Is there an ominous parallel between Taiwan and Ukraine?
Xi Jinping has described the ‘reunification’ of China as Beijing’s ‘historical task’
“Will today’s Ukraine be tomorrow’s Taiwan?” That’s the burning question being asked here in Taipei, said Chen Yun-yu in Central News Agency (Taipei). Both Ukraine and Taiwan are cursed with neighbours with “imperial ambitions” who think nothing of subverting “the rules-based international order” – not to mention “basic principles of right and wrong”. And, like Vladimir Putin with Ukraine, China’s President Xi Jinping has used increasingly strident rhetoric to frighten Taiwan, often describing the “reunification” of China as Beijing’s “historical task”.
The parallel is spooking the US, too, said Liberty Times Net (Taipei). Last week, sparking anger in Beijing, President Biden sent a delegation of former defence officials to Taiwan to show his support. “An obvious provocation,” Chinese state media called it. Yet given the way things have played out with Russia and Ukraine, it was an entirely understandable move.
There are clearly parallels, said David Spencer in Taiwan News (Taipei). But a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be “vastly more complex and challenging” than Russia’s of Ukraine. Russia shares a 1,200-mile land border with its neighbour, whereas Taiwan is 100 miles off China’s coast and has “very few” beaches where troops could easily land. And those that are suitable are well defended.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
More importantly, said the Taipei Times, Xi is unlikely to risk the economic fallout an invasion would bring. China’s economy is so closely integrated with the rest of the world’s that sanctions against it would likely carry a “far more acute sting” than those imposed on Russia. And as Taiwan is the world’s biggest producer of semi-conductors, a Chinese attack would risk devastating consequences for Beijing and the world economy.
Even so, Taiwan isn’t as invulnerable to invasion as some make out, said Hilton Yip in Foreign Policy (Washington). Its soft military conscription regime – mandatory for a measly four months – is widely considered “a joke”. And its army and air force is plagued by operational problems: one of its F-16 fighter jets crashed into the sea in January, the latest in a series of fatal accidents. Besides, it’s “almost an open secret that Taiwan’s main hope of overcoming a Chinese attack” rests on military support from an increasingly reluctant US.
Still, the show of Western unity over Ukraine will have given Xi pause for thought, said Sven Hauberg in Merkur (Munich). One thing’s for certain: Beijing will be “watching very closely” to see how the Ukraine crisis evolves in the weeks and months ahead.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
The history of Donald Trump's election conspiracy theories
The Explainer How the 2024 Republican nominee has consistently stoked baseless fears of a stolen election
By David Faris Published
-
Two ancient cities have been discovered along the Silk Road
Under the radar The discovery changed what was known about the old trade route
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
'People shouldn't have to share the road with impaired drivers'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
The North Korean troops readying for deployment in Ukraine
The Explainer Third country wading into conflict would be 'the first step to a world war' Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned
By The Week UK Published
-
Experts call for a Nato bank to 'Trump-proof' military spending
Under The Radar A new lender could aid co-operation and save millions of pounds, say think tanks
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
What happens if Russia declares war on Nato?
Today's Big Question Fears are growing after Vladimir Putin's 'unusually specific warning' to Western governments
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Missile escalation: will long-range rockets make a difference to Ukraine?
Today's Big Question Kyiv is hoping for permission to use US missiles to strike deep into Russian territory
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
Atesh: the Ukrainian partisans taking on Russia
Under The Radar Underground resistance fighters are risking their lives to defend their country
By Elizabeth Carr-Ellis, The Week UK Published
-
'Second only to a nuclear bomb' – the controversial arms Russia is using in Ukraine
The Explainer Thermobaric bombs 'capable of vaporising human bodies' have been used against Ukraine
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
The peaceful archipelago that may take up arms
Under The Radar Russia's invasion of Ukraine has left the Åland Islands 'peculiarly vulnerable'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
What can Ukraine gain from Russia incursion?
Today's Big Question Gamble to boost morale, improve negotiating position and show the West it can still win is 'paying off – for now'
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published