Oscar predictions 2026: who is likely to win?

“Sinners” has become the first film in history to win 16 Oscar nominations. Ryan Coogler’s critically acclaimed supernatural thriller, which stars Michael B. Jordan as twin brothers setting up a blues club in 1930s Mississippi, was named in categories including best picture, director and leading actor. Meanwhile, “Wicked: For Good” failed to secure a single nomination, reminding us that the Oscars will always be a hotbed of snubs and surprises. But that doesn’t stop the critics from offering their two pennies’ worth ahead of this year’s big night. Here are their predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards.

Best picture

“It feels mad at this stage to expect the top prize to go anywhere else” but “Sinners”, said Robbie Collin in The Telegraph. But I’m rooting for Josh Safdie’s “addictively madcap” “Marty Supreme”, which stars Timothée Chalamet as an aspiring table tennis player. Its “future classic status already feels assured”.

“One Battle After Another” – which has 13 nominations – is also “dominating the awards conversation”, said Caryn James on the BBC. “How could you not love a film that has Leonardo DiCaprio running around in a bathrobe, hilariously trying to remember the password that would allow a revolutionary group to save his kidnapped daughter?” Despite receiving several nominations over his esteemed career, director Paul Thomas Anderson has “mysteriously” never won an Oscar – but his latest film is “by far, the year’s hottest awards contender”.

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Other nominations for the best picture category include Chloé Zhao’s adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel “Hamnet”, the Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia”.

Best director

Anderson has “racked up 11 Oscar nominations” during his career but he’s yet to “have his name called from the Dolby Theatre Stage”, said Clayton Davis in Variety. But his latest offering, “One Battle After Another”, could “finally deliver that elusive statue”. Coogler is also a frontrunner, after being named runner-up for best director at the LAFCA Awards earlier in December for “Sinners”. Both, unsurprisingly, received Oscar nominations for 2026, as did Joachim Trier for “Sentimental Value”, Zhao for “Hamnet” and Safdie for “Marty Supreme”.

Best actor in a leading role

Ethan Hawke put in his “finest screen performance” since “Boyhood” as Broadway legend Lorenz Hart in “Blue Moon”, giving himself a “renewed shot at the Oscar that has so far eluded him”, said Matt Wolf on The Arts Desk. He is competing with DiCaprio and Chalamet, for their starring roles in “One Battle After Another” and “Marty Supreme” respectively.

“Eek, this is tight,” said Collin in The Telegraph. But I think Chalamet should win. Both “deeply moving” and “outrageously funny”, his portrayal of Marty Mauser is like a “living dissertation on the human condition”.

Best actress in a leading role

Jessie Buckley is “out front” for her “emotionally charged” portrayal of Agnes in “Hamnet”, said Joey Nolfi on Entertainment Weekly. “Hot on her tail” is Renate Reinsve for her role in “Sentimental Value”.

Rose Byrne is “impossible to look away from” in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”, said Dana Stevens on Slate. She has been nominated for her starring role as a stressed mother and therapist in Mary Bronstein’s “descent-into-hell motherhood drama”. And Emma Stone is in the running, too, for her role as a kidnapped pharmaceutical executive in “Bugonia”.

Kate Hudson also received a “surprise nod” for her starring role in the “under-the-radar” musical love story “Song Sung Blue”, said Adam White in The Independent. I’m willing to stick my neck out and say “it was actually one of the better nominations”. It’s a moving film and Hudson is “particularly lovely” in it. “She is the movie, and you miss her enormously when she’s not on screen.”

Best actor in a supporting role

Sean Penn “kicked up the intensity” with his “bold” turn as a military officer in “One Battle After Another”, said Nolfi in Entertainment Weekly. While his “brash” performance could “rub some the wrong way”, it definitely captured audiences’ attention.

But he will face stiff competition from Benicio del Toro in “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Value”. Paul Mescal as Shakespeare in “Hamnet” was notably snubbed. This is “one of the year’s most volatile” and “best races to watch”, said James on the BBC.

Best actress in a supporting role

After “such a strong” performance as a revolutionary in “One Battle After Another”, this race seems to be Teyana Taylor’s to lose, said Entertainment Weekly. She will be vying for the top spot alongside Wunmi Mosaku for her “incredible” turn in “Sinners”.

While horror films are often “dismissed” at the Oscars, said James on the BBC, Amy Madigan managed to secure a best supporting actress nomination for her role in Zach Cregger’s “spine-chilling” “Weapons”.

Elle Fanning also picked up a “surprise” nomination for her supporting role in “Sentimental Value”, said Radhika Seth in Vogue, after being “snubbed” last year for her turn in “A Complete Unknown”. As the competition heated up in the category it seemed like she might miss out, but she managed to impress with her “sensitive” portrayal of American actress Rachel Kemp.