Can the UK successfully evacuate British nationals from Lebanon?

More than a thousand British troops are on standby for a mass evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon as tensions rise in the Middle East, in an operation which could be "on a similar scale" as the operation during the Taliban's takeover of Kabul.

"Hundreds of military personnel from all three services, including Royal Marine commandos, have already been deployed to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus," reported The Times. The paper added that "hundreds more" troops in the UK are "being held at readiness to move out to the region".

The risk of a "sudden" escalation in the region is deemed "so acute" that preparations are underway for an evacuation on the scale of Operation Pitting, the mission that rescued British citizens and Afghans from Kabul following the Taliban's takeover in August 2021.

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The Foreign Office has repeatedly urged British nationals to leave Lebanon after the recent killings of two militant leaders in Beirut and Tehran — attacks attributed to Israel by Iran. British ministers are now preparing for a possible coordinated attack on Israel involving Iran, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed proxies, which in turn could provoke a significant response from Israel.

There is concern that Israel might "widen its strikes" and retaliate with airstrikes across Lebanon, potentially triggering a crisis that "could spiral into an all-out regional conflict" involving the United States and the UK, said the paper.

There are "real fears of an all-out war that would be even worse than the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah", said The Independent, a conflict that "is believed to have killed around 1,300 Lebanese people and 165 Israelis."

What did the commentators say?

Currently, an estimated 16,000 British nationals are in Lebanon, Foreign Secretary David Lammy told the House of Commons last week. Urging British nationals to leave immediately, he said: "Tensions are high, and the situation could deteriorate rapidly. While we are working around the clock to strengthen our consular presence in Lebanon, my message to British nationals there is clear — leave now."

A source told The Times that there are concerns the region could become "red hot" with Israel possibly targeting areas like Dahiyeh, Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut. There are also fears that Israel may "go hard" in an attack on the country and bomb its international airport, as occurred in the 2006 war, said the paper. "The question is, what comes after that?" the source added.

Commercial airlines may also soon cease operations in and out of Lebanon, leaving British nationals facing an "agonising decision" to either "hunker down wherever they are until the fighting subsides or to evacuate", said The Daily Mail.

In response, the government has "stepped up" plans for a 'Dunkirk-style' evacuation, codenamed Operation Meteoric, which would be led by the Royal Navy and Royal Marines.

Operation Meteoric would involve HMS Duncan, a Type 45 destroyer currently sailing in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the supply ship RFA Cardigan Bay. British Typhoon fighter jets, flying from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, would also provide air support for stranded Britons.

Royal Marines from 30 Commando have already "conducted reconnaissance along the Lebanese coast to choose a landing site", said the paper. Border Force officials would process UK nationals as they boarded Royal Navy and RFA vessels.

But questions are already emerging "over the readiness of Border Force (UKBF) to respond to the deepening security crisis", after an official was photographed holding a document outlining the role of immigration officials in a potential rescue bid, said the paper.

"Will there be enough UKBF resource? How long could UKBF sustain this operation? Do they have the capability to process 24/7?" the document asked.

Some British nationals in Lebanon have also reported facing "bureaucratic obstacles" in following Foreign Office advice to leave via commercial routes, said The Times. With Syria's border closed to most Westerners and no ferry services, "the airport is the only route in or out".

Others say their funds were "lost or frozen" during the 2019 collapse of Lebanon's banking system, leaving them unable to afford a return to the UK.

What next?

Amid "a flurry of international diplomacy to de-escalate tensions," Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was urged by Keir Starmer to "stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack" during a rare telephone conversation on Monday, said the BBC.

But Pezeshkian reportedly dismissed these appeals, asserting that retaliation was a "way to stop crime" and Iran’s "legal right," according to Iranian state media.

Meanwhile, Israel, while not confirming involvement in the assassinations, has elevated its military to the highest alert level. The US has also warned that it is bracing for "a significant set of attacks" by Iran or its proxies as early as this week and has bolstered its military presence in the Middle East to support Israel.