Oscar predictions 2025: who is likely to win?

Oscar voting has finally come to a close, with film-lovers getting the popcorn ready for the big day. And while "pundits and awards obsessives are clinging to precedent", looking to the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and BAFTA winners for last-minute predictions, "plenty of question marks remain", said Variety.

After "Oppenheimer" dominated the Oscars in 2024, this year's Academy Awards have "a far more unpredictable playing field" with "a wide spread of possibilities", said Fader magazine.

The flurry of Critics Choice, Producers and Directors Guild awards cleared the field a bit, with “Anora” emerging as a fierce contender. "Suddenly, thanks to the film’s DGA and Producers Guild wins, ‘Anora’ has become the film to beat as awards season heads toward the 97th Oscars," said Forbes, just after the ceremonies.

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But BAFTA voters "decided to shake things up" on 16 February, shelling out Best Film to "Conclave" and Best Director to Brady Corbet of "The Brutalist", said Deadline. "The Brits had other ideas, handing ‘Anora’ only a Casting statuette … before, in a bit of a shocker, at the end anointing star Mikey Madison Lead Actress over favourite Demi Moore", reported the publication.

Here's who the critics are backing as the big night approaches.

Best picture

In nominations, "Emilia Pérez" has "come out on top", raking in 13, said Screen Rant. Only 11 other films have previously won at least 13 nods and, of them, seven took home the Best Picture statue. The "unusual musical” succeeded “thanks to its unique story and impressive talent", but close contenders include "The Brutalist" and "Wicked", with 10 nominations each.

That doesn't mean "Emilia Pérez" will triumph, of course. "Anora", for one, has plenty of support, and the Directors, Producers and Writers Guild awards suggest “we finally have a clear best picture Oscar front-runner after several weeks during which at least six films seemed to have a viable path to that ultimate prize,” said The Hollywood Reporter.

The film, following a sex worker from Brooklyn who marries the son of an oligarch, "is not your typical awards-season contender", said Esquire. But it could follow previous fellow Palme d'Or winners including "Parasite", "Triangle of Sadness" and "Anatomy of a Fall" in bagging the big one – especially after bagging the top prize at both the Producers and Directors Guild Awards.

"The film that takes those two major industry prizes almost always goes on to win the best-picture Oscar," said The New York Times.

In contrast, "The Brutalist" seems "tailor-made for a Best Picture win", said Games Radar – though there is a "spanner in the works". The film has been met with controversy over its use of AI to enhance actors' Hungarian accents.

The BAFTAs threw a new contender into play, too, with "Conclave" winning big – it took Best Film, Best British Film, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing, "giving Focus renewed hope that it might still wind up with its first best picture Oscar winner", said The Hollywood Reporter.

Nominations
"Anora"
"The Brutalist"
"A Complete Unknown"
"Conclave"
"Dune: Part Two"
"Emilia Pérez"
"I'm Still Here"
"Nickel Boys"
"The Substance"
"Wicked"

Best director

"The Brutalist" director Brady Corbet’s win at the Golden Globes last month "propelled him to front-runner status" in the Best Director category, said IndieWire – "especially when voters consider the scale of storytelling he was able to achieve on a tight budget". And his Best Director triumph at the BAFTAs only solidified his standing. Early success for “Anora” had moved director Sean Baker to the front of the list, but after a couple of weekends with mixed results, his path to victory has become less clear.

Plus, "twin surprises" of "The Substance" director Coralie Fargeat gaining a nomination and "Conclave" director Edward Berger being left out made this "one of the most discussed categories".

While "The Substance" "is the kind of visionary, stylish, brazen" film that "this highbrow group of voters prefers to recognise, "‘Conclave’ may have actually been punished for its commercial success ", said Vanity Fair. The Academy "can get a little snobby ", after all.

Nominations
Sean Baker, "Anora"
Brady Corbet, "The Brutalist"
James Mangold, "A Complete Unknown"
Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"

Best actor in a leading role

Looking through the long list of those who have won Best Actor for playing a music legend, you might "easily be persuaded" that this could be Timothée Chalamet's year, said Glenn Whipp in the Los Angeles Times. If his "convincing" portrayal of Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown" wins Chalamet the Oscar, he would be the youngest recipient of the award.

Yet a few months ago, Adrien Brody seemed to have this category "all wrapped up", said GamesRadar. Especially after his BAFTA win, Brody is still in the race, even with the AI controversy hanging over his performance, said Far Out: only the "naive" think "there are still filmmakers out there who do not use AI".

The surprise nomination in this category is Sebastian Stan, who plays a young Trump in "The Apprentice". Although he is "the least likely to win", he has done some "outstanding work" over the last year, said Screen Rant.

Nominations
Adrien Brody, "The Brutalist"
Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"
Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"
Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"
Sebastian Stan, "The Apprentice"

Best actress in a leading role

Demi Moore’s nomination for her role in “The Substance” cemented Screen Rant’s bold prediction in December – the publication said her performance marked “a great comeback”, even if her odds “of pulling off a win are next to impossible”.

Nevertheless, Vanity Fair has called her the "perceived front-runner" in the category.

But "BAFTA also delivered one of the ceremony’s biggest shockers", said Variety. In winning leading actress, Mikey Madison achieved "a jaw-dropping upset, dethroning the heavily favoured" Moore. "v."

Once also front-runners, neither Angelina "Maria" Jolie or Nicole "Babygirl" Kidman scored a nomination from the Academy voters. British actress Cynthia Erivo was shortlisted for her role as Elphaba in "Wicked", making her the second Black woman in history to earn two lead actress nominations.

Karla Sofía Gascón made history with her shortlisting, becoming the first out transgender actor to be Oscar-nominated, said The Guardian, (Elliot Page had not transitioned when he was nominated for "Juno" in 2008). But recent backlash over her past comments on social media may have put her out of contention.

For the first time since 1978, all five nominated actresses come from films that are also in the running for Best Film, said Kyle Buchanan in The New York Times. "This is the strongest best-actress line-up we’ve had in ages" and they each have a "solid shot".

Nominations
Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"
Karla Sofía Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"
Mikey Madison, "Anora"
Demi Moore, "The Substance"
Fernanda Torres, "I’m Still Here"

Best actor in a supporting role

Despite Denzel Washington's widely praised performance in "Gladiator II" making his nomination a "sure thing", according to Entertainment Weekly, his name was missing from the final line-up. The site was right, though, to top the "long overdue" Guy Pearce for a nomination for his supporting role in "The Brutalist", as well as the "relative unknown" Yuriy Borisov for his well-received performance in "Anora".

Kieran Culkin "is buzzing at the opportunity for an Oscar" for his role as Benji Kaplan in Jesse Eisenberg's Holocaust tour black comedy "A Real Pain", said Esquire. He is a "current front-runner" for MovieWeb, with Pearce hot on his heels, while The Hollywood Reporter have him and Yura Borisov of "Anora" neck and neck. His win at the BAFTAs propelled him to the front of many outlets’ lists.

Nominations
Yura Borisov, "Anora"
Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"
Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"
Guy Pearce, "The Brutalist"
Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"

Best actress in a supporting role

Zoe Saldaña's turn as Rita, a lawyer entangled with a drug cartel boss in "Emilia Pérez", has caused quite a stir and, according to ScreenRant, many have long realised that the race in this category will be between Saldaña and Ariana Grande, who played Glinda, the future Good Witch of Oz, in "Wicked".

Saldaña is "seemingly now ahead", especially after securing a BAFTA success, but Grande could pull off a shock win. If she did, she would be the Best Supporting Actress with the longest time onscreen in a film: a record 44.59% of the runtime.

Monica Barbaro's nomination, for her portrayal of Joan Baez in "A Complete Unknown", was one of the shocks in this category – not least to the actress herself. The 34-year-old star, who didn't make her feature film debut until 2021's "The Cathedral", was "literally floored upon receiving the news", she told fans on Instagram.

Nominations
Monica Barbaro, "A Complete Unknown"
Ariana Grande, "Wicked"
Felicity Jones, "The Brutalist"
Isabella Rossellini, "Conclave"
Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"

Animated feature film

Screen Rant may be right in its prediction that "gorgeous" films "The Wild Robot" and "Flow" could create shockwaves at this year's ceremony, after they both were nominated. The Academy has previously preferred animations from Walt Disney Animation Studios and Pixar Animation Studios, but the "critical acclaim" for these two films could see that come to an end.

"The Wild Robot", DreamWorks Animation's adaptation of Peter Brown's novel about a service robot shipwrecked on an uninhabited island, received a "rapturous reception" at the Toronto Film Festival and is the LA Times' odds-on favourite to win. However, Gints Zilbalodis's "Flow", the tale of a cat whose home is devastated by a great flood, is "easily the year's best animated film".

"Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl" picked up a win at the BAFTAs, "as it was always expected to", said The Guardian. "A chance for Nick Park to give a second, more structured speech? Nope, he didn’t write one so he riffs on the patience of animators and more importantly their loved ones. Very sweet."

It is a "tight race", but IndieWire has narrowly put its money on "The Wild Robot" to triumph, after news that its team were also nominated for Best Sound and Best Score.

Nominations
"Flow"
"Inside Out 2"
"Memoir of a Snail"
"Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl"
"The Wild Robot"

Documentary feature film

Each of the film-makers in this list are first-time nominees "and only one is American", noted Deadline. That is Brendan Bellomo from California, the man behind "Porcelain War", a film about the Ukraine war and a winner at the 2024 Sundance Festival. Bellomo and partner Slava Leontyev took home the DGA on 8 February, making a win more likely.

There is one clear winner for the team at Next Best Picture, though: the Palestinian-Israeli documentary "No Other Land", about life in the rural West Bank area of Masafer Yatta, and the growing alliance between Palestinian activist Basel Adra and Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham. As well as winning critical acclaim, it has scooped several top awards around the world, including the Berlinale Documentary Award and this year's Bafta for Best Documentary.

Former favourites "Eternal Father", backed by The Hollywood Reporter, and "Daughters", which had the thumbs-up from the LA Times, failed to make it through to the final line-up.

Nominations
"Black Box Diaries"
"No Other Land"
"Porcelain War"
"Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat"
"Sugarcane"

Best Costume Design

This year's nominees took viewers on "voyages" to "the magical world of Oz, 19th-century Transylvania, early 1960s New York City, Vatican City and ancient Rome", said The New York Times. Paul Tazewell's nod for "Wicked" faces "some stiff competition", with "Gladiator II"'s Janty Yates having lifted the trophy in 2001. Whether Yates is victorious again or not, her costume design for this film has already left a legacy: the "leggy leather battle skirt" worn by Paul Mescal "went viral online" and sent his fans "into rhapsody".

Nominations
"A Complete Unknown"
"Conclave"
"Gladiator II"
"Nosferatu"
"Wicked"