs 22 Jan 2015

Ed Miliband still has some friends: a former Lib Dem peer, Lord Oakeshott, who believes his own party is “heading for disaster” under Nick Clegg, has handed out a total of £600,000 in donations to 30 Labour candidates and 15 left-of-centre Lib Dem candidates to spend on winning their seats on 7 May.

Oakeshott describes his philanthropic gesture as “doing his bit to save the country from a Tory government cringing to Ukip”.

According to The Guardian, Oakeshott’s donations “were given discreetly over the last two months but, due to be made public in the normal way by the Electoral Commission shortly, are also intended to encourage voters to think to vote tactically, and elect a reforming parliament with a ‘Labour-led government headed by Ed Miliband as prime minister’.”

Readers thinking “I know that name from somewhere” are recalling that is was Isabel Oakeshott, a former Sunday Times political journalist, who broke the story of Chris Huhne and his wife, Vicky Pryce, “swapping” driving penalty points and ending up in jail. Isabel, now working on a David Cameron biography, is Lord Oakeshott’s third cousin.

Read The Guardian report in full

Cameron knocks ‘shambolic’ Miliband

Posted at 14.00, Wed 21 Jan 2015

Not a great PMQs for Ed Miliband today, writes The Mole. The Prime Minister had the latst ONS figures to hand - unemployment down to its lowest in six years, wage growth finally advancing - with which to batter the Labour leader on the economy.

He also chose to exploit the memoir of the former Mayor of Doncaster, who as we reported here on Monday, told some pretty embarrassing stories in the Mail on Sunday about having the young Ed Miliband to stay at his family home back in 2005.

Cameron taunted Miliband with some of the claims made by Winter: "He couldn't open a door, he was bullied by schoolchildren, and set a carpet on fire - just imagine the shambles he would make of running the country."

The Mole reckons the PM will be charged by some with belittling Prime Minister's Questions, knowing as he did that Winter had an axe to grind after falling out with Labout five years ago. Either way, this election campaign just started to get dirty.

Read The Mole's column in full

Time for a Labour-Tory coalition?

Posted at 09.40, Wed 21 Jan 2015

A "grand coalition" of Labour and the Tories was the least popular choice of respondents asked a "favourite coalition" question in this week's ICM poll for The Guardian. But could that be because few voters consider such an alliance likely or even possible, asks Nigel Horne.

One commentator who believes a grand coalition is feasible - just - is Paul Waugh, editor of Politics Home. He says there is “a small band of people in both main parties” who are considering it as an option. What unites them, he says, “is an equal loathing of the Lib Dems, but also the SNP, Ukip and the Greens”.

The solution might well please the City. As the Financial Times reported earlier this week, the main worry among financiers is not so much who will win the election but that a period of uncertainty after 7 May will be damaging.

Read Nigel Horne's column in full

Economy: good and bad news for Labour

Posted at 09.30, Wed 21 Jan 2015

Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor Ed Balls have slumped to their lowest rating for managing the economy in the latest ICM poll for The Guardian – even though the survey puts Labour three points ahead of the Tories on voting intentions, writes Don Brind.

Just 15 per cent say they trust Miliband and Balls compared to 37 per cent who have faith in David Cameron and George Osborne. As The Guardian reports, the Tories hope “this will be decisive in May”. But will it?

The irony is that the more Chancellor George Osborne boasts that the economic outlook is improving, so the issue – defined by ICM as “jobs, prices, wages” – is slipping down the agenda for voters.

It came third with 14 per cent naming it their top priority (down from 17 per cent last autumn) behind immigration (down one point to 19 per cent) and way behind the NHS (up seven points on 31 per cent) - Ed Miliband’s chosen battleground in this election.

Read Don Brind's column in full

‘Guilty middle will win it for Tories’

Posted at 09.30, Wed 21 Jan 2015

Is David Cameron destined to keep the keys to Number Ten, not because of “shy Tories” who might be hiding their true intentions from the pollsters, but because of “guilty middle-class Labour supporters” who have come to realise that Ed Miliband’s party “hates aspiration and success” and who, on 7 May, will feel their only option is to vote Tory?

That’s the thinking of Daily Telegraph political columnist Dan Hodges. He believes the veteran Tory strategist Robert Hayward is “partly right” in his “shy Tory” theory - which Don Brind wrote about for The Week yesterday – but that there’s more to it than that.

“It is never articulated openly,” writes Hodges. “But at dinner parties, and at the school gates, the Guilty Middle have begun to speak in code. They are ‘surprised by Labour’. They are ‘disappointed by Labour’. They ‘don’t quite understand Labour at the moment’.

“And then, in the privacy of the polling booth, they will strike… Forget the disillusioned white van men. And the angry students. And the furious Kippers. Yes, they will have a say. But come May, it is the Guilty Middle that will have the final word.”

Read Dan Hodges’s Telegraph column in full

Ukip split over future of NHS

Posted at 09.30, Wed 21 Jan 2015

Tensions within Ukip became public last night when Louise Bours, the party’s health spokeswoman, said leader Nigel Farage was “entitled to his opinion” but that party members would reject his notion of funding the NHS on an American-style private insurance model.

As we reported yesterday, Farage brought the issue up with the BBC’s Nick Robinson in a radio documentary, saying “This is a debate we are going to have to return to.”

To which Ms Bours responded: “I am certain that if the party discuss it again, we will reject it again. The vast majority of Ukip members, the British public and I will always favour a state-funded NHS.”

As The Guardian reports, the difference of opinion within Ukip on the NHS is understood to reflect the views of Ukip’s first directly elected MP, Douglas Carswell, “who has been clear that he believes the NHS budget should go up and that his party should show an inclusive, internationalist attitude that stresses immigrants are not to blame for society’s woes”.

As The Week has reported before, should Farage fail to win his chosen seat of South Thanet on 7 May - which is very possible, given that it’s a tight three-way marginal - then he will be bound to hand over the party leadership to a sitting Ukip MP.

With Ukip’s fortunes currently on the slide – they are down a point in this week’s Ashcroft national poll, and down three points in the new ICM poll – Carswell might be the obvious candidate because he could be the only Ukip MP left standing.

Ukip sack policy chief for manifesto failing

Posted at 10.00,Tues 20 Jan 2015

Ukip have sacked their policy chief, Tim Aker, because he has failed to deliver the party’s election manifesto, due at the start of January.

According the The Times, “Suspicions among senior party figures emerged in recent weeks that Mr Aker was running behind schedule on completing a final draft.

“A senior Ukip insider said: ‘There was growing disquiet that none of us had seen hide nor hair on the policy front. It was especially annoying for candidates, who are banned from making any specific pledges before the manifesto is published. They don’t know what to tell voters on the doorstep.”

The news comes as Ukip continue to flatline in the polls – yesterday’s Ashcroft poll had them down a point at 15 per cent – and look unlikely to win anything like the number of MPs mooted last autumn.

Chris Patten, the former Tory party chairman, is among those who believe Ukip’s moment may have passed, telling the BBC that Nigel Farage "is probably a balloon which is deflating".

Ukip have called in their deputy chairwoman Suzanne Evans to pick up the pieces. She is under pressure to complete the manifesto before Ukip’s spring conference at the end of February.

Read the full report at The Times

What do the Greens stand for?

Posted at 13.45, Tues 20 Jan 2015

They are flying in the polls, their membership is surging, but what do the Greens stand for? More important, if they can come out of the election with more than their current tally of one MP, would either major party be willing to build a coalition with them?

Based on a new examination of their core priorities, the answer might be: “Not in a thousand years.”

Green targets include: zero growth – better still, negative growth; leaving Nato and turning military bases into nature reserves; a ‘Beyonce tax’ on superstar performers; free birth control (to prevent over-population); and forcing the BBC to balance entertainment shows like Strictly Come Dancing with prime-time educational programming.

Read The Week’s report in full

Mandelson attacks Ed’s ‘crude’ mansion tax

Posted at 09.50, Tues 20 Jan 2015

Another senior – and very comfortably off – Labour figure has attacked Ed Miliband’s plan to introduce a ‘mansion tax’ on houses valued at £2 million-plus. Lord Mandelson told Newsnight that Miliband won't win the election by "clobbering" the wealthy with a "crude, short-termist" solution.

As The Mole writes today, Mandelson may be one of the architects of New Labour but he is out of step with public opinion: 72 per cent of all voters support the mansion tax and among Labour voters support is up to 85 per cent compared to only eight per cent against.

Whether Miliband's team will be that bothered by Mandelson's attack is a moot point: they are likely to be more excited today by Nigel Farage's suggestion, made in a BBC radio interview, that the NHS may have to be replaced by a system of private insurance.

Labour supporters tempted by Ukip's anti-EU and immigration policies might run a mile from the Faragists if this is their leader's attitude to the NHS.

Read The Mole's column in full

‘Shy Tories’ give David Cameron hope

Posted at 09.50, Tues 20 Jan 2015

Can David Cameron rely on "shy Tories", missed by the opinion pollsters, to deliver him victory on 7 May? As our poll-watcher Don Brind writes, that the theory of a former Tory MP and respected election analyst Robert Hayward.

After analysing recent election results, Hayward is convinced that Green and Tory votes are "understated” by the pollsters and that Labour supporters are less likely to vote. It could be a repeat fog 1992 when John Major beat Neil Kinnock with those dubbed afterwards the "shy Tories". voters.

Read Don Brind's article in full

What does Obama know, asks Harman

Posted at 09.50, Tues 20 Jan 2015

Four days after Barack Obama welcomed David Cameron to Washington, praising his handling of the economy and saying what a good friend he was, it still hurts senior Labour figures. The US President “does not really know what is going on in this country”, Labour’s deputy leader, Harriet Harman, told LBC Radio yesterday.

“For Obama to say David Cameron is right and everything is fine, I think people will just disagree with President Obama, and think of their own experience,” the Daily Telegraph reports Harman saying. “People know their pay [has] stagnated, and costs have gone up.”

It has already been reported that Ed Balls found Obama’s warm words for Cameron’s austerity programme “extraordinary”.

Read the Daily Telegraph report in full

Blunt speaking: injured pride on election trail

Posted at 09.50, Tues 20 Jan 2015

Two nasty spats darkened the election campaign yesterday, writes Nigel Horne. Pop singer James Blunt reacted angrily to a comment by Labour’s culture spokesman Chris Bryant that the British arts scene should not be dominated by public school boys like Blunt and actor Eddie Redmayne.

“It is your populist, envy-based, vote-hunting ideas which make our country crap, far more than me and my shit songs, and my plummy accent,” ranted Old Harrovian Blunt.

Meanwhile, Chuka Umunna, shadow business secretary, walked out of a Sky News studio after Dermot Murnaghan accused him of not knowing what to think about Eric Pickles’s controversial letter to imams because he wasn’t sure of the party line.

In both cases, bloggers backed the Labour front-benchers against their adversaries.

Read Nigel Horne’s column in full

Greens surge to 11% in Ashcroft poll

Posted at 19.18, Mon 19 Jan 2015

Pollster Lord Ashcroft has come up with another shocker, writes Don Brind. Last Monday’s big surprise was a six per cent Tory lead over Labour which raised eyebrows among poll-watchers. This time his weekly national poll puts the Greens on 11 per cent - their highest ever score.

As far as the two big parties are concerned, Ashcroft is back in the pack with other pollsters showing Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck after last week's excitement.

The Tories are down five points at 29 per cent, with Labour unchanged on 28 per cent. Ukip are down one at 15 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up one at nine per cent

But it’s the three per cent jump in the Greens’ ranking that is most striking and Ashcroft speculates that it could be linked to the row over whether their leader Natalie Bennett should get a place in the TV debates.

As he says: “It will be interesting to see in the coming weeks whether they can sustain their share.”

It will also be interesting to see how the poll affects the arguments for the Greens’ involvement in the debates. It’s certainly ironic that it’s David Cameron who has championed Bennett’s cause and now sees her party surge and his slump.

As always, the poll comes with a health warning – don’t pay too much attention to one poll, look for the trend.

Ashcroft admits that last week’s poll with its apparently sudden jump in Tory fortunes was “an outlier – an occupational hazard in polling”. This week’s might be an outlier too - but Bennett and the Greens will make the most of it to press their case for a TV debate podium.

Did Miliband see the 2008 crash coming?

Posted at 09.05, Mon 19 Jan 2015

Ed Miliband and Ed Balls have flatly denied a claim that they wanted Gordon Brown to hold an early general election in 2007 because they were aware the British economy was about to collapse.

The claim is one of many “bombshell accusations” made by Martin Winter, a former Labour Mayor of Doncaster and one-time friend of Miliband, whose memoir is being serialised by the Mail on Sunday.

Winter also writes that the Labour leader behaved like a “bumbling oddball” when he stayed at the Winters’ home while preparing to win nomination as Labour candidate in Doncaster North in 2005.

The ex-mayor claims that Miliband accidentally set fire to a carpet in a bedroom he was using as an office (and then bought a £25 prayer mat to cover the damage), that he managed to lock himself in the house, nearly missing a meeting with Gordon Brown as a result, and that he was awkward and condescending with the Winters’ children.

But his most serious accusation is that Miliband confided in him in 2007 after Gordon Brown famously backed out of holding a snap election, saying: "Ed Balls was desperate for us to go now… The simple fact is the economy is going to fall off a cliff and this was our best chance of winning.

"The economy is going to get a hell of a lot worse over the next two or three years and we'll get the blame for it; so it was either going now and risk losing or wait and know that we're going to lose."

The Daily Telegraph reports that a spokesman for Miliband has dismissed Winter’s story as “tittle-tattle” and “complete nonsense”, saying: “No one had any sense of the scale of the global banking crisis which emerged in 2008.”

The claim has also been rubbished by Damian McBride, who was special advisor to Gordon Brown at the time. “In all the countless conversations about whether to call an election in 2007, not once did the prospects of the economy come up. Not once,” he said on Twitter.

A spokesman for Ed Balls has also dismissed Winter’s story. It was Balls who ordered Doncaster Council to bring in a new management team following the deaths of seven children in the area, which led to Winter resigning as mayor in March 2009.

As The Guardian reports, Labour insiders have pointed out that Winter was lambasted in the Mail on Sunday in 2009, when the paper described Doncaster as “the rotten borough they call the Haringey of the north”.

The Guardian says that Mail on Sunday executives are standing by the serialisation of Fallout: by Martin Winter, The Man Who Made Ed Miliband An MP. “It’s good stuff, entertaining,” said one – although he conceded it was “quite conceivable” readers may never have heard of Winter.

Inequality report puts pressure on Tories

Posted at 11.30, Mon 19 Jan 2015

Oxfam’s warning to the billionaires gathering in Davos that they hold too much of the world’s wealth is another nail in the coffin of Margaret Thatcher’s favourite dictum – that wealth will “trickle down” from the rich to the poor if you give the rich enough encouragement, writes The Mole.

“Oxfam isn’t exactly saying ‘Vote Labour’ – but its message puts pressure on the Tories to do more to level the playing-field, and can only give Ed Miliband encouragement as he argues that Tory-Lib-Dem coalition stands for the rich against the poor.”

President Obama will use his State of the Union address tomorrow to urge new taxes on America’s wealthy one per cent – enough to raise $320 billion extra over ten years. Of course, the Republicans will never let it happen while they control Congress – but it’s the thought that counts. How – if at all - will Obama’s ‘bro’ David Cameron respond?

Read The Mole’s column in full

Drop in SNP support gives Labour hope

Posted at 09.00, Mon 19 Jan 2015

Labour no longer face a wipeout in Scotland at the hands of the SNP, if a new Panelbase poll is to be believed. The Nationalists’ advantage over Labour is down to ten points. It still means Miliband could lose half his 41 Scottish seats – but that’s not nearly as bad as the loss of 37 seats projected at the end of October.

As The Week’s poll-watcher Don Brind writes today, this drop in support comes as Scots begin to worry about their economy under the “devo max” plan favoured by the Nationalists in the light of the huge drop in North Sea oil tax receipts.

As for the weekend’s national voting intention polls, ComRes and YouGov both give Labour a narrow lead over the Tories. An Opinium poll for The Observer giving Labour a five-point lead carries a health warning – it could be an anomaly.

Read Don Brind’s column in full

Labour fury at Cameron’s warm welcome in DC

Posted at 09.00, Mon 19 Jan 2015

Labour Party insiders were reportedly furious at President Obama’s “red carpet treatment” of David Cameron at the White House on Friday, according to the Sunday Times.

With the general election less than four months away, Obama appeared to break with international political etiquette when, in front of the world’s press, he described Cameron as “a great friend” and “one of my closest and most trusted partners in the world”.

He also appeared to back the Tories’ austerity programme when he was was asked whether Britain should “stick to the plan” and responded: “I would note that Great Britain and the United States are two economies that are standing out at a time when a lot of other countries are having problems. So we must be doing something right.”

Ed Balls – according to “a source familiar with the shadow chancellor’s thinking” – thought it was “extraordinary that Obama used that language”.

Others have asked why David Axelrod, Obama’s former campaign guru now employed by Ed Miliband on a reported £300,000 contract, had failed to stop it happening. One Labour frontbencher said: “I’m not quite sure why we’re paying Axelrod £300,000. We should ask for our money back.”

The theory is that it all goes back to August 2013 when Miliband refused to back US plans for airstrikes against the Syrian regime: that “cooled” relations between Miliband and the White House.

Labour cost-of-living mantra ‘still holds’

Posted at 09.00, Mon 19 Jan 2015

Have the cut in petrol prices and the overall fall in the inflation rate announced last week pulled the rug out from under Labour’s core argument – that however you measure the UK’s economic recovery, ordinary people are still suffering a cost-of-living crisis?

On the BBC’s Sunday Politics show, presenter Andrew Neil pushed Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman hard on the issue, arguing that with wages finally rising faster than prices, the strategy might no longer “have traction”.

Harman argued that nothing had really changed on the ground - and Neil’s panel of political journalists agreed with her.

Beth Rigby of the Financial Times felt the effects of falling prices would not “come through” in time for the election. Many people, she argued, had built up debt over the recent difficult years and would not “suddenly feel wealthier”.

Nick Watt of The Guardian and Janan Ganesh, also of the FT, agreed that it will take a good year for people to feel any improvements brought about by lower fuel prices. Labour, they suggested, is still able to argue that the Tories do not appear to understand what high prices and small or non-existent wages rises have meant to those who Harman has taken to calling – like her boss - the “everyday people”.

Iannucci calls for a Murray v Brand debate

Posted at 09.00, Mon 19 Jan 2015

The debate Armando Iannucci is looking forward to is one between Russell Brand and Al Murray. “The way things stand,” writes the creator of The Thick of It in an article for The Observer, “it looks more likely than a Cameron v Miliband debate. It also looks the more interesting.”

Murray has, of course, announced his intention to stand – in character as the Pub Landlord – in South Thanet, the Kent seat Nigel Farage is fighting for Ukip.

Iannucci writes: “A Brand/Murray smackdown would be hugely serious and relevant since it would go to the heart of what ails the UK’s democratic condition today: whether voting in elections is worth bothering with at all.”

Russell Brand, Iannucci reminds us, has been busy arguing that the party system is so rotten that real change can only be achieved by refusing to vote.

Murray, on the other, by embracing the political process, is in effect saying that voting counts “because it can take real power away from those whom you fear or mistrust”.

Iannucci concludes: “Surely the two of them should come together and have a debate: it would be the biggest political locking of horns since Gladstone and Disraeli.”

Obama heaps praise on PM (as planned)

Posted at 19.25, Fri 16 Jan 2015

David Cameron's trip to Washington was worth the jetlag. He got exactly what he wanted from meeting President Obama at the White House – a resounding clap on the back from the leader of the free world (the sort of leader-to-leader moment Ed Miliband can only dream of) and the photos to prove it.

It wasn't quite George and Amal Clooney on the Golden Globes red carpet, but it wasn't bad.

Joking about journalists getting into a "tizzy" over Cameron's recent admission that the he'd taken to addressing the British PM as "Bro", Obama told a White House press conference today: "Put simply, David is a great friend. He is one of my closest and most trusted partners in the world."

It gets better (if you're on the Tory election team)… "On many of the most pressing challenges that we face," Obama continued, "we see the world the same way. Great Britain is our indispensable partner, and David has been personally an outstanding partner - and I thank you for your friendship."

The Daily Telegraph reports that the "warm words will delight Conservative strategists". As The Mole wrote earlier this week, the trip to Washington was "the sort of top-drawer PR opportunity only a serving Prime Minister can arrange. And given that Cameron needs to do everything he can to reinforce the lead he has over Ed Miliband in leadership polls - when his party is behind in voting intention polls - the timing is impeccable."

The White House meeting wasn't all about back-slapping: the pair also got some work done, announcing a new joint approach to countering violent extremism in the wake of the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris.

"Britain and America both face threats to our national security from people who hate what our countries stand for and are determined to do us harm," Cameron told the world's press – once the photos were in the bag.

Osborne 'to back Boris over Theresa May'

Posted at 10.20, Fri 16 Jan 2015

George Osborne’s star might be rising on the world stage - IMF chief Christine Lagarde told a meeting a Washington yesterday that Britain’s economic performance was providing “eloquent and convincing” leadership for the rest of the EU – but his hopes of becoming the next Tory leader have apparently been dashed, writes The Mole.

Osborne was thought to be running hard for the leadership, undergoing a regrooming exercise and slimming down dramatically, ready to take over when David Cameron stands down – either in May because the Tories lose the election, or in 2017 because he loses interest once the EU referendum is out of the way.

But Sam Coates of The Times reports today that Tory MPs have made it clear they do not see Osborne as a contender: he is viewed as too distant and cliquey, preferring to surround himself with members of his inner circle rather than engage with the wider party.

As a result says Coates, Osborne is to make a spectacular U-turn and back Boris Johnson in a bid to stop Theresa May who is unpopular with Cameron’s inner circle, Osborne included.

Coates’s article comes hot on the heels of a Daily Telegraph column in which Peter Oborne said the Chancellor had “abandoned all realistic prospect of becoming Tory leader, not just now but ever”.

Oborne claims the Chancellor’s decision comes as a result of terrible feedback from a series of dinners held by Tory chief whip Michael Gove to gauge support among Conservative MPs.

“The more Tory MPs that Michael Gove canvassed, the worse it got,” wrote Oborne. “Many Tories admire Mr Osborne. Very few think that he is a plausible party leader.”

Now, says Oborne, the Chancellor has acted on Gove’s advice “and signalled that he is ready to join Boris Johnson’s team. He brings with him Tory central office, the whips, and the gruesome inner circle that surrounds the Prime Minister.”

If it’s true, it vastly increases the London Mayor’s chances of leading his party. No wonder he was on such Churchillian form at the Mansion House last night – looking beefier than ever, a new pair of specs balanced on the end of his nose, as he boasted – and joked - of London’s fortunes.

German invasion? Just joking, says Boris

Posted at 10.20, Fri 16 Jan 2015

Among the many boasts made about the capital by London Mayor Boris Johnson during last night’s Mansion House speech was an announcement that London is now the fourth biggest French city in the world, with between 300,000 and 400,000 ressortissants from France living in the capital.

“Bigger than Nantes, bigger than Strasbourg itself,” Boris exclaimed. “Any bigger and we will have to worry about the possibility of a German invasion… THAT’S A JOKE! That’s a joke! For the benefit of all international diplomats here tonight - That’s a joke!”

See the Mayor’s speech at YouTube

Miliband hunts missing student voters

Posted at 10.20, Fri 16 Jan 2015

Labour leader Ed Miliband is today launching a drive to get around a million people – many of them students - registered to vote in time for the general election on 7 May, writes Don Brind.

They have fallen off the radar since a new system of individual registration was introduced last June to replace the old system, under which the head of the household was responsible for registering everyone else who lived at the address.

Four out of five voters are unaffected by the change – which was brought in mainly to prevent fraud - because their details have been automatically transferred across from the old register.

But the automatic transfer only works for those who have not moved home – and changing addresses is common among students and young people generally.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg is the minister responsible for getting local authorities to maximize registration. But Miliband says Clegg hasn’t done enough and he will launch his voter registration drive in Clegg’s constituency, Sheffield Hallam, home to thousands of students.

The missing million are important to Labour because, when it comes to students, the party enjoys a two-to-one advantage over the Conservatives according to a YouGov poll last year. Many defected from the Lib Dems because of Clegg’s notorious U-turn over tuition fees.

Hague risks mansion tax with £2.5m pile

Posted at 10.20, Fri 16 Jan 2015

Laying himself open to paying an annual ‘mansion tax’ if Labour win the election, William Hague has shelled out £2.5 million for Cyfronydd Hall, a ten-bedroom pile in the Welsh Marshes.

The former Foreign Secretary is giving up his Richmond seat in Yorkshire at the election and plans to write more books following the success of two political biographies - of William Pitt the Younger and William Wilberforce. He says he has chosen his new home because it is “an ideal place" to write.

It’s pretty ideal for all sorts of things if you don’t have to get to the Palace of Westminster on a daily basis: set in 13 acres, it features a large orangery, a swimming pool and a fitness suite, according to the Daily Telegraph.

And the really good news is that he and his Welsh wife Ffion will have it all to themselves. The Hagues got a taste for comfortable country living when, as Foreign Secretary, he was given the keys to the grace-and-favour house, Chevening in Kent. The only downside: they had to share it with the Cleggs.

Read the Daily Telegraph article in full

Beware Greeks voting on Sunday week

Posted at 10.20, Fri 16 Jan 2015

There are 111 days to go until the general election – but there are only nine days to go before Greece goes to the polls. And The Spectator's political editor, James Forsyth, believes that whatever happens there could have a profound effect on our election.

"The polls from Athens are being studied by every politico from the Prime Minister down," he writes. "How Greece votes on 25 January could determine the result of our election."

That's because there's a real chance the radical left anti-austerity party Syriza, led by 40-year-old Alexis Tsipras, will triumph.

Syriza does not want Greece to leave the euro, Forsyth explains, but it does want the "fiscal waterboarding" to stop. "Tsipras wants a restructuring of Greece’s debts and an end to the most aggressive cuts."

The powers-that-be - in short, Germany – are determined not to change the terms of the Greek bailout arrangement and will be prepared to let Greece go. "There is confidence," argues Forsyth, "possibly misplaced, that the rest of the eurozone’s banking system would be able to cope with ‘Grexit’."

All of which points to economic uncertainly growing in Europe just as Britiain goes to the polls. "There would again be talk of sovereign debt defaults, bank runs and the like. The result would be to push the economy up the political agenda and to give more credence to warnings about the dangers of the government borrowing even more money. Both of these things would be to the Tories’ benefit."

Read James Forsyth's article in full

Green membership tops Ukip's

Posted at 12.54, Thurs 15 Jan 2015

It seems the Greens have an even better argument to be included in the televised leader debates than we realised yesterday.

While David Cameron and Ed Miliband were trading “chicken” insults at Prime Minister’s Questions, Green Party membership was rising by the minute – to the point where, by last night, it had overtaken that of Ukip.

The membership figures have been audited by Adam Ramsay of OurKingdom, who reported yesterday morning that membership had more than doubled since September and that "at the current rate of growth, the Greens will overtake Ukip within a week, and be ahead of the Lib Dems before polling day".

Ramsay underestimated the effect of the press coverage of the Greens’ exclusion from the election debates and Cameron’s spurious insistence that, without them, he would not appear. Around 2,000 people joined the Greens in the course of the day, taking the party’s total membership to 43,829 – nearly 2,000 ahead of Ukip’s membership which, by its own latest estimation, stands at 41,943.

As the New Statesman reports, the Lib Dems’ membership is well down on its 2010 peak of 65,000 – standing at 44,576. Hence the Greens’ hopes of overtaking them by 7 May.

Will this carry any weight with the broadcasters as they consider pleas to include Green leader Natalie Bennett in one of the pre-election debates? Watch this space.

PS: If you want to know what the big boys’ membership numbers are – well, they’re not that impressive considering the years they’ve been around: Labour has 190,000 members and the Tories are just short of 150,000.

Can Al Murray stop Farage? Possibly

Posted at 09.40, Thurs 15 Jan 2015

Could Al Murray help stop Nigel Farage entering Parliament at the general election? The comedian, known for his TV character the Pub Landlord, has announced his intention to stand – in character, as the landlord - for the so-called Free United Kingdom Party against the Ukip leader in the Kent seat of South Thanet.

Murray's manifesto includes pledges “to leave Europe by 2025 and the edge of the Solar System by 2050”, to put Boris Johnson on an island (“he keeps saying that’s what he wants”), and to re-introduce National Service – “but only for people who don’t want to do it”. The larky list goes on.

The question is – why? Celebrity candidates normally stand against their opposites, and with serious intent: think Martin Bell, the white-suited BBC reporter, who took on and beat Neil Hamilton in Tatton in 1997, or consumer champion Esther Rantzen who stood as an anti-sleaze independent in Luton South in 2010, the seat previously occupied by expenses fiddler Margaret Moran. (Rantzen failed to hit the five per cent mark and lost her deposit.)

But Murray is standing as a beer-swilling, Little Englander against, well - his doppelganger. (The fact that both men are total phoneys is not lost on commentators: Farage the former City stockbroker, Murray the colonel’s son, both of them public school educated.)

Three theories:

He’s a comedian after all and he’s doing it for a laugh just as fellow comic Simon Brodkin - known for his character Lee Nelson – did when he stood in the South Shields by-election in 2013 following David Miliband's departure for America. (Brodkin withdrew later the same day)…

He’s angry with Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg for name-checking him without his permission in his party conference speech in October and hopes to embarrass the Lib Dems by beating them into fifth place on South Thanet.

He hates Farage and Ukip and everything they stand for and hopes to confuse enough right-wing voters into putting a cross against the FUKP candidate instead of the UKIP candidate…

If that’s the case, Murray's candidature could have a serious impact – because all indications are that it will be a close-run thing. South Thanet is a three-way marginal with opinion polls showing Ukip, the Tories and Labour all leading at one point in the past year.

“The presence of Murray on the ballot could have a huge impact if only to take away a few hundred votes,” says Mike Smithson at Political Betting.

“Murray’s candidacy is sure to disrupt Farage’s efforts as well as confuse voters,” says Sabastian Payne at The Spectator. “Ukip lost thousands of votes to similarly named parties in the last European elections and FUKP may do the same in South Thanet.”

For the moment, Farage is trying to laugh off the threat, saying: “Finally, a serious opponent in South Thanet.” But it could prove a turning point in his political career. If he loses the seat, and other Ukip candidates make it to the Commons, there will be pressure on Farage to hand over the party leadership to an actual MP.

See Al Murray’s campaign launch at YouTube

Archbishops bash ‘evil’ inequality

Posted at 09.30, Thurs 15 Jan 2015

The Archbishops of Canterbury and York have risked infuriating Tory leaders with a blistering attack on the coalition government for abandoning Britain’s poorest people while allowing the rich to get richer, writes The Mole. They question David Cameron’s mantra “We're all in this together” and condemn inequality as “evil”.

The attack comes in a volume of essays seen ahead of publication by the Daily Telegraph. Justin Welby of Canterbury and John Sentamu of York say the Christian values of solidarity and selflessness have been discarded in favour of “every person for themselves” with “rampant consumerism and individualism” dominating politics since the 1980s.

The Church of England has strayed a long way from the days when it was described as “the Tory Party at prayer” but the attack will anger many Tories because it undermines the central plank of their election strategy - that the economy is working again.

Read The Mole's report in full

Last word: why Cameron fears debate

Posted at 09.30, Thurs 15 Jan 2015

Can anyone explain why David Cameron is so set against taking part in the televised leader debates this April? Daniel Finkelstein, Tory grandee and Times columnist, has laid out the Prime Minister’s position as well as anyone.

It all goes back to 2010 when, “sometime early on in the preparation for the debates, it began to dawn on the Tory team that they might have made a mistake by agreeing to have them. They were right to think that Gordon Brown couldn’t recover and that the debates would emphasise this. But they had forgotten Nick Clegg."

Says Finkelstein: "The outsider had all the best lines. It was almost impossible to hold him to account, and attacking him would seem absurd. Yet he could casually lob in things like 'There the two of you go again' and emerge as the people’s champion against the Westminster insiders.

"Even without taking into account his considerable skill at exploiting the opportunity he was given, the very structure gave Mr Clegg an advantage that could not be overcome."

Finkelstein believes the same thing will happen if Cameron agrees to a debate which includes the Ukip leader. "Nigel Farage would win it. He would be able to do what Nick Clegg did in 2010, attacking the insiders on behalf of the viewers without being held to account himself.

“Why on earth would Mr Cameron want to agree to allow that to happen? When he knows, in advance, what the outcome would be?”

Read Daniel Finkelstein’s article in full

Green leader calls Cameron's bluff

Posted at 13.45, Wed 14 Jan 2015

Natalie Bennett, leader of the Green Party, has offered a simple solution to the current impasse regarding the pre-election televised leaders' debates which David Cameron is currently refusing to join unless the Greens are invited, writes Nigel Horne.

Bennett has written to Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage today, urging them to tell the broadcasters that they are happy for her party to be included. "It would be hard for the Prime Minister to raise any new concerns, and this therefore gives the best chance of ensuring that the proposed leaders' debates can go ahead," she wrote.

Her letter to the three men, delivered this morning, follows their individual letters to Cameron saying his attempt to avoid the debates is unacceptable.

Bennett is not only putting the three leaders on the spot – she's calling Cameron's bluff. As The Mole wrote this morning, “It’s hardly a secret that, on the advice of his election strategist Lynton Crosby, he [Cameron] is trying to avoid debating with Farage on Europe and immigration. “

The Green Party leader concludes her letter: "I hope you will agree that the presence of the Greens in one of the three debates will also enrich the process by drawing on a wider range of views about the future of our country, and also appeal to a wider audience – particularly amongst young people."

Whichever way you look at it, Bennett appears to have right on her side.

If you judge the issue by party popularity, then recent opinion polls show the Greens regularly equalling - and sometimes even beating - the Lib Dems. And no one is suggesting Nick Clegg should not be there because of his party's dwindling fortunes since going into coalition with the Tories.

If you go by the number of MPs, the Greens, it is true, have only one (Bennett herself) while Ukip have two. But current projections by the experts at Electoral Calculus suggest Ukip are likely to end up with only one MP on 7 May if they don't climb from their current plateau of 16 per cent.

If that projection proves accurate, the sole Ukip MP is likely to be Douglas Carswell, the former Tory who won the Clacton by-election in October and is widely expected to hold on to the seat. Mark Reckless, the second Tory defector, who won Rochester and Strood in November, is considered far less likely to survive a general election campaign, while Nigel Farage himself has a mountain to climb if he is to win his chosen seat – South Thanet - from the Tories.

Of course, Bennett's simple solution to this conundrum suggests that if the Greens were to run the country, all such dilemmas might be solved just as easily – in which case she surely deserves her spot on the debating platform.