World Cup odds: the intelligent punter's guide

last updated 17 June 2014

With the World Cup under way at last, what odds are available and who should you be putting your money on to win on 13 July?

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One of the most consistent World Cup performers, they’ve qualified for the past five tournaments and got out of their group on each occasion, but every time they’ve exited at the first knock-out stage. In fact the only times they’ve ever gone beyond the first knockout stage and reached the quarter-finals were in 1970 and 1986, when they had home advantage. Exit at the round of 16 looks the likeliest outcome.

The Indomitable Lions have won just one game at the World Cup finals since their memorable run to the quarters in 1990 and face a tough battle for second place behind Brazil. An experienced team, with the 33-year-old Samuel Eto’o leading the line in attack, their spirits will be boosted by their recent 2-2 draw in Germany. But they will probably need to beat Mexico in the opener to give themselves a chance of escaping from the group.

Beaten World Cup finalists in 2010 but they were awful in Euro 2012 where they lost all three matches and finished bottom of their group. So what to expect from the Oranje now? They qualified easily enough, and any team with Arjen Robben in it has to have a chance: but their cause hasn’t been helped by injuries and if they can only finish second in the group, they’re likely to be up against hosts Brazil in the last 16.

Came second in the very demanding CONMEBOL qualifying group and among their most eye-catching results was a 4-0 thrashing of Uruguay and a 3-1 win in Chile. They also beat Belgium, quietly fancied for the tournament, in a friendly. Conditions will suit them, though their chances of making it into the latter stages of the tournament have been hit with their prolific striker Radamel Falco being ruled out with injury.

The best team in Asia, Japan lost in a penalty shoot out in the last 16 in 2010 and look one of the more interesting outsiders this time round. A skilful and attack-minded team they performed with great credit in last year’s Confederations Cup in Brazil, showing they can cope with the conditions, and are likely to cause problems for all of their group opponents. Likely to perform better than their odds of 200-1 suggest.

Created arguably the biggest shock in the history of international football tournaments when they won the 2004 Euros and again surprised a few in the 2012 Euros when they made it to the knock-out stages. However, their record in the World Cup is poor: in their two previous performances they’ve failed to make it past the group stage. Although they‘re well organised, have a good defence and won’t be a pushover for anyone, a lack of goals is likely to prove their undoing.

Fourth-placed in 2010, it has to be said that they weren’t at all convincing in qualifying, showing particular weakness at the back. While their attack is strong, their chances of going a long way in the tournament will be reduced if Luis Suarez, who scored nearly half of their goals in qualifying, doesn’t recover from a knee injury in time. Their record in World Cups which have been held in the Americas is good, with two wins (including a victory in Brazil in 1950) and a semi-final in 1970 to their name.

Roy Hodgson got Switzerland out of the group stage in 1994 and under his management England topped their group in the 2012 Euros. So while it will be a tough ask to qualify, with the experienced Roy at the helm it’s not Mission Impossible. Getting something out of the first match against Italy looks a must: a defeat in that game really would leave the Three Lions with an uphill battle, with Uruguay coming up next. In their last four World Cups England have exited at the quarter-final stage twice and the last 16 twice, and given the obstacles they face, the 28-1 odds on winning the tournament don't look too generous.

Managed by the vastly experienced Ottmar Hitzfeld, who won the Champions League with Bayern Munich in 2001, the Swiss are ranked sixth in the world and should not be underestimated. Very well organised defensively, they were unbeaten in qualifying and beat Brazil in a friendly last August. There are two big concerns, however: will they score enough goals and will they cope with the stifling temperatures?

They sneaked in through the back door following a dramatic comeback in the second leg of their play-off with Ukraine but they're quietly fancied to do well. However, the loss of their best player, Franck Ribery, to injury is a big blow. Their record in the last four World Cups couldn’t be more contrasting: in 2002 and 2010 they were awful and failed to win a game; in 1998 and 2006 they made the final. Expect a more middle-of-the-road experience this time.

Bosnia-Herzegovina, to give them their full name, were excellent in qualifying, banging in 30 goals in ten games, and they’ve continued their good form in recent friendlies, which have included a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast. Playing in their first major tournament their chances are hard to weigh up but they should have no problem finding the net with their 6ft 4in striker Edin Dzeko in great form. Looks to be between them and Nigeria for second place.

Reached the last 16 twice in the 1990s, but didn’t make it out of the group stage in their last two World Cup appearances in 2002 and 2010. However, they won the last African Nations Cup in 2013. Although their preparation hasn’t been ideal - their only win in their last five matches was a 1-0 against Zimbabwe - they will pose an attacking threat with their direct style of play and they could be Africa’s best hope in the tournament.

You know one thing about a team managed and coached by Carlos Queiroz - they’re going to be very strong defensively. Iran conceded just two goals in their eight qualifying matches and have been just as parsimonious in recent friendlies, keeping clean sheets in three of their last four games. They’ll be looking to grind out results, but they probably won’t have enough firepower to make it to the knockout stages for the first time in their history. The 4-6 about them scoring under 2.5 goals looks a good bet.

Beaten semi-finalists in 2006 and 2010, beaten in the semi-final of the 2012 Euros, and the final in 2008, the Germans have become the ‘nearly men' of world football and they deserve a major tournament win for their consistency and attractive, attack-minded football. But while they have to go on anyone’s shortlist, their record in World Cups held in the Americas hasn’t been that great, with just one final appearance (Mexico 1986) to their name. They’ve also got two 1pm starts in the stifling heat of northern Brazil to overcome. That said, an each-way bet at 13-2 should give you a good run for your money at the very least.

Only the hand of Luis Suarez denied the Black Stars a place in the semis in South Africa where they would have made history as the first African team to make the last four in the World Cup. It’s hard to see them getting so close this time with such a difficult group to negotiate but if they can beat the USA in their opening game (and they did beat the USA in the last two World Cups) then they should go into their final match with Portugal with at least a chance of qualifying.

Arguably the most improved team in world football in the last couple of years, the Red Devils are now the fifth favourites for the tournament. Their qualifying group may not have been the strongest, but it was no mean feat to finish nine points clear. That said, defeats to Japan and Colombia in friendlies were disappointing. Their squad - which includes Premiership stars Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany and Romelu Lukaku - looks strong and if they get the breaks it wouldn‘t be a great surprise to see them make the quarter-finals for the first time since 1986.

Manager Fabio Capello will need no introduction to England fans, and you could say he has a point to prove after the Three Lions' poor performances in 2010. Russia were impressive in qualifying - they finished ahead of Portugal in their group - yet are available at over three times the Portuguese odds, so you could say their chances have been underestimated by the bookies. They should find their way out of the group, but if they can only finish second they’re likely to face Germany or Portugal in the next round.

Made it to the semis in 2002 when they co-hosted the tournament but it would be a massive surprise if they can make it as far this time. Only ranked 57th in the world, they weren’t at all impressive in qualification, only edging out Uzbekistan on goal difference and they lost at home to Tunisia in a recent friendly. They’ll need to up their game significantly to play a part here and will need to get something out of the opening match against Russia if they’re to have a realistic chance of progression.

They've failed to make it out of the group stage in three previous World Cup appearances (though they were very unlucky in 1982 when they won two matches) and it's likely to be the same scenario again. In South Africa in 2010 they didn’t play at all badly: they held England to a 0-0 draw, and only conceded two goals, but they didn’t score any either as their possession football lacked a cutting edge. They did find their scoring boots in qualifying and also in recent friendlies so hopefully this time there’ll at least be a goal for their fans to celebrate.

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is a writer, broadcaster and blogger who writes The Weekâ€™s Intelligent Punterâ€™s Guides. He is co-founder of the Campaign For Public Ownership. He tweets on sport @MightyMagyar and on politics and other subjects @NeilClark66

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