As Keir Starmer attempts a "reset" of post-Brexit relations with the EU, Donald Trump's re-election – and the trade war he risks with the tariffs he's threatened – looms over negotiations.
The prime minister has promised to improve Britain's relationship with Brussels. He is pursuing deals on security and defence, while still working with the US president-elect on improving trade with the US (the UK's biggest trade partner) – despite Labour's staunch support of the Democrats.
Trump could also spare Britain from a global trade war by offering the UK a preferential trade agreement, according to Peggy Grande, a political appointee in his last administration. Trump would target the EU with tariffs more than Britain because he wants to see a "successful Brexit", Grande told The Independent.
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But any such deal could undermine Starmer's pursuit of closer ties with the EU. It "may be seen by the EU as a signal that the UK is limiting its reset ambitions", John Alty, a former government trade official, told the i news site.
Trump once called himself "Mr. Brexit", said Politico. "But eight years later, could he be about to wreck it?"
"Once upon a time", the UK was "Washington's best friend in Brussels and Europe's hotline to the White House", said The Guardian's Rafael Behr. Now, Starmer is in an "invidious position". Decoupling from the US is "not a serious option", but to maintain that special relationship Trump will "demand vassalage, which will complicate Starmer's ambition for closer European ties".
"Britain could carry on pursuing a new security deal with the EU, while grovelling for special exemption from US tariffs." But, said Behr, "just the hint of alignment with Trump will sour any conversation about easing UK access to the single market." Trump's victory "reinfects the wound" of Brexit; effectively, Labour's foreign policy "blew up on 5 November".
But for many in Brussels, Trump's re-election actually means a desire for "stronger ties" between the EU and the UK, said Politico. The EU response to Trump's victory is to forge new security agreements with third countries; the UK is "top of the list", said an anonymous official.
Even Brexiteers in the UK are worried that Trump might "end up pushing Britain into Brussels' arms". But the scope of Britain's negotiations for a reset will be greatly influenced by Trump. His America First isolationist trade policies make Britain's attempted pivot away from Europe and towards global trade "that bit trickier".
Starmer needs to "review" his big red lines with the EU – keeping the UK out of the single market and customs union, and not reinstating freedom of movement – and "come up with a new plan", the anonymous diplomat said. "When circumstances change, one needs to rethink one's course of action."
Peter Mandelson, the frontrunner to be the UK's next ambassador to the US, has "hinted the UK can use Brexit to dodge" the tariffs Trump has threatened, said Mail Online. The Labour peer and leading Remainer suggested that Britain could "find a path between the US and the EU" if Trump does impose the severe import taxes he has threatened.
It is "wrong" to think that, in the event of a global trade war, the UK would have to choose between close collaboration with the EU's trade policy or a free-trade agreement with the US, Mandelson said on The Times's "How to win an election" podcast. The UK must "find a way to have our cake and eat it".
A recent ambassador to Washington thinks otherwise, however. "I don't see any special deal coming for the UK," Kim Darroch told The Times's political editor Steven Swinford. Trump will indeed "go big" on tariffs. And if the EU retaliates with tariffs on the US, said Swinford, the UK may have to choose a side.
What next?
When asked whether a free-trade agreement with the US could curb the attempted reset with the EU, the prime minister's spokesperson said: "No, the prime minister is clear that he wants to improve trade and investment relations with the EU, with the US and indeed with other partners around the world."
More talks are scheduled with EU leaders later this year and in the first half of next year, but Starmer is currently sticking to his three red lines. He also said he has no plans for a youth mobility scheme with the EU. However, the bloc views this policy as "an indispensable element" of negotiations, according to a leaked internal paper seen by Politico. The idea is "essential for our future relationship".
