Venezuela election: first vote in a decade offers hope to poverty-stricken nation
Nicolás Maduro agreed to 'free and fair' vote but poor polling and threat of prosecution pushes disputed leader to desperate methods
When the US agreed to normalise relations with Venezuela, it was on the proviso that Nicolás Maduro would hold "free and fair elections".
The authoritarian president, who inherited power from the late revolutionary Hugo Chávez in 2013 and whose re-election in 2018 was widely condemned as fraudulent, is not recognised as legitimate by most of the world. The Trump administration responded to the sham elections with harsh sanctions on Maduro and the oil-rich yet desperately poor South American nation.
But an agreement last October, which allowed Joe Biden to lift most of the sanctions, may give Venezuelans the chance to vote a deeply unpopular incumbent out of the Miraflores Palace on 28 July.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
How is the election campaign going?
After years of negotiation, the Maduro regime and the opposition signed a US-backed agreement in October to hold a fair election. But authorities disqualified hugely popular opposition leader María Corina Machado, who had won more than 90% of the vote in the primaries, on "trumped-up grounds", said The Economist. The government-allied Supreme Court upheld the ban in January, which led the US to reimpose most sanctions.
Machado has since "ceded all her political capital" to proxy Edmundo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old diplomat who "until now had moved behind the scenes of power", said El País, and now leads in the polls by 20 to 30%.
This has "prompted Maduro to launch a charm offensive", said the Financial Times, appearing on TikTok and at rallies "with a spry, avuncular persona". A leader responsible for "economic disaster" now presents himself as a "relatable everyman" from the barrio, who "dances, poses for selfies and sings for his audience".
For the first time since 2013, the Maduro government "looks scared", said Foreign Policy. "It fears democracy," wrote Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House. About two-thirds of Venezuelans say they would support any opposition candidate against Maduro. "Stealing this contest won't be as easy as it was for Maduro in 2017, 2018 or 2020."
Will they be 'free and fair' elections?
The regime's internal polling shows that in a fair vote, Maduro would be "totally doomed", a source told The Economist. But he "appears determined to cling to power – through intimidation".
At least 37 opposition activists have been arrested this year, and 10 elected mayors who supported González have been ousted. Maduro also withdrew an invitation to the EU to send a delegation of election observers.
Only 69,000 out of at least 3.5 million eligible Venezuelans abroad were able to register to vote, due to cumbersome bureaucracy and expense, according to rights groups. The "vast majority" would have voted for the opposition, said the FT.
Maduro controls most state institutions, including the courts, the electoral authorities, the army and much of the media – "not to mention violent paramilitary gangs", said The New York Times (NYT). There is "widespread doubt" that he would accept or even publicise an opposition victory.
That's if the election even happens. The prospect of postponing the ballot is being "openly talked about", said El País. A manufactured incident in the ongoing territory dispute with neighbouring Guyana, or a purported threat to Maduro's life, could provide the pretext.
What are the stakes?
Maduro's tenure has been marked by economic collapse, growing authoritarianism and the largest exodus of people in Latin American history. Nearly eight million Venezuelans – more than a quarter of the population – have fled since 2014.
Over the past decade, GDP has declined by about 73%, said Reuters. Venezuela suffers the second-highest level of hunger in South America, and, for the 10th consecutive year, the highest inflation in the world. This election, the "dire straits in which many live" will be "top of people's minds".
If Maduro claims victory, Venezuela will "remain paralysed", said El País. A second hostile Trump presidency would "complicate things even further".
That could also have a knock-on effect on the US elections. More than half of migrants crossing the Darién Gap into the US are Venezuelan, which has already become a "dominant theme" in campaigns, said the NYT.
If González wins, experts believe millions could return home, but if Maduro clings to power, "even more will be tempted to head to the US border", said CNN.
In the US, Maduro still faces criminal charges of "human rights abuse, corruption and involvement in the narcotics trade", said the FT. If Maduro does give up power, it would almost certainly be with a deal that would shield him from prosecution.
Also at stake is the future of Venezuela's oil reserves – the largest in the world – and the strength of its alliances with China, Russia and Iran. Those authoritarian nations have "already embedded efforts to expand their economic and political presence in Venezuela and the hemisphere", said Sabatini. Russia will be "doing everything it can to scuttle international interests in a free and fair election".
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Harriet Marsden is a writer for The Week, mostly covering UK and global news and politics. Before joining the site, she was a freelance journalist for seven years, specialising in social affairs, gender equality and culture. She worked for The Guardian, The Times and The Independent, and regularly contributed articles to The Sunday Times, The Telegraph, The New Statesman, Tortoise Media and Metro, as well as appearing on BBC Radio London, Times Radio and “Woman’s Hour”. She has a master’s in international journalism from City University, London, and was awarded the "journalist-at-large" fellowship by the Local Trust charity in 2021.
-
Kelly Cates to present Match of the Day
Speed Read Sky Sports presenter to take over from Gary Lineker at start of next season
By Elizabeth Carr-Ellis, The Week UK Published
-
Eclipses 'on demand' mark a new era in solar physics
Under the radar The European Space Agency's Proba-3 mission gives scientists the ability to study one of the solar system's most compelling phenomena
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Crossword: December 16, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Precedent-setting lawsuit against Glock seeks gun industry accountability
The Explainer New Jersey and Minnesota are suing the gun company, and 16 states in total are joining forces to counter firearms
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Kari Lake: the election denier picked to lead Voice of America
In the Spotlight A staunch Trump ally with a history of incendiary rhetoric and spreading conspiracy theories is Donald Trump's pick to lead the country's premier state media outlet
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
How Assad's dictatorial regime rose and fell in Syria
The Explainer The Syrian leader fled the country after a 24-year authoritarian rule
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Inside Trump's billionaire Cabinet
The Explainer Is the government ready for a Trump administration stacked with some of the wealthiest people in the world?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'Why is the expansion of individual autonomy necessarily always good?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
News overload
Opinion Too much breaking news is breaking us
By Theunis Bates Published
-
Natalie Harp: the far-right conspiracy conduit who will be Trump's information gatekeeper
In the Spotlight How Natalie Harp rose from obscurity to trusted Trump aide
By David Faris Published
-
'Vance stands at a crossroads'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published