Oscar predictions 2025: who will win?

Oscars season is here and, with nominations announced on 17 January, it's time to make some "bold" predictions, said Screen Rant. While certain films are "well positioned" to win, with various sets of data enabling "educated projections", it's important to remember that "there is always room for surprises".

Last year, "Oppenheimer" dominated the Oscars, scooping seven prizes including best film, best actor and best director (Christopher Nolan's first Oscar). Will this year's awards be as clear cut? Here's what the critics are saying.

Best picture

"Award-winning festival standouts" "Anora" and "Conclave" have emerged as the "cream of the crop", while "The Brutalist" is also a strong contender, said Entertainment Weekly. The Academy's growing "international voting base" means "Emilia Pérez" is likely building significant "behind-the-scenes support". It took home the Golden Globe for best picture (musical or comedy) earlier this month and, while the race for the Academy Award seems "fairly wide open", said Variety, this is the film that is "gaining traction" as the race heats up.

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The Golden Globe success of Jacques Audiard's musical thriller made "Anora" the award ceremony's "biggest loser", said US entertainment site Vulture, but hold off writing its obituary. Sean Baker's film about a sex worker from Brooklyn who marries the son of an oligarch has won the Palme d'Or from Cannes, as well as nominations from the Screen Actors Guild Awards, NBR, Gotham Awards, AFI and Film Independent Spirit Awards. "Wicked" has also started to "climb up prediction charts", having been awarded Best Film from NBR. Universal's film adaptation of the hit Broadway musical will appeal to voters looking for a more "feel-good movie".

Best director

While Variety predicts Brady Corbet will scoop best director for "The Brutalist", The Hollywood Reporter changed its forecast following the Globes. Previously tipping Edward Berger for "Conclave", his mystery thriller about the selection of a new pope, it now reckons Audiard is the one to watch.

Although many voters will back one of a "handful of filmmakers behind the year's most-praised pictures", there are usually "one or two surprises" in the Best Director category, said Entertainment Weekly. The global voting base might see an "international director squeezing past more well-known directors"; French filmmaker Coralie Fargeat could land herself a spot this year with her body horror "visionary spectacle", "The Substance".

Best actor in a leading role

Looking through the list of previous Oscar winners who bagged best actor for playing a music legend, you can "easily be persuaded" that this could be Timothée Chalamet's year for his "convincing" portrayal of Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown", said Glenn Whipp in the Los Angeles Times. This would make him one of the youngest-ever Oscar winners.

Voters will also "almost certainly" nominate Colman Domingo for his performance as an inmate serving time for a crime he didn't commit in "deeply moving" prison drama, "Sing Sing". Last year, Domingo received a nomination for his portrayal of gay civil rights activist Bayard Rustin in Netflix's eponymous biopic but lost out to Cillian Murphy for his starring role in "Oppenheimer".

"Falling behind Chalamet for now is Ralph Fiennes," said Hood in Screen Rant. While he's been nominated for an Oscar twice, it's been almost three decades since he was last recognised. Still, if voters decide to favour a "legacy angle", he could "emerge victorious" for his role as Cardinal Lawrence in "Conclave".

Best actress in a leading role

Angelina Jolie's turn as "ill-fated opera singer Maria Callas" in "Maria" could scoop her the Best Actress award, said Entertainment Weekly, with her "superstar status" perhaps bagging her Oscar number three. But rising star Mikey Madison "occupies the other side of that coin": a nomination for her leading role in "Anora" would mark the "budding" actress's "first nod at the top of a promising career".

After an "ice-cold rejection" at the Globes, the chances of winning are "microscopic" for Jolie, said the New York Post, as well as for Nicole Kidman, once a front-runner for her role as a high-powered CEO who has an affair with a younger man in "Babygirl".

Variety is forecasting Cynthia Erivo to win Best Actress for her starring role as Elphaba in "Wicked". The British actress was shortlisted for the Golden Globes best female actor in a comedy or musical film; if nominated for an Oscar she would become the second Black woman in history to earn two lead actress nominations.

Demi Moore is "absolutely deserving" of a nomination for her leading role in "The Substance", said Screen Rant. While the film doesn't tick the typical boxes as an Oscar contender, Moore's powerful performance, and her Best Actress Golden Globe, has moved her up from "outsider" in the race.

Best actor in a supporting role

Denzel Washington's widely praised performance in "Gladiator II" feels like a "sure thing" for a nomination in this category, said Entertainment Weekly. Other "safe bets" include the "long overdue" Guy Pearce for his supporting role in "The Brutalist" – although Screen Rant says co-star Adrien Brody is "back in the driver's seat" following his Globes win – and the "relative unknown" Yuriy Borisov who will "go along for the ride", given his well-received performance in "Anora".

"Kieran Culkin has emerged as a steamrolling candidate in the supporting actor race," said Variety. He's already been awarded many accolades for his "nuanced, deeply emotional turn" as Benji Kaplan in "A Real Pain", and his success will likely continue. But that "doesn't mean it's a done deal"; breakout star Clarence Maclin is "still viable for significant recognition" following his turn in "Sing Sing", for which he has already bagged Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham Awards.

Best actress in a supporting role

Zoe Saldaña's "commanding turn" as Rita, "a lawyer entangled with a drug cartel boss" in "Emilia Pérez", has caused quite a stir, said Variety. She looks set to be one of this year's "near-certain" nominees in this fiercely competitive category. But Ariana Grande's portrayal of Glinda in "Wicked" will also "force Oscar voters – and sceptics – to take notice". Her "effervescent portrayal of the iconic 'good witch'", will likely bag her a nomination and, "dare we say, a win".

Following her infamous "Till" snub at last year's awards, Danielle Deadwyler may finally receive a nomination for her "equally deserving" efforts in "The Piano Lesson", added Entertainment Weekly.

Other contenders include Monica Barbaro for her "delightfully assured" portrayal of Joan Baez in "A Complete Unknown", and any of the stars from "His Three Daughters", but "especially" Natasha Lyonne, said Marcus Jones in Indie Wire.

Animated feature film

"Gorgeous" films "The Wild Robot" and "Flow" could create shockwaves at this year's ceremony, said Screen Rant. The Academy has previously preferred animations from Walt Disney Animation Studios and Pixar Animation Studios but the "critical acclaim and award success" of these two films could see that come to an end.

"The Wild Robot", DreamWorks Animation's adaptation of Peter Brown's novel about a service robot shipwrecked on an uninhabited island, received a "rapturous reception" at the Toronto Film Festival and stands as the odds-on favourite to win, said the LA Times. However, Gints Zilbalodis's "Flow", the tale of a cat whose home is devastated by a great flood, is "easily the year's best animated film".

Pixar's "Inside Out 2" could be a "possible spoiler" in the race, added the newspaper, and "Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl" from Nick Park, a four-time Oscar-winner, stacks up well against the competition.

Documentary feature film

History could be made if "Eternal Father" wins for The New Yorker, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The tale about a British father who wants to be cryonically frozen when he dies is on the shortlist, and could herald the magazine's first lifting of the coveted statuette after 15 previous nods.

Netflix has three documentaries on the shortlist that are "worth a look", said the LA Times. But out of them, it is tipping "Daughters" – a "moving" look at the Date with Dad project that connects incarcerated men and their daughters – to get this week's nominations. Indeed, said Variety, it the "presumed frontrunner".