Oscar predictions 2025: who will win?

The Oscars season has arrived and with nominations set to be announced on 17 January, it's time to make some "bold" predictions, said Screen Rant. While certain films are "well positioned" to win, with various sets of data enabling "educated projections", it's important to remember that "there is always room for surprises".

Last year, "Oppenheimer" dominated the Oscars, scooping seven prizes including best film, best actor and best director (Christopher Nolan's first Oscar). Will this year's awards be as clear cut? Here's what the critics are saying.

Best picture

"Award-winning festival standouts" "Anora" and "Conclave" have emerged as the "cream of the crop", while "The Brutalist" is also a strong contender, said Entertainment Weekly. The Academy's growing "international voting base" means "Emilia Perez" is likely building significant "behind-the-scenes support".

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"Anora" is "very much in the lead", when it comes to "precursor recognitions", said Cooper Hood in Screen Rant. Sean Baker's film about a sex worker from Brooklyn who marries the son of an oligarch has already won the Palme d'Or from Cannes, as well as nominations from the Golden Globes, NBR, Gotham Awards, AFI and Film Independent Spirit Awards. "Wicked" has also started to "climb up prediction charts", having been awarded Best Film from NBR. Universal's film adaptation of the hit Broadway musical will appeal to voters looking for a more "feel-good movie".

Best director

While Variety predicts Brady Corbet will scoop best director for "The Brutalist", The Hollywood Reporter is forecasting Edward Berger will snap up the award with his mystery thriller about the selection of a new pope, "Conclave".

Many voters will follow suit, backing a "handful of filmmakers behind the year's most-praised pictures", but there are usually "one or two surprises" in the Best Director category, said Entertainment Weekly. The global voting base might see an "international director squeezing past more well-known directors"; French filmmaker Coralie Fargeat could land herself a spot this year with her body horror "visionary spectacle", "The Substance".

Best actor in a leading role

Looking through the list of previous Oscar winners who bagged best actor for playing a music legend, you can "easily be persuaded" that this could be Timothée Chalamet's year for his "convincing" portrayal of Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown", said Glenn Whipp in the Los Angeles Times. This would make him one of the youngest-ever Oscar winners.

Voters will also "almost certainly" nominate Colman Domingo for his performance as an inmate serving time for a crime he didn't commit in "deeply moving" prison drama, "Sing Sing". Last year, Domingo received a nomination for his portrayal of gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin in Netflix's eponymous biopic but lost out to Cillian Murphy for his starring role in "Oppenheimer".

"Falling behind Chalamet for now is Ralph Fiennes", said Hood in Screen Rant. While he's been nominated for an Oscar twice, it's been almost three decades since he was last recognised. Still, if voters decide to favour a "legacy angle", he could "emerge victorious" for his role as Cardinal Lawrence in "Conclave".

Best actress in a leading role

Angelina Jolie's turn as "ill-fated opera singer Maria Callas" in "Maria" could scoop her the Best Actress award, said Entertainment Weekly. Pablo Larrain has already directed two stars to nominations for the coveted prize (Natalie Portman for her portrayal of Jackie Kennedy in "Jackie" and Kristen Stewart for her portrait of Princess Diana in "Spencer"). Jolie's "superstar status" might bag her Oscar number three. But rising star Mikey Madison "occupies the other side of that coin"; a nomination for her leading role in "Anora" would mark the "budding" actress's "first nod at the top of a promising career".

Variety is forecasting Cynthia Erivo to win Best Actress for her starring role as Elphaba in "Wicked". The British actress has already been shortlisted for the Golden Globes best female actor in a comedy or musical film; if nominated for an Oscar she would become the second Black woman in history to earn two lead actress nominations.

Demi Moore is "absolutely deserving" of a nomination for her leading role in "The Substance", said Screen Rant. While the film doesn't tick the typical boxes as an Oscar contender, and Moore is something of an "outsider" in the race, a nomination would be an excellent opportunity to draw attention to her powerful performance.

Best actor in a supporting role

Denzel Washington's widely praised performance in "Gladiator II" feels like a "sure thing" for a nomination in this category, said Entertainment Weekly. Other "safe bets" include the "long overdue" Guy Pearce for his supporting role in "The Brutalist", and the "relative unknown" Yuriy Borisov who will "go along for the ride", given his well-received performance in "Anora".

"Kieran Culkin has emerged as a steamrolling candidate in the supporting actor race," said Variety. He's already been awarded many accolades for his "nuanced, deeply emotional turn" as Benji Kaplan in "A Real Pain", and his success will likely continue. But that "doesn't mean it's a done deal"; breakout star Clarence Maclin is "still viable for significant recognition" following his turn in "Sing Sing", for which he has already bagged Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham Awards.

Best actress in a supporting role

Zoe Saldaña's "commanding turn" as Rita, "a lawyer entangled with a drug cartel boss" in "Emilia Perez", has caused quite a stir, said Variety. She looks set to be one of this year's "near-certain" nominees in this fiercely competitive category. But Ariana Grande's portrayal of Glinda in "Wicked" will also "force Oscar voters – and sceptics – to take notice". Her "effervescent portrayal of the iconic 'good witch'", will likely bag her a nomination and, "dare we say, a win".

Following her infamous "Till" snub at last year's awards, Danielle Deadwyler may finally receive a nomination for her "equally deserving" efforts in "The Piano Lesson", added Entertainment Weekly.

Other contenders include Monica Barbaro for her "delightfully assured" portrayal of Joan Baez in "A Complete Unknown", and any of the stars from "His Three Daughters", but "especially" Natasha Lyonne, said Marcus Jones in Indie Wire.