Jeremy Corbyn is a 'disaster', says Stephen Hawking

Should Jeremy Corbyn drop Stop the War?

11 December

Jeremy Corbyn is under growing pressure to disown the Stop the War Coalition – starting by not attending the group's Christmas party tonight. But the Labour leader remains defiant and yesterday pledged not to turn his back on the organisation, which he called "my friends for 30 years".

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A Christmas dinner. What's all the fuss?

Stop the War has faced severe criticism in the weeks since the Paris attacks. It started with a post on the group's website that said France had "reaped the whirlwind of Western support" for extremist violence in the Middle East. The article, which was subsequently removed, contributed to the resignation of the Green MP Caroline Lucas as a Stop the War patron.

A week later another piece was published that said the terrorists behind the attack were driven by a "spirit of internationalism and solidarity" akin to those who fought in the Spanish Civil War. It was also removed.

What does that have to do with Jeremy Corbyn?

Before becoming Labour leader in September, Corbyn chaired Stop the War for four years. At tonight's event he is formally expected to hand over the chairmanship of the organisation but he remains a personal supporter of the group, says The Independent.

What's wrong with that?

Critics argue that a potential future prime minister should not associate himself with a campaign group that has expressed such views. Some commentators say that the resignation of Green MP Caroline Lucas appeared to support that position. Now a range of former shadow cabinet ministers including Tristram Hunt, Caroline Flint and Emma Reynolds have also called for Corbyn to distance himself from the organisation. The human rights campaigner Peter Tatchell said yesterday that Stop the War's politics were "driven by their opposition to US imperialism". He told The Independent: "This sometimes means they will ignore the horrendous crimes of despotic anti-American regimes like Russia and Iran."

What does Corbyn do now?

Sources close to Corbyn insist he will attend the event. "He said he would hand over the chair properly and he is keeping his word," a source told The Guardian. Asked by the BBC if he would still be going to the event, Corbyn said: "I'll attend all the things on my diary."

Angela Eagle outshines Jeremy Corbyn during her PMQs debut

10 December

Angela Eagle has won widespread praise from pundits for her performance during this week's prime minister's questions.

The shadow business secretary went head-to head-to-head with George Osborne yesterday, while David Cameron was away in Poland continuing his EU renegotiation tour.

As she stepped up for her debut at the despatch box, commentators were quick to point out that Eagle received a noticeably bigger cheer from Labour MPs than Jeremy Corbyn typically does.

"It's nice to get such a warm welcome," she told the Commons.

Eagle quickly went on the offensive, attacking Cameron for "jetting all over the place" on his "seemingly endless European tour," adding wryly: "Can I ask the chancellor - How's it all going?"

A not-so-subtle jibe at Corbyn's questioning style followed, with Eagle suggesting that she had received an email from "Donald from Brussels", warning of the "destabilising" effect of the EU referendum.

Osborne and Eagle went on to trade quotes from Tony Blair; with the chancellor citing the former PM's warning that Labour had become a "tragedy" under Corbyn.

Eagle fired back with her own line, quoting Blair's 1996 pre-election conference speech.

"Just mouth the words 'five more Tory years' and you feel your senses and reason repulsed by what they have done to our country," she said to loud cheers from the backbenches.

The verdict from the pundits

"Angela Eagle made Labour look united and the Tories look divided – a bittersweet little reminder that too often in past weeks, the opposite has been true," says The Guardian's Gaby Hinsliff. "One wonders quite how Jeremy Corbyn will have felt, watching that."

The Daily Telegraph's Asa Bennet argues that the Labour leader was the "real loser" of yesterday's session.

"[He] was left in the shade by his deputy, who showed MPs what they have been missing at the despatch box."

Many commentators praised Eagle's quick wit, and lauded both deputies for bringing some entertainment to the Commons.

"Methinks the Eagle Osborne PMQs much more engaging than rather dull fare we've got used to nowadays with Cameron and Corbyn," tweeted the BBC's assistant political editor Norman Smith.

Overall, the debate showed that not everyone has what it takes to command the Commons, argues The Independent's John Rentoul. "[Tony] Benn and Eagle, surprisingly, can. Corbyn and Osborne can't. It is not everything in politics, but it is something."

Tony Blair: Labour has become a 'tragedy' under Corbyn

09 December

Tony Blair has launched a public attack on Jeremy Corbyn, claiming that the Labour Party has descended into a "fringe protest movement" under his leadership.

Writing in the Spectator, the former prime minister said the party had become a "tragedy" and that it risked "not asking the right questions, never mind failing to get the right answers".

It is the first time the former Labour leader has publicly waded into the debate about the state of his party since Corbyn was elected leader in September.

"[Those who] support the notion of the Labour Party as a party aspiring to govern, rather than as a fringe protest movement agree on the tragedy of the Labour Party's current position," Blair wrote.

He also condemned those in the party he said were guilty of "boasting of our values as a way of avoiding the hard thinking the changing world insists upon".

Despite calls for unity from many within Labour, Blair appears to be in "no mood to reach an accommodation with the Corbynistas", says The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow.

"Although [his article] does not mention Corbyn by name, or even refer directly to current developments in the party, it does include withering criticism of what is happening to Labour under the current leadership," he says, adding: "None of this is especially surprising, of course."

Blair also uses the 1,800 word article, titled "In defence of Blairism, by Tony Blair", to defend his own record as leader, insisting that his party had a clear "moral purpose" but was also pragmatic.

On foreign policy, Blair defends his attempt to fight Islamist extremism and ally with the United States. He concludes: "Of course we made mistakes, but we were a radical reforming Government."

Corbyn's office has yet to comment on the article.

Jeremy Corbyn rejects calls to pull out of Stop the War event

07 December

Jeremy Corbyn has dismissed calls to withdraw from an event organised by the Stop the War coalition. The calls came as bullying allegations were levelled at the organisation.

Former shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt was among those urging the Labour leader to cancel plans to attend the anti-war group's Christmas fundraising dinner next week.

"I don't think he should go," the Labour MP told the BBC's Andrew Marr. "I think they're a really disreputable organisation and I would hope Jeremy would step back and not go to their fundraiser."

He cited "pretty ugly" comments directed towards shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn, who spoke out in favour of bombing Syria during last week's Commons vote.

But Corbyn defended his links with the coalition, where he served as chairman before being elected Labour leader, calling it a "vital democratic campaign".

His office said: "Jeremy Corbyn rejects any form of abuse in politics from any quarter."

"But he will not accept attempts to portray campaigning, lobbying and protest as somehow beyond the pale. In fact, it's at the heart of democracy."

Stop the War rejected what it called an "unfounded and unjustified attack" from Hunt and dismissed claims that it picketed Labour party offices or condoned any bullying or threats.

"I guess Hunt is making these criticisms to confuse the issue and try to minimise what is clearly a growing anti-war opinion in this country," the group's Lindsey German told The Independent.

Meanwhile, Corbyn's allies have denied claims that a "revenge reshuffle" is on the cards after last week's Syria vote saw 66 Labour MPs defy their leader.

The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, rejected the suggestion of recriminations, "claiming the party is thriving through open expression of opposing views", says The Guardian.

Jeremy Corbyn hails Oldham result as 'vote of confidence' in Labour

4 December

Jeremy Corbyn passed his first electoral test as leader this morning as Labour held the Oldham West and Royton seat with an increased share of the vote.

"The result will come as a huge relief to Mr Corbyn," says The Times, "who has endured a torrid week after his party was split over airstrikes in Syria."

The by-election, called after the death of long-serving Labour ex-minister Michael Meacher earlier this year, was seen by some as the first public verdict Labour's new leadership.

The seat was won by Jim McMahon, the Oldham council leader, with 17,209 votes. Ukip's John Bickley, who had been expected to run Labour close, came a distant second, with 6,487 votes.

Corbyn hailed the result as a "vote of confidence" in Labour. "By-elections can be difficult for the party holding the seat, and turnouts are often low," he said.

He added: "But this first electoral test in the new parliament has made clear Labour is the real alternative for Britain."

Nigel Farage, however, described the result as "perverse" and said he had evidence from "an impeccable source" that the postal voting was "bent".

"Serious questions need to be asked," the Ukip leader added.

The election came hard on the heels of Wednesday night's vote to extend air strikes into Syria, which had divided the Labour party.

Some of the 66 Labour MPs who voted in favour of military action have reported bullying and abuse online, including being sent threatening messages and graphic photographs of dead children.

Yesterday, the Labour leader and his deputy, Tom Watson, warned that the party would not accept such behaviour.

In an email to Labour members, they said they backed the right to "protest and lobby" and said MPs had to be open to hearing the views of their constituents.

"But, as we have both said many times, abuse and intimidation have no place in politics," they added. "And the party as a whole will not accept such behaviour, from whatever quarter it comes."

The Stop the War campaign, which used to be chaired by Corbyn, said it condemned "the whining complaints from those MPs who apparently do not like being lobbied."

"If an MP is not robust enough to withstand emails and tweets, they should really not be voting for bombing other people - those who wish to be alone with their consciences would do better to consider a life of religious contemplation," said a campaign spokesperson.

Jeremy Corbyn: Oldham by-election 'a referendum on Labour leader'

3 December

Voters are heading to the polls today for a by-election after the death of Labour stalwart Michael Meacher, who held the Oldham West and Royton constituency for 45 years.

Jeremy Corbyn now faces his first electoral test since becoming party leader, with the historic Labour stronghold under threat from Ukip.

"This election is a referendum on Jeremy Corbyn," said Ukip deputy leader, Paul Nuttall. The party has been exploiting concerns over division within Labour as well as Corbyn's reluctance to authorise lethal force and his opposition to air strikes against Islamic State in Syria, says the BBC.

Some are predicting a major upset in one of Labour's safest northern seats today, but there were mixed feelings among the electorate towards Corbyn and his party ahead of the vote, The Guardian reports.

Matthew Ward, a 43-year-old factory worker, said he was tempted by Ukip because "they speak for the majority who work, who are getting really peed off with what's going on in this country".

But one British-Bengali woman said she and her family would be voting for Labour candidate Jim McMahon, the young and popular leader of Oldham council.

She said she liked Corbyn because he understands Muslims and does not seek to blame them for the actions of Islamic State terrorists, the newspaper reports.

The stakes are high for both parties, says Dr Robert Ford, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Manchester.

"Ukip, weakened by infighting and a funding crunch, sorely needs a morale boost," he writes in The Guardian. "The Labour leadership also needs a thumping win to ease pressure from its internal critics."

To lose such a safe seat would be catastrophic for Labour as a whole and for Corbyn personally, politics professor Matthew Goodwin writes for Politics.co.uk.

But he argues that this is unlikely due to McMahon's strong power base and links to minority communities. "It will likely be a very difficult night for Labour but not a catastrophic one."

Full-list of candidates:

• Conservative: James Daly
• Labour: Jim McMahon
• UKIP: John Bickley
• Liberal Democrat: Jane Brophy
• Green Party: Simeon Hart
• Monster Raving Loony: Sir Oink A-Lot

Jeremy Corbyn: PM under fire for 'terrorist sympathisers' remark

2 December

David Cameron is facing calls to apologise after comments he made about Jeremy Corbyn and his allies ahead of today's divisive vote on launching air strikes in Syria.

Speaking to his backbenchers last night, the prime minister urged MPs not to align themselves with the Labour leader "and a bunch of terrorist sympathisers."

"If you, like me, agree that [Islamic State] needs to be defeated, you should not be sitting on your hands," he added.

Cameron's comments sparked a furious backlash from his political opponents, with Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson branding the prime minister's remarks "appalling".

"All MPs takes this decision seriously. David Cameron should apologise for his disrespectful comments," he tweeted. Watson is thought to among those in the party in favour of air strikes.

A Labour party spokesperson added that Cameron's comments were "contemptible" and showed he "realises he has failed to make a convincing case for military action," The Guardian reports.

The row comes as the PM prepares to host a ten-hour debate in the Commons, where he will outline his plans to bomb Islamic State.

Angus Robertson, the SNP leader at Westminster, said he hoped the PM "regrets these unacceptable comments, retracts them and apologises at the start of the Syria debate," Sky News reports.

Asked if Cameron should apologise, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said that he "was not in the room" when the comments were "apparently" made.

"But I imagine he had in mind some very ill advised remarks that some very senior Labour politicians have made which are capable of the wrong interpretation."

Corbyn is strongly opposed to military action in Syria, but decided to allow his MPs to vote with their conscience following the threat of resignations from his shadow cabinet.

He yesterday urged his MPs planning to vote with the government to "think again" and reiterated his warning that air strikes would result in civilian casualties.

"We're going to kill people," he said. "We're going to kill people in their homes by our bombs."

Jeremy Corbyn to allow a free vote on air strikes in Syria

30 November

Jeremy Corbyn will offer Labour MPs a free vote on air strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, a senior party source has confirmed.

The decision emerged after a crucial meeting was held between the Labour leader and his shadow cabinet over whether Labour MPs should be allowed to vote according to their conscience on air strikes.

A parliamentary vote on extending military action against Islamic State targets is expected to take place later this week, with the Labour leader holding the key to whether British bombs fall on Syria.

He remains opposed to air strikes, but until this afternoon had not declared whether he would allow his MPs to follow their conscience in a free vote or insist they oppose military action.

Before the announcement, The Guardian said it was unlikely that Downing Street would proceed with a vote at all if Corbyn insisted on whipping his party against military action.

Corbyn, who has warned that air strikes will lead to civilian casualties, insists that he represents the views of Labour party members, with very early analysis of the most recent poll suggesting that 75 per cent were opposed to British air strikes in Syria.

But a refusal to hold a free vote could have led to the resignation of senior MPs, predicted the newspaper.

One shadow cabinet minister went as far as to suggest that Corbyn could lose half his shadow cabinet if he forced them to vote against air strikes.

Those thought to support the government's line include the shadow foreign secretary, Hilary Benn, deputy leader Tom Watson and shadow lord chancellor Charles Falconer.

Speaking to the BBC's Andrew Marr yesterday, Corbyn acknowledged the possibility of a coup being planned: "I feel there are some people who haven't quite got used to the idea the party is in a different place."

The boss of Britain's biggest union, Len McCluskey, warned those "calling on him to quit for having the temerity to maintain his values and principles" that they would be "resisted all the way".

Writing in the Huffington Post, the general secretary of Unite, said: "If those Westminster bubble-dwellers who hanker back to the politics of the past cannot show the elected leader – and those who voted for him – more respect, then they are writing their own political obituaries."

Jeremy Corbyn faces shadow cabinet resignations over vote on Syria air strikes

27 November

The Labour party is in turmoil today, reports The Guardian, after Jeremy Corbyn wrote to all Labour MPs last night saying he cannot support air strikes in Syria – despite having told the shadow cabinet that he wanted them to reach a "collective decision" after the weekend.

More than half the shadow cabinet disagree with Corbyn and, according to the Daily Telegraph, they are furious. They have accused the party leader of being "fundamentally dishonest" and treating them with "contempt" by laying out his personal position and appearing to "pre-empt" a meeting on Monday at which a decision is to be made.

As a result, Corbyn risks a mass resignation of shadow ministers unless he offers them a free vote on the issue, which he is currently showing no signs of agreeing to.

However, Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary who believes David Cameron put a strong case for British military involvement yesterday, said this morning he would not resign if Labour backbenchers followed their party leader in voting against bombing Islamic State targets within Syria.

Benn insisted on Radio 4's Today programme that he had "no problem" with Corbyn making his personal feelings clear to Labour MPs. He also claimed he could live with a party decision against bombing should Corbyn not allow a free vote – even if it meant Cameron having to call off a Commons vote because he could not be guaranteed a cross-party majority for bombing.

The Telegraph reports that Labour insiders believe Corbyn will eventually bend to the wishes of his shadow chancellor and closest ally John McDonnell, who, while he personally supports Corbyn's stance against bombing, believes that a free vote is the only way out of this impasse.

In the meantime, shadow ministers are apparently demanding that a "formal statement" be issued stating that the majority of them back Cameron. "That would result in Mr Corbyn effectively rebelling against his own shadow cabinet and party – an unprecedented move that would leave him dangerously vulnerable," says the Telegraph.

Isabel Hardman of The Spectator believes that if Corbyn doesn't allow a free vote, there will be "a good number of resignations" from the shadow cabinet. "And they will be resignations, not people daring Corbyn to sack them," she writes.

Most of those who agreed to take shadow cabinet positions did so for the good of the Labour party, not the good of Jeremy Corbyn, Hardman argues. "Some are starting to wonder whether staying in is really going to help. Others feel screwed over and humiliated by the Corbyn operation, such that it is.

"They seem far less taken with a man who they previously thought was wrong but very pleasant. Now they seem to see him as wrong, weak and very bad at dealing with anyone who doesn't totally agree with him."

In his letter to backbenchers, the Labour leader explained why Cameron's lengthy appeal to MPs yesterday to back Britain joining the US and France in bombing IS within Syria had failed to win him over.

"In my view, the PM has been unable to explain the contribution of additional UK bombing to a comprehensive negotiated political settlement of the Syrian civil war, or its likely impact on the threat of terrorist attacks in the UK.

"For these, and other reasons, I do not believe the PM's current proposal for air strikes in Syria will protect our security and therefore cannot support it."

Faced with his shadow minister's dissent, Corbyn is drawing up plans to "reach over the heads of his frontbench" with an appeal to backbenchers at the regular Monday night Parliamentary Labour Party meeting, the Guardian reports.

The Times calls it the "deepest crisis" so far of Corbyn's leadership and quotes Diane Abbott, one of the few shadow cabinet team to take Corbyn's side against military intervention, warning her colleagues to remember that they owed their cabinet positions to the party leader. "He is the one with the electoral mandate," she added.

The Times points out that while Corbyn may be at odds with his own team, he is "in tune" with Labour supporters, only 30 per cent of whom want British action in Syria. In contrast, however, 58 per cent of the British public back air strikes, according to a recent YouGov poll.

Faced with a tough three days trying to change the minds of shadow ministers and backbenchers, Corbyn has scrapped today's planned visit to the constituency of Oldham West and Royton, where Labour face a serious challenge from Ukip in next week's by-election, caused by the death of MP Michael Meacher.

The Daily Mirror says Labour should retain the seat, but that the party is "braced" for the 14,738 majority at the general election to be slashed. "We should win but the majority will be nothing like it was for Meacher," one Labour MP told the paper. "A lot of that is down to Jeremy.

Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor McDonnell face 'Apocalypse Mao

26 November

Thirty-nine years after his death, public criticism of Chairman Mao remains taboo in China, The Guardian reminds us this morning. Seventy-five days into the Corbyn-McDonnell era, criticism of the Labour duo just went up another notch.

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell's decision to quote from Mao's Little Red Book in response to the Chancellor's Autumn Statement was "misguided", "misjudged" and "beyond embarrassment", depending on who you listen to this morning.

Not only did it raise questions about McDonnell's ability to think on his feet – an essential skill for any shadow chancellor – it overshadowed his opportunity to attack Osborne's "humiliating retreat", in the words of The Times, on in-work tax credits.

As a result, says The Spectator, it was "another disastrous day for Labour's messaging – once again showing that the party's current leadership are prone to silly gaffes that make it look amateurish".

So, what on earth was McDonnell thinking?

McDonnell's 'naive' gaffe

One of the most difficult 'gigs' in politics is be the shadow chancellor and have to respond to the set-piece Budget and Autumn Statement. You have only a limited idea of what the Chancellor is going to say and you need to be able to think on your feet. Hence the temptation to have something prepared.

In the event, McDonnell didn't need to tease Osborne about his eagerness to have the People's Republic of China invest in Britain.

He "could have made a hard-hitting speech attacking Mr Osborne's climbdowns on tax-credits cuts and police budgets," writes Quentin Letts in the Daily Mail. "He could have done a Henry Higgins 'By Jove I think he's got it' riff and welcomed the Chancellor to the anti-austerity camp."

McDonnell could have attacked any number of weak spots. "He could have observed that the Chancellor had just made affordable housing only slightly less unaffordable," says John Crace in The Guardian.

"He could certainly have made capital from Osborne screwing up working tax credits so badly in his previous budget that he had been forced to come back to the Commons for a resit… But the shadow chancellor doesn't do capital or profit. He does dialectics. Apocalypse Mao."

And so McDonnell stuck to his plan, pulled a copy of the Little Red Book out of his pocket, read a short passage and then threw it across the dispatch box towards Osborne.

Whether an inexperienced adviser came up with the wheeze, or whether McDonnell thought of it himself, someone should have stopped it, a Labour insider tells The Week.

"To play into the hands of the Tories who want the public to perceive the Labour leadership duo as a pair of old commies was just… well, to be polite, horribly misguided."

Isabel Hardman of The Spectator says it just shows "how unsuited McDonnell is to this role: it was fundamentally naïve".

George Osborne's gleeful response

Osborne has plenty of experience of thinking on his feet – and used it to good effect. "The shadow chancellor literally stood at the dispatch box and read out from Mao's Little Red Book," the Chancellor responded, looking genuinely surprised. "Oh look," he went on. "It's his personal signed copy! The problem is half the shadow cabinet have been sent off to re-education!"

Writes Crace in The Guardian: "Osborne could scarcely believe his luck. What promised to be a day of utter humiliation had turned into yet another day of glory. He was officially again a genius who had rescued himself from his last bout of genius."

Labour colleagues' grim reaction

While the gaffe sparked laughter from the Tory benches, "Labour backbenchers' faces turned a ghostly grey," writes Letts in the Mail.

"Mr McDonnell's friends will say he was trying to be funny. Two basic rules in self-preservation run thus: never pass a loose-pinned hand grenade to a tremulous drunk; never entrust a joke to a politician who has no sense of humour."

Chris Leslie, McDonnell's predecessor as shadow chancellor, called it a "misjudged stunt", while Angela Eagle, shadow first secretary of state, said that the move "probably backfired".

The Times quotes a senior Labour figure saying it was "beyond embarrassing" and reports: "Some in the party expressed hope that it would hasten the end of the Corbyn era."

McDonnell's disappearing act

Under no illusion that his joke had backfired, McDonnell's only solution, writes Sebastian Payne in The Spectator, was to "indulge in some Stalinist censorship".

In the video clip released on McDonnell's YouTube channel, the Mao joke has been erased, or "disappeared", says Payne.

The video fades out from McDonnell discussing the sale of public assets to the People's Republic of China and fades back in to him saying: "In the end, this debate is about what sort of society we want to live in." No mention of Mao.

Jeremy Corbyn risks losing 'safe' Oldham by-election

25 November

Labour is in danger of losing next week's by-election in one of the party's safest northern seats, Oldham West and Royton, which the late Michael Meacher held with a whopping 14,738 majority at the general election. And the blame is being laid squarely at Jeremy Corbyn's door.

The Daily Telegraph claims that after a single visit to the constituency on November 6, Corbyn is considered so "toxic" among voters that he is being kept away from the seat where the young Labour candidate, Jim McMahon, faces a tough challenge from Ukip's John Bickley. (Neither the Conservative nor Lib Dem candidate is considered a contender.)

The Financial Times witnessed an elderly voter approach McMahon in a café to thank him for his work as Oldham council leader. Would he be voting Labour on December 3? "It's Jeremy," came the reply. "He's your problem. I have always voted Labour, but this time I just don't know."

The Daily Express says Labour is getting "jittery" about losing, because it can see it is "haemorrhaging" votes to Ukip. A senior Labour source says defeat in Oldham "could be a trigger for a coup" against Corbyn.

The Labour leader's office says he will visit Oldham later this week, and that his absence is because he has to manage "other commitments" – not least the upcoming Syria bombing vote – as well as the by-election.

Tellingly, Ukip leader Nigel Farage has visited the seat on three occasions – November 3, 6 and 10 – and intends to campaign solidly from this Sunday through to polling day next Thursday.

So, what are the issues giving Ukip such confidence and Labour such jitters?

Corbyn and the Paris attacks

Even before Paris, the tone of Ukip's campaign was clear, says Tim Wigmore in the New Statesman. An early leaflet attacked Corbyn's Labour party for advocating uncontrolled mass immigration, wanting to axe the armed forces altogether and wanting to return the Falkland Islands to Argentina.

But ever since Corbyn said last Monday that he was "not happy" about our police adopting a "shoot-to-kill" policy should a British city be attacked, Ukip has targeted the Labour leader relentlessly.

The Telegraph quotes an Oldham voter saying she was concerned Corbyn was a "pacifist" and that if the UK were attacked she wanted "a prime minister who will respond".

The Ukip candidate told the New Statesman that the Paris attacks "must be a game-changer" because people require a basic level of security. "People will want to know 'what's my government doing to make sure what happened in Paris can't happen here'?"

The rise of 'Red Ukip'

Ukip isn't relying on Paris and Corbyn's perceived shoot-to-kill faux-pas. The party was already making inroads into Labour support thanks to its strategy of targeting working-class Labour seats. The strategy is the brainchild of deputy leader Paul Nuttall, writes Ed West in The Spectator.

West believes Ukip is here to stay because of its growing attraction to old Labour supporters. "All the trends suggest that populist parties are a permanent feature of European politics now. Even Germany's version of Ukip has now broken into double figures, and that's a country where the taboos about xenophobia are strongest; it seems unlikely it will go away in Britain, even after Farage retires."

The New Statesman also picks up on Ukip's increasing popularity among "restless Labourites".

The emergence of 'Red Ukip' as a campaigning force is evident in the party's leaflets, writes Tim Wigmore. Having attacked "Labour's millionaires" in northern by-elections last year, they're now circulating literature on "How Labour privatised the NHS: And How Ukip will save it, for you".

It's part of a wider strategy to undermine the rationale for supporting Labour, Ukip's Bickley tells the New Statesman. "For Labour the NHS has to be in crisis when they're not in power. Without that, the reasons for them to exist start to look quite tenuous. So they will always pitch the NHS as being an utter disaster when they're not in charge."

John Bickley: a strong Ukip candidate

Labour is undoubtedly fielding an excellent local candidate in Jim McMahon, the young and popular leader of Oldham council. But he faces an exceptional Ukip candidate in 62-year-old John Bickley.

The son of a Labour-supporting trade unionist, Bickley defies the main caricatures of a Ukip candidate, says the Spectator, being "neither a crusty retired colonel nor a tedious tub-thumper".

Bickley is asking Labour voters to free themselves from "political Stockholm syndrome," and "break free of their tribe".

"We're saying to voters: you've had the Labour Party for 70 years, what have they achieved for you?" As for Corbyn and "his cabal of Marxists", it's "not unreasonable to point out this man is not an overt patriot".

Does Bickley really stand a chance? "No one else should be in the race here," says the man himself. "But with everything that is going on, who knows? No one can second guess the effect of Corbyn and what clearly now is open warfare within the Labour party."

But then there's Jim McMahon…

Here's the twist: McMahon might not only win Oldham West and Royton next week – as he clearly should – but he could also be the man to replace Corbyn as party leader when the time comes.

That's the view of Mike Smithson at Political Betting, who knows a thing or two about taking a punt on a longshot.

Labour is short of backbenchers with leadership potential, says Smithson, as the emergence of Corbyn this summer proved. But McMahon is personable, articulate and engaging. "He's also said to have a real presence and he's still in his mid-30s."

And why did McMahon offer himself as candidate when he was being widely tipped as a serious contender for the mayor of the new Greater Manchester authority, the second biggest elected post in the country after Mayor of London?

"Whoever gets that will have a massive job and a huge amount of personal power," says Smithson. "By comparison the role of a backbench opposition MP will seem rather small.

"I cannot believe that the bright and resourceful Mr McMahon has not thought that one through and that he's seen an opportunity for himself in moving his ambition from a regional to a national level."