When the US agreed to normalise relations with Venezuela, it was on the proviso that Nicolás Maduro would hold "free and fair elections".
The authoritarian president, who inherited power from the late revolutionary Hugo Chávez in 2013 and whose re-election in 2018 was widely condemned as fraudulent, is not recognised as legitimate by most of the world. The Trump administration responded to the sham elections with harsh sanctions on Maduro and the oil-rich yet desperately poor South American nation.
But an agreement last October, which allowed Joe Biden to lift most of the sanctions, may give Venezuelans the chance to vote a deeply unpopular incumbent out of the Miraflores Palace on 28 July.
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How is the election campaign going?
After years of negotiation, the Maduro regime and the opposition signed a US-backed agreement in October to hold a fair election. But authorities disqualified hugely popular opposition leader María Corina Machado, who had won more than 90% of the vote in the primaries, on "trumped-up grounds", said The Economist. The government-allied Supreme Court upheld the ban in January, which led the US to reimpose most sanctions.
Machado has since "ceded all her political capital" to proxy Edmundo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old diplomat who "until now had moved behind the scenes of power", said El País, and now leads in the polls by 20 to 30%.
This has "prompted Maduro to launch a charm offensive", said the Financial Times, appearing on TikTok and at rallies "with a spry, avuncular persona". A leader responsible for "economic disaster" now presents himself as a "relatable everyman" from the barrio, who "dances, poses for selfies and sings for his audience".
For the first time since 2013, the Maduro government "looks scared", said Foreign Policy. "It fears democracy," wrote Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House. About two-thirds of Venezuelans say they would support any opposition candidate against Maduro. "Stealing this contest won't be as easy as it was for Maduro in 2017, 2018 or 2020."
Will they be 'free and fair' elections?
The regime's internal polling shows that in a fair vote, Maduro would be "totally doomed", a source told The Economist. But he "appears determined to cling to power – through intimidation".
At least 37 opposition activists have been arrested this year, and 10 elected mayors who supported González have been ousted. Maduro also withdrew an invitation to the EU to send a delegation of election observers.
Only 69,000 out of at least 3.5 million eligible Venezuelans abroad were able to register to vote, due to cumbersome bureaucracy and expense, according to rights groups. The "vast majority" would have voted for the opposition, said the FT.
Maduro controls most state institutions, including the courts, the electoral authorities, the army and much of the media – "not to mention violent paramilitary gangs", said The New York Times (NYT). There is "widespread doubt" that he would accept or even publicise an opposition victory.
That's if the election even happens. The prospect of postponing the ballot is being "openly talked about", said El País. A manufactured incident in the ongoing territory dispute with neighbouring Guyana, or a purported threat to Maduro's life, could provide the pretext.
What are the stakes?
Maduro's tenure has been marked by economic collapse, growing authoritarianism and the largest exodus of people in Latin American history. Nearly eight million Venezuelans – more than a quarter of the population – have fled since 2014.
Over the past decade, GDP has declined by about 73%, said Reuters. Venezuela suffers the second-highest level of hunger in South America, and, for the 10th consecutive year, the highest inflation in the world. This election, the "dire straits in which many live" will be "top of people's minds".
If Maduro claims victory, Venezuela will "remain paralysed", said El País. A second hostile Trump presidency would "complicate things even further".
That could also have a knock-on effect on the US elections. More than half of migrants crossing the Darién Gap into the US are Venezuelan, which has already become a "dominant theme" in campaigns, said the NYT.
If González wins, experts believe millions could return home, but if Maduro clings to power, "even more will be tempted to head to the US border", said CNN.
In the US, Maduro still faces criminal charges of "human rights abuse, corruption and involvement in the narcotics trade", said the FT. If Maduro does give up power, it would almost certainly be with a deal that would shield him from prosecution.
Also at stake is the future of Venezuela's oil reserves – the largest in the world – and the strength of its alliances with China, Russia and Iran. Those authoritarian nations have "already embedded efforts to expand their economic and political presence in Venezuela and the hemisphere", said Sabatini. Russia will be "doing everything it can to scuttle international interests in a free and fair election".
