Lib Dems on the road to ruin
Posted at 09.45, Fri 13 Feb 2015
According to a ‘nowcast’ (see definition below) by academics at the British Election Study, it could reduce the party to a single seat on 7 May.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
That’s probably unrealistic– it takes no account of public allegiance to individual MPs, for instance – but on these figures there is very little chance the Lib Dems will save more than half of their current 57 seats, if that.
Ian Jones at UKgeneralelection.com has a useful chart showing the swing the Tories, Labour, the SNP and even the Greens (in one case) would need in each Lib Dem seat. Jones says Clegg and Co's best chance of survival is to treat the general election as 57 separate by-elections.
Definition: A ‘nowcast’ - as opposed to a forecast - assumes an election right now. BES looks at polls based on standard voting intention rather than the “thinking of your own constituency” method preferred by Ashcroft and other pollsters.
-
Critics’ choice: Watering holes for gourmandsFeature An endless selection of Mexican spirits, a Dublin-inspired bar, and an upscale Baltimore pub
-
Argentinian beef is at the center of American farmers’ woesThe Explainer ‘It feels like a slap in the face to rural America,’ said one farmer
-
‘Businesses that lose money and are uncompetitive won’t survive’Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Five takeaways from Plaid Cymru’s historic Caerphilly by-election winThe Explainer The ‘big beasts’ were ‘humbled’ but there was disappointment for second-placed Reform too
-
Taking the low road: why the SNP is still standing strongTalking Point Party is on track for a fifth consecutive victory in May’s Holyrood election, despite controversies and plummeting support
-
The end of ‘golden ticket’ asylum rightsThe Explainer Refugees lose automatic right to bring family over and must ‘earn’ indefinite right to remain
-
Does Reform have a Russia problem?Talking Point Nigel Farage is ‘in bed with Putin’, claims Rachel Reeves, after party’s former leader in Wales pleaded guilty to taking bribes from the Kremlin
-
The Liberal Democrats: on the march?Talking Point After winning their highest number of seats in 2024, can the Lib Dems marry ‘stunts’ with a ‘more focused electoral strategy’?
-
Is Britain turning into ‘Trump’s America’?Today’s Big Question Direction of UK politics reflects influence and funding from across the pond
-
Behind the ‘Boriswave’: Farage plans to scrap indefinite leave to remainThe Explainer The problem of the post-Brexit immigration surge – and Reform’s radical solution
-
Nicola Sturgeon's memoir: making the personal politicalTalking Point Former Scottish first minister attempts to set record straight in 'Frankly' but does she leave more questions than answers?
