Reform surge: which party should be most afraid?

Reform UK has successfully converted its recent opinion-poll surge into a string of ballot-box victories across England – solidifying its status as an electoral threat to the country's two main political parties.

Most eye-catching of all was the win in this parliament's first by-election, with Reform candidate Sarah Pochin snatching the once-safe Labour seat of Runcorn and Helsby by a mere six votes.

Nigel Farage's insurgent right-wing party also won its first mayoral contest, with Andrea Jenkyns taking 42% of the vote in Greater Lincolnshire, far ahead of the Conservative candidate's 26%. In county-council elections, Reform looks to be gaining ground rapidly, too, taking about 35% of the vote share so far.

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What did the commentators say?

The "big question" on everyone's lips as polls opened yesterday was whether Reform "now pose a significant challenge to both the Conservatives and the Labour party", political scientist John Curtice said in a BBC interview. "The answer to that question so far is quite clearly yes."

Reform's by-election victory confirms that this "still new" Labour government "is so deeply unpopular that it cannot hold one of its safest seats", said John Rentoul in The Independent. A "landslide general election win", just 10 months ago, "that matched the giddiness of Blairphoria" has now "turned into the humiliation of defeat at the hands of Nigel Farage". It also confirms that Morgan McSweeney, Keir Starmer's chief of staff, "is right to see Farage as the main threat to the Labour government".

For the Conservatives, it's even worse. They are losing support to Reform on the right and the Liberal Democrats on the left, said Nigel Jones in The Spectator. They are vulnerable both to "affluent middle-class progressives still upset by Brexit, and working-class communities concerned by mass immigration and the rising cost of living". The "big peril" is that "they're caught in an irreversible death spiral from which there can be no return."

"Voter volatility has been the foundation of Reform's swift rise," said Stephen Pollard in The Telegraph. But that could just as easily become its "Achilles heel" in the months to come. Reform's local-election triumphs mean "it is going to have to start running social care, transport, schools and collecting the bins". And Labour's "dreadful" start in government has shown just how difficult it is "to actually do things in power".

Reform doesn't seem to have much plan, other than "not being Labour or the Tories". And even if they did, they'd do well to remember boxer Mike Tyson’s "famous assertion that everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. Reality tends to punch governments – and councils and mayors – in the face."

What next?

Council declarations will keep rolling in throughout the day, with the majority due by around 7pm. Reform is expected to take over several councils.

"Make no mistake, these results will shape the tone, tenor and focus of the political conversation" in the months ahead, said Chris Mason, political editor of the BBC. And both Labour and Tory politicians will be "staring, sleep-deprived, hard into the mirror and working out how to respond".